Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Trend Forecast, Where are the Gold Traders? - Bob_Loukas
2.Stocks Bear Market of 2017 Begins? Shorting the Dow At its Peak! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Betting on President Trump Leaving Office Early, Presidency End Date - Betfair Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Stock Market Analysts Will be Wrong About 2017 - Clif_Droke
5.Is This The Best Way For Investors To Play The Electric Car Boom - OilPrice_Com
6.Silver Price 2017 Trend Forecast Update - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Price Set For Very Bullish 2017, Trend Forecast - Austin_Galt
8.10 Things I learned From Meetings With Trump’s Transition Team - - John_Mauldin
9.How Investors Can Profit From Trumps Military Ambitions - OilPrice_Com
10.Channel 4 War on 'Fake News', Forgets Own Alt Reality Propaganda Broadcasting - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Sentiment at ‘Extreme Greed’ - 26th Feb 17
Trump Relinquishes Control of Foreign Policy - 26th Feb 17
[Gratis] "Dark Money" Secrets Revealed! - 26th Feb 17
Stock Market SPX New All-time Highs Continue - 25th Feb 17
POWERFUL GOLD & SILVER COILED SPRINGS: Important Charts You Have To See - 25th Feb 17
Underperformance in Gold Stocks Argues for Interim Peak - 25th Feb 17
Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - 25th Feb 17
Gold Futures Buying Yet to Start - 25th Feb 17
When the Stock Market Flying Pig Tops - 24th Feb 17
Gold, Second Fed Hike and Interest Rates - 24th Feb 17
Bitcoin Price Hits Record High! - 24th Feb 17
Another Stock Market Bubble? Bring it On! - 24th Feb 17
What Investors Need To Know About U.S. Money Market Funds? - 24th Feb 17
When Was America’s Peak Wealth? - 24th Feb 17
The Oscars – Worth Their Weight in Gold? - 24th Feb 17
The Best Reasons to Buy Gold in the Age of Trump - 22nd Feb 17
Silver, The Return of Stagflation - 22nd Feb 17
Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - 22nd Feb 17
Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields - 22nd Feb 17
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry - 22nd Feb 17
Here’s Proof Rising Rates Are Good for Gold - 21st Feb 17
Gold and Silver Weekly Update - 21st Feb 17
US Dollar and Gold Battle of the Cycles - 21st Feb 17
NSA and CIA is the Enemy of the People - 21st Feb 17
Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - 21st Feb 17
Stock Market Uptrend Continues - 21st Feb 17
Brent Crude Oil Price Technical Update: Low Volatility Leads to High Volatility - 20th Feb 17
Trump’s Tax System Could Spark The Wave Of Self-Employment - 20th Feb 17
Here’s How to Stay Ahead of Machines and AI - 20th Feb 17
Warning Signs Of Instability In Russia - 20th Feb 17
Warning: This Energy Investment Could Wreak Havoc On Your Portfolio - 20th Feb 17
The Mother of All Financial Bubbles will be Unimaginably Destructive when it Bursts - 19th Feb 17
Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen - 18th Feb 17
The Flynn Fiascom, the Trump Revolution Ends in a Whimper - 18th Feb 17
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing - 18th Feb 17
SPX Stocks Bull Market Continues to make New Highs - 18th Feb 17
China Disaster to Trigger Gold Run, Trump to Appoint 5 of 7 Fed Governors - 18th Feb 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

State of Global Markets 2017 - Report

Currency Wars, Trading $ Driver, Forecasts 2013

Currencies / Forex Trading Nov 26, 2012 - 09:49 AM GMT

By: Gordon_T_Long

Currencies

Since September, the Currency Wars have escalated. It isn't just because of the seminal monetary events of the Federal Reserve's QE III "unlimited" and the ECB's OMT "Uncapped". It is highly likely, more about the fact that China announced its eleventh agreement that effectively bypasses using the US dollar with China's strategic trading partners. The latest agreement with Russia places trading oil, in non-US dollars, into the spotlight. The infamous petrodollar has had its destructive profile raised.


The Petrodollar has long been the cornerstone that solidified the US dollar as the key currency reserve holding. The Petrodollar strategy is arguably more important that the Bretton Woods agreement which officially made the US dollar the world's reserve currency at the end of WW II. This is now being called into question. Minimally, it suggests a weakened requirement for holdings of the current levels of US dollars in sovereign reserve accounts.

For the sake of space I won't lay out all the details of this but instead refer you to two recent video releases I have produced and participated in on the subject.

  • Currency Wars: The Failing Petro$$ Strategy  - YouTube
  • Triffin's Paradox & the Rule of Law - YouTube

What is important to Traders is what it means to your trading strategy in the short to intermediate term. To Investors it has profound longer term consequences.

To determine short term effects, we first need to understand the relationship of the Driver$ involved. The three critical currency relationships near term are the US$, the € and the ¥. Then we need to understand how they will effect US Treasury yields.

First however it is important to understand the controlling mechanism of global fiat currencies.

THE $67 TRILLION SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM (The Fiat Currency Control Block)

The Global Economy is approximately $70 Trillion. According to a just released report by the Financial Stability Authority (FSA), charged with investigating it globally, the Global Shadow Banking System was $67T in 2011.



It is up a staggering $6T in 2011.

This means that unofficial, unregulated, offshore entities now effectively control the pricing of global fiat currencies. Through the $637 Trillion SWAP market (also unregulated and offshore trading currency, interest & credit default swaps) they in turn control global interest rates.

The major currency domiciles within the Shadow Banking Industry. It's called absolute control.



 ¥: The Early December Japanese Election is likely to result in dramatically increased BOJ Liquidity, Negative yields and the political process dictating to the Bank of Japan in attempt to devalue the Yen for competitive trade advantage as the Japanese trade balance worsens.

 $: A political resolution to the Fiscal Cliff that results in a Credit Downgrade of US Debt.

 €: Though the € will rise relative to the dollar and Yen it is more about the resumption of the Yen Carry Trade and a slowing of the "Flight to Safety" Trade dominating the EU for months.

EURO:YEN

Consider first the Euro : Yen Cross



The rising green arrow in the above graphic is more about a planned and managed attempt at weakening the Yen than strength in the Euro.

The YEN must be weakened as its strength is crippling Japan's export economy.

The Yen will soon start weakening SIGNIFICANTLY against the Euro



EURO: US$


EU-EURO SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS (charts below):

o The present strategy in the EU is a "Political Union" and to change the treaty accord to put EU "teeth" into countries having to take stronger actions to bring their debt within EU targets. There is no solution given on how the EU does this other than austerity, which almost assures economic weakness and possible collapse going forward. Expect increasing broad based social unrest.

o The hidden and real reason for this is to change the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) to allow it to become the "lender of last resort". This is an euphemism for 'allowed to print money'. The mandate of the ECB is different than the US Federal Reserve and the hidden agenda is to change this.

o As we predicted in previous reports, and is now showing signs of coming to fruition, we expect Spain / Portugal & Italy to soon launch the next and more serious round of the EU crisis. Keep your eye on France and other peripheral nations such as Cyprus, the Netherlands. The fact Poland has deferred Eurozone entry is very telling.

o The only solution for the EU is the ECB monetizing money for funding bailouts. Draghi began this process in September with OMT or SMT2 which is OPEN ended. Support in the German courts and by Merkel suggest the Euro should strengthen somewhat in the near term. It will be more about the YEN and US$ weakening than the Euro strengthening



YEN:US$



US DOLLAR

The final chart show what in fact occurred over the last 30 days and what we presently anticipate:



US TREASURY DEBT & FISCAL CLIFF

This chart shows what we presently anticipate . "THIS IS A MAJOR INFLECTION POINT.

Expect a correction and consolidation."

REMEMBER: Financial Repression is at work here and US Bond Yields and Interest Rates MUST be further reduced.

We presently expect the 10 Year US Treasury Bill to eventually break below 1% which supports the potential target shown above & below.



THIS IS A WELL MANAGED AND CONTROLLED REGRESSION CHANNEL

as the developed world tries to rebalance within global imbalances. 

CONCLUSIONS

The global economy is near stall speed as the already attempted stimulus and monetary policies have failed to deliver. The controllers of the fiat currency camp (US, EU, Japan and UK) must therefore further lower REAL yields and extend duration through central bank guarantees.

They will do this in attempt to buy further time until the 'magical' recovery happens.

Frankly, the politicos know of no other recourse despite it having already failed continuously.

NIRP

Japan has just completed its ninth Quantitative Easing and have concluded ZIRP now needs to be NIRP (negative Interest Rate Policy). It is highly probable that this will reignite the Yen Carry Trade and strengthen the US$. In turn this will hurt equities and compress PE ratios further.

Expect violent counter rallies as the right shoulder is put in, within a long term, 10 year Head and Shoulders pattern.

Traders need to carefully watch the US$, the € and the ¥. cross relationships and credit spreads associated with US Treasury Yield curve and High Yield (HY) "B" rated instruments.

Good luck, and good trading.

Download your FREE TRIAL copy of the latest TRIGGER$
Checkout the GordonTLong.com YouTube Channel for the latest Macro Analytics from expert Guests

Gordon T Long    
Publisher & Editor
general@GordonTLong.com     

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2012 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife