Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - GoldCore
2.Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Why British Muslims Are Leaving Elysium Paradise for Syrian Hell - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - Zeal_LLC
6.European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - Michael_Noonan
8.Gold and Silver Price Headed for Breakdown - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
9.Greece Crisis OXI - Raul_I_Meijer
10.Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - Doug_Wakefield
Last 5 days
Forget Drachmas Greece Syriza Government Could Instruct Central Bank to Print Euros! - 2nd July 15
Greece Debt Crisis Trigger for Stock Market Crash or Bull Rally? Video - 1st July 15
Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low - 1st July 15
SPX Stock Market Retracement May be Over - 1st July 15
Silver Tunnel Vision 'Experts' - 1st July 15
Gold And Silver - Monthly, Quarterly Ending Analysis - 1st July 15
Europe’s Controlled Demolition - 1st July 15
The End of Dow 18,000; Bailouts No Longer Extended  - 1st July 15
Athens Mayor: Greek Government Should Resign - 1st July 15
China Stocks - This Is What a Bubble Looks Like - 30th June 15
Stocks Plunge on Greece Euro-Zone Financial Armageddon Blackmail - 30th June 15
Greece Crisis Shows Importance of Gold as Europeans Buy Coins and Bars - 30th June 15
Stock Investors Express Route to Profits in the Healthcare Sector - 30th June 15
Beyond the Greek Impasse - 30th June 15
Gold GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending - 30th June 15
Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold - 30th June 15
Marc Faber - Greece is Basically Bankrupt - 30th June 15
Greece - Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm - 29th June 15
Grexit?, BIS Warning, Chinese Market Crash & Systemic Risk Shake the Global Economy - 29th June 15
The New "Sharing Economy" May Not Be the Profit Bonanza Everyone's Expecting - 29th June 15
Gold and Silver Greece and Short Positions - 29th June 15
Volatility and Sleep-Walking Markets - 29th June 15
Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - 29th June 15
Stock Market More Decline Ahead? - 29th June 15
China Stock Market Crackup - The Final Trap Looms... - 29th June 15
Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - 28th June 15
Investor Stock Play for Two Growing Missile Threats - 28th June 15
Stock Market Uptrend/downtrend Inflection Point - 27th June 15
Greece Crisis OXI - 27th June 15
Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - 27th June 15
It’s Time to Change the Way You Look at Disney Forever - 27th June 15
Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - 27th June 15
Stock Market Investors Avoid the "Herd" Like the Plague - 26th June 15
Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - 26th June 15
USD Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions - 26th June 15
Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - 26th June 15
Gold and Silver - Another Successful Option Expiration For the Insiders - 26th June 15
Why Buffett Bet A Billion On Solar Energy - 26th June 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

China Stocks - Where are they going?

Contrarian Sentiment Indicator Says Stock Markets Have Bottomed

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment Nov 23, 2012 - 10:17 AM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Stock-Markets

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Over the last decade, this idea has been "a perfect contrary indicator," my friend Jason Goepfert explained on Monday.

Jason runs the excellent SentimenTrader website – my go-to site for all things "sentiment."



When this indicator has signaled in the past, it's delivered incredible returns in the next two months. (There's only been one exception.) And it just signaled again.

Before I tell you about its specific results, let me show you why it works...

To me, investor sentiment is the most useful way of determining when a market will bottom. Measuring sentiment is more art than science – but Jason has made it as scientific as possible.

Investor sentiment data is most useful – by far – when it is at extremes. The basic idea is this:

When EVERYONE is scared and has sold, it's almost time to buy.

Sentiment indicators are "contrary" indicators because you're buying when fear is at its peak. And right now, according to this particular indicator, one important group of investors is extremely scared... newsletter writers!

It turns out newsletter writers are good contrary indicators. When they are all telling their readers to sell, it's almost time to buy.

Importantly, according to one of Jason's indicators, newsletter writers are really scared. It's time to buy.

I can't divulge the specifics of the indicator (it wouldn't be fair to Jason's paying subscribers). But over the last 10 years, it's had a nearly perfect track record, with 2008 as the only exception. As Jason explained on his website on November 19...

Of the 17 weeks during the other nine years, the S&P sported a positive return over the next two months every time, averaging 4.8%-plus.

The market tended to bottom right away – the maximum loss averaged only -0.1% while the maximum gain averaged 7.3%-plus.

So far, Jason's indicator has been exactly right... After falling for six-straight weeks, the Nasdaq stock index is up again, right on cue, following this latest signal.

I published the latest issue of my True Wealth newsletter last Friday. I didn't have the benefit of this indicator to go on... but I fully agree with Jason. Here's what I wrote:

While the stock market has really taken it on the chin in the last month, I'm still positive... We've just gone through a small correction. Based on investor sentiment numbers, I think we're through the worst of it. Investors are no longer overly optimistic... This is a small correction in the great Bernanke Asset Bubble.

I stand behind my analysis... And Jason's indicator is one more confirmation that this correction in stocks is over.

Trade accordingly...

Good investing,

Steve

P.S. "Since the 2009 market bottom," Jason explains, "the indicator has reached this extreme three times, and all three were perfect inflection points." For more on Jason's work – and the other important indicators he uses to track sentiment – visit his site at www.SentimenTrader.com. (We get no compensation for mentioning SentimenTrader.)

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2011 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History