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UK Floods, Worst Flooding Since 2007, Extreme Weather Global Weirding?

Politics / Environmental Issues Nov 25, 2012 - 05:58 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The UK looks set to experience its worst series of floods since at least the great floods of 2007 when areas that had never flooded in living memory experienced what would turn out to be their worst floods in over 150 years.

The latest of a series of heavy rain fall induced flooding is being experienced by the south and south west areas of England and Wales, with over 500 flood warnings in place nation wide, as one of the wettest summers on record had left the ground saturated, unable to soak up additional heavy rain fall that is resulting in the failure of drainage systems.

The current wave of flooding follows on from highly damaging flooding earlier in the year (September) that literally resulted in roads and foundations of buildings being washed away that were subsequently demolished.

The following Met Office graph illustrates the increasing volatility in the extremes of weather that the UK is facing as a drought during the first 3 months of the year gave way extraordinarily heavy rainfall from April onwards, continuing in June, and July with rainfall of as much as 225% of the annual average. The Above average rainfall has continued into this month which looks set to turn out to be another record month for rainfall.

How Does the Current Years Rainfall Compare to 2007?

The below graph illustrates that this years rainfall looks set to be far worse than that of 2007, as in 2007 the high rainfall was mainly concentrated during the 3 Summer months of May, June, and July.

Therefore there is a continuing risk of severe flooding going into the final month of the year which means that this year could turn out to be far more costly in terms of flood damage than was 2007 as any further heavy rainfall will have nowhere to run off to. With the likelihood of a continuation of the trend into early 2013.

The Great Flood of 2007

The following video illustrates the timeline from before the start, during and counting the costs in the aftermath of the worst flooding in 150 years that took place in the city of Sheffield in June 2007.

Householders Protect Your Property - Ensure Gutters and Drains are Not Blocked

Whilst there is little that people can do protect against river banks bursting, however house holders can protect against the consequences of heavy rainfall and therefore should quickly survey their properties during pauses in the rainfall to ensure that gutters and drains are not blocked, as well as protecting any areas of the property such as garage doors that could flood during heavy rainfall.

Global Weirding - Climate Change Means Expect Weather Extremes

As was the case during the first four months of the year, the UK must brace itself for freezing and volatile temperature ranges as a consequence of climate change that is resulting in what has been termed as global weirding.

What is Global Weirding?

It is melting of the sea ice at the north and south poles that effects atmospheric air current circulations such as diverting the Jet Stream which means instead of warm air flowing form the Gulf of Mexico we get cold air blowing in from the North East polar region, and hence whilst on average the planet warms as a consequence of global warming, in the UK our weather becomes far more erratic as the Jet Stream literally twists and turns and develops random kinks which means one day we can experience far warmer than average temperatures for the year and the next day we could be an for an arctic freeze.

The consequence of global warming / weirding for the people of Britain this winter is to expect very erratic temperature changes, which means be prepared for surprise deep freezes that are likely to even catch the weather forecasters off guard as a consequences of of global weirding over the coming winter months and well into the new year. This will likely result in further severe risk for flooding due to quick thawing of deep snowfall.

Insulate and Weather Proof Homes

Now is the the time for home owners to prepare properties for the coming winter months by insulating and weatherproofing, i.e. as little as £100 spent now could save many times that over the coming months both in terms of energy costs and repair bills.

Source and Comments:

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2012 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook DownloadThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook DownloadThe Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Download

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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