Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
Damn the Deficits, Huge Trump Tax Cuts Ahead! - 29th Apr 17
Gold Hostage to Stocks - 29th Apr 17
Warren Buffett Hates Gold… But Here’s Five Reasons You Need To Own It - 29th Apr 17
Stock Market Sentiment, Re-Fueled Along the Way - 28th Apr 17
Calling out the Central Bankers - 28th Apr 17
Fed's Third Inetrest Rate Hike and Gold - 28th Apr 17
USD/CAD - Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally? - 28th Apr 17
What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - 28th Apr 17
Earth Overshoot Day - Human Population Growth - 28th Apr 17
Misunderstanding GDXJ: Why It’s Actually Great News For Junior Miners - 28th Apr 17
What Makes Bitcoin Casinos So Remarkable? - 28th Apr 17
Financial Markets Improvised Explosives - 27th Apr 17
More Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Stocks Get Close To Record High - 27th Apr 17
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory Enough? - 27th Apr 17
Billionaire Investor Paul Tudor Jones Says Stock Market Valuation Is “Terrifying” And He Is Right - 26th Apr 17
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France - 26th Apr 17
10 Facts That Show Our Taxes Are Worse Than You Thought - 26th Apr 17
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like - 26th Apr 17
G20: SURPASSING THE 2nd GLOBAL STEEL CRISIS - 26th Apr 17
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Currency Wars, Trading $ Driver, Forecasts 2013

Currencies / Forex Trading Nov 26, 2012 - 09:49 AM GMT

By: Gordon_T_Long

Currencies

Since September, the Currency Wars have escalated. It isn't just because of the seminal monetary events of the Federal Reserve's QE III "unlimited" and the ECB's OMT "Uncapped". It is highly likely, more about the fact that China announced its eleventh agreement that effectively bypasses using the US dollar with China's strategic trading partners. The latest agreement with Russia places trading oil, in non-US dollars, into the spotlight. The infamous petrodollar has had its destructive profile raised.


The Petrodollar has long been the cornerstone that solidified the US dollar as the key currency reserve holding. The Petrodollar strategy is arguably more important that the Bretton Woods agreement which officially made the US dollar the world's reserve currency at the end of WW II. This is now being called into question. Minimally, it suggests a weakened requirement for holdings of the current levels of US dollars in sovereign reserve accounts.

For the sake of space I won't lay out all the details of this but instead refer you to two recent video releases I have produced and participated in on the subject.

  • Currency Wars: The Failing Petro$$ Strategy  - YouTube
  • Triffin's Paradox & the Rule of Law - YouTube

What is important to Traders is what it means to your trading strategy in the short to intermediate term. To Investors it has profound longer term consequences.

To determine short term effects, we first need to understand the relationship of the Driver$ involved. The three critical currency relationships near term are the US$, the € and the ¥. Then we need to understand how they will effect US Treasury yields.

First however it is important to understand the controlling mechanism of global fiat currencies.

THE $67 TRILLION SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM (The Fiat Currency Control Block)

The Global Economy is approximately $70 Trillion. According to a just released report by the Financial Stability Authority (FSA), charged with investigating it globally, the Global Shadow Banking System was $67T in 2011.



It is up a staggering $6T in 2011.

This means that unofficial, unregulated, offshore entities now effectively control the pricing of global fiat currencies. Through the $637 Trillion SWAP market (also unregulated and offshore trading currency, interest & credit default swaps) they in turn control global interest rates.

The major currency domiciles within the Shadow Banking Industry. It's called absolute control.



 ¥: The Early December Japanese Election is likely to result in dramatically increased BOJ Liquidity, Negative yields and the political process dictating to the Bank of Japan in attempt to devalue the Yen for competitive trade advantage as the Japanese trade balance worsens.

 $: A political resolution to the Fiscal Cliff that results in a Credit Downgrade of US Debt.

 €: Though the € will rise relative to the dollar and Yen it is more about the resumption of the Yen Carry Trade and a slowing of the "Flight to Safety" Trade dominating the EU for months.

EURO:YEN

Consider first the Euro : Yen Cross



The rising green arrow in the above graphic is more about a planned and managed attempt at weakening the Yen than strength in the Euro.

The YEN must be weakened as its strength is crippling Japan's export economy.

The Yen will soon start weakening SIGNIFICANTLY against the Euro



EURO: US$


EU-EURO SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS (charts below):

o The present strategy in the EU is a "Political Union" and to change the treaty accord to put EU "teeth" into countries having to take stronger actions to bring their debt within EU targets. There is no solution given on how the EU does this other than austerity, which almost assures economic weakness and possible collapse going forward. Expect increasing broad based social unrest.

o The hidden and real reason for this is to change the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) to allow it to become the "lender of last resort". This is an euphemism for 'allowed to print money'. The mandate of the ECB is different than the US Federal Reserve and the hidden agenda is to change this.

o As we predicted in previous reports, and is now showing signs of coming to fruition, we expect Spain / Portugal & Italy to soon launch the next and more serious round of the EU crisis. Keep your eye on France and other peripheral nations such as Cyprus, the Netherlands. The fact Poland has deferred Eurozone entry is very telling.

o The only solution for the EU is the ECB monetizing money for funding bailouts. Draghi began this process in September with OMT or SMT2 which is OPEN ended. Support in the German courts and by Merkel suggest the Euro should strengthen somewhat in the near term. It will be more about the YEN and US$ weakening than the Euro strengthening



YEN:US$



US DOLLAR

The final chart show what in fact occurred over the last 30 days and what we presently anticipate:



US TREASURY DEBT & FISCAL CLIFF

This chart shows what we presently anticipate . "THIS IS A MAJOR INFLECTION POINT.

Expect a correction and consolidation."

REMEMBER: Financial Repression is at work here and US Bond Yields and Interest Rates MUST be further reduced.

We presently expect the 10 Year US Treasury Bill to eventually break below 1% which supports the potential target shown above & below.



THIS IS A WELL MANAGED AND CONTROLLED REGRESSION CHANNEL

as the developed world tries to rebalance within global imbalances. 

CONCLUSIONS

The global economy is near stall speed as the already attempted stimulus and monetary policies have failed to deliver. The controllers of the fiat currency camp (US, EU, Japan and UK) must therefore further lower REAL yields and extend duration through central bank guarantees.

They will do this in attempt to buy further time until the 'magical' recovery happens.

Frankly, the politicos know of no other recourse despite it having already failed continuously.

NIRP

Japan has just completed its ninth Quantitative Easing and have concluded ZIRP now needs to be NIRP (negative Interest Rate Policy). It is highly probable that this will reignite the Yen Carry Trade and strengthen the US$. In turn this will hurt equities and compress PE ratios further.

Expect violent counter rallies as the right shoulder is put in, within a long term, 10 year Head and Shoulders pattern.

Traders need to carefully watch the US$, the € and the ¥. cross relationships and credit spreads associated with US Treasury Yield curve and High Yield (HY) "B" rated instruments.

Good luck, and good trading.

Download your FREE TRIAL copy of the latest TRIGGER$
Checkout the GordonTLong.com YouTube Channel for the latest Macro Analytics from expert Guests

Gordon T Long    
Publisher & Editor
general@GordonTLong.com     

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2012 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife