Stock Market First a Stair-step, Next a Stumble?Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Dec 14, 2012 - 03:46 AM GMT
The SPX is stair-stepping through its trendline support and closed at its 50-day support. The bounce fell short of a 38.2% retracement and appears to be over. In fact, the after-hours futures continued to fall beneath the 50-day moving average. There is a high risk of an overnight fall beneath the remaining supports to the Cycle Bottom at 1383.39 and 200-day moving average at 1387.00. Should that event take place, we could wake up Monday to a waterfall decline.
No guarantees. This is how the Orthodox Broadening Top plays out.
The VIX closed above its 50-day moving average at 16.41 today. It also made a small retracement that appears to be over. A breakout above the recent highs at 18.64 would wake up the analysts and put the VIX above its 200-day moving average at 17.54.
The Euro is high due to the fact that a lot of shorts loaded up this Summer. There seems to be a concerted effort to eliminate those short positions in order to keep the European banks (net long) intact. The hedge funds would walk away with huge profits once the Euro drops below 120.00, but the banks would be wiped out.
Gold resumed its decline toward its crash trigger at 1625.00. Not much more to be said.
USB lost all but mid-Cycle support at 147.42. The first target appears to be the Head & Shoulders goal near Cycle Bottom support at 139.83.
The long-term trendline, running from September 1981, is at 123.00. The crossing of that trendline will mark the end of era.
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