Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK Solar Eclipse - End Time Sign, Judgement Day, Doomsday! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold And Silver - When Will Precious Metals Rally? Not In 2015 - Michael_Noonan
4.Preparing for the Next Stocks Bear Market - Forecast 2015-2016 - Gary_Savage
5.Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent? - David Eifrig
6.Gold Price Slumps as US Dollar Soars, What's Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Dollar Forex Pairs and Gold Chartology - Rambus_Chartology
8.Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The ECB Should End QE Next Month - EconMatters
10.Silver Price Poised to Surge - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit - 29th Mar 15
Stock Market About Ready to Crash! - 29th Mar 15
Reflections in a Golden Eye - Gold Market Rejection, Repatriation and Redemption - 28th Mar 15
Stock Market Inflection Point - 28th Mar 15
Gold And Silver - What Moved Price? Bab el-Mandeb And Uranus Square Pluto. What?! - 28th Mar 15
Stock Market Investment Parachutes; Do You Have Yours? - 28th Mar 15
Peak Gold Misunderstanding, is Gold About to Run Out? - 28th Mar 15
Deflation Watch: Key U.S. Economic Measures Turn South - 27th Mar 15
The Hard-Earned Truth About Recreational Real Estate - 27th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Still in Important Territory - 27th Mar 15
Stocks Bear Market Conditions - Index Market Range Warning - 27th Mar 15
BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% - 27th Mar 15
Brazil Economy Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism - 27th Mar 15
Gold to Fuel Silver Price Upleg - 27th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Stocks Will Rise Again! - 27th Mar 15
Risk of ‘World War’ between NATO and Russia on Ukraine as Yemen Bombed - 27th Mar 15
FOMC Minutes Turned The Gold Tide - 27th Mar 15
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps - 27th Mar 15
Gold Effect On Mining & Shale Wasteland - 27th Mar 15
How Stock Investors Should Play the 2016 Presidential Race - 26th Mar 15
MidEast Energy Alert: Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Get Ugly Very Fast - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Downward Spiral of Dumbness - 26th Mar 15
The Monetary Approach Reigns Supreme - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Large Gap Down, Despite the Algos' Push Back - 26th Mar 15
Crude Oil Surges, Gold price Spikes as Middle East Tensions Escalate - 26th Mar 15
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Is Fabricated Optimism - 26th Mar 15
Why Yemen Is The Next Saudi-Iranian Battleground - 26th Mar 15
The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down - 26th Mar 15
Global Financial Markets Are More Distorted Than Ever Before - 26th Mar 15
One More Stock Market Rally and Then a Huge Drop Expected - 26th Mar 15
Danger Will Robinson - Stock Market Crash Warning - 25th Mar 15
Learn the Basics of Corrective Elliott Waves - 25th Mar 15
Why CNBC Is Hazardous to Your Financial Health! - 25th Mar 15
Will Your Retirement Accounts Survive The Coming Tax Code "Revolution"? - 25th Mar 15
US Dollar - Americas Phoenix - 25th Mar 15
California’s Epic Drought: Only One Year of Water Left! - 25th Mar 15
What’s Wrong With Silver? - 25th Mar 15
SPX Futures Appear Weak. WTIC and Gold May Be at Max Retracement - 25th Mar 15
We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” - 25th Mar 15
A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery - 25th Mar 15
Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing - 25th Mar 15
Stock Market NYSE Hi-Lo Index Aggressive Sell Signal - 24th Mar 15
Palladium Commodity Price Forecast - 24th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Gearing Up for a Fall - 24th Mar 15
Safety Deposit Boxes In UK Being Closed By ‏HSBC – Not Closing Gold Vaults - 24th Mar 15
Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster - 24th Mar 15
China's Fragile Evolution - 24th Mar 15
David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats - 24th Mar 15
City of London's Ownership of American Colonies - 24th Mar 15
Stock Market Reversal May Have Begun - 24th Mar 15
Casey Gathers Top Gold Experts to Share Secrets for Making Money in Any Market - 24th Mar 15
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market - 24th Mar 15
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... - 24th Mar 15
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video - 24th Mar 15
Is Stock Market Minor Top Taking Hold? - 23rd Mar 15
Greece and EU Running Out of Time as Bank Runs Intensify - 23rd Mar 15
Stock Market Slightly Negative Expectations Following Last Week's Rally - 23rd Mar 15
This Rising Interest Rates Play Could Make You a Quick 55% - 23rd Mar 15
Platinum Commodity Price False Break Low - 23rd Mar 15
The Real Reason The American Dream is Unraveling - 23rd Mar 15
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls - 23rd Mar 15
Silver Price Reliance During U.S. Dollar Rally - 23rd Mar 15
old Price Outlook Dramatic Improvement Following US Dollar Topping Action - 23rd Mar 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy Still on Life Support

Stock Market Fireworks Early 2013

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Dec 24, 2012 - 04:56 AM GMT

By: WavePatternTraders

Stock-Markets

3 Down 2 More to Go! - I have been following a number of markets since late September, and I have been looking for new highs and price to exceed those highs made on September 2012. Early this week 2 of those markets took out and surpassed the prior September highs, the NYSE and XLF making those new highs confirmed my original thoughts that the decline from the September high was a clear 3 wave decline, which I have maintained only to the cries of the bears telling me it is the start of some gigantic market crash.


Well the DAX made a new yearly high as did other European markets earlier in the month, now we have the XLF and the NYSE making new highs above the September 2012 high. So the bears that were counting those markets as topped in September have got that completely wrong, which does not surprise me at all considering they are not respecting what price is suggesting.

Why did they get it wrong? Well its simple, it was a 3 wave decline, NOT a 5 wave decline as some Elliotticians tried to count it.

Why is this important?

Well a 3 wave decline in an uptrend is a corrective pullback and should see new highs as we have seen this week on the NYSE and XLF, I have been a working a theme with many markets and patterns and it seems we are only pieces away from a full set. The DOW and the SPX have yet to exceed their respective September highs, so whilst the market is not showing signs of a strong reversal, I am going to continue to give the benefit to the bulls, to run the market higher and take out the buy stops that will be sitting at those highs. Not only would it complete some ideas I am working with, but it will also likely turn the majority of traders and the media bullish at precisely the wrong time.

Just the way I like it. Trader’s getting mega bullish at the highs, like they were at the highs in 2010, 2011 & 2012

NYSE

This market can stretch a bit higher, which would help my ideas of seeing the DOW and SPX see that new price high above the September 2012 high, which would complete their ideas. It’s only just touching the target zone, so a bit more inside would setup up nicely as there is also a strong area of resistance just above that should pose as significant resistance, around 8665-8800.

Non Elliotticians can see the basic bearish wedge shape and the lack of strength to make a new high with a new price highs suggests that the market is in a topping phase, and if my main wave count is correct as shown we are setting up for a large move lower soon, although I still ideally want to see the DOW and SPX exceed their respective September 2012 high first.

Target is a test of the March 2009 lows round 4000.

XLF

From the March 2009 lows you can clearly see a similar pattern to the NYSE and a 3 wave move, furthermore the last few months we appear to be making an ending diagonal for wave [C] of a larger B wave. (large bearish looking wedge)

With the new high made this week, that ticked this market as technically completed, although if the other main markets run a bit higher and I get to see the SPX around 1480SPX I suspect this could run a little bit higher towards the strong resistance area around the blue line at $17.17.

With the large RSI divergence showing, I still favor this as being inside an ending diagonal, so once the markets are ready and setup, I favor a strong reversal potentially sometime early in 2013.

It will need something serious on the upside to negate the patterns, and a serious new wave of buyers to enter the market. What I have seen so far is a trend that looks like its losing momentum and appears to be trying to make an important top.

Which all fits in with my ideas of a significant top setting up, based on the 3 wave moves from the March 2009 lows.

If you recall in my last article I wrote that we can watch the key financial stocks of the XLF such as JPM, BAC and GS for a timing of the XLF as well as the SPX, those stocks are important as the technician that is one step of those stocks will be closer to predicting a turn just as I did at the April 2012 highs.

It is my belief that the markets appear to be setting up for a large reversal early in 2013, and potentially a major top. Although a few markets are lacking that bit higher in price, but there are strong clues as well as pieces of the larger jigsaw puzzle appearing to come together.

SPX

I am still expecting this market to put in a move towards 1480SPX, although there is always the chance of a truncation as it would not be the first time I have tried to pinch every single last piece of a wave pattern, only to see it fall short right at the end, but with the market still not showing a strong impulsive move to the downside I am going to give the benefit to the upside and continue looking for that test of 1480-1500SPX.

We have some key areas below, should they get violated I may just have to be forced to switch bias and accept the market failed to put in the new high, as many other markets have technically completed their respective patterns we are just waiting on the DOW and the SPX to join the party.

Conclusion

With the way the markets are setting up, it looks like early 2013 is going to be an explosive start, with many US and Asian markets setting up and hitting our long standing targets; I think we are ready for some fireworks.

Are you interested in joining our party? Interested in what we have to offer? Take the 4 week free trial, this week alone we nailed setups on Gold ,NDX, SPX and AUDUSD that would have made your yearly membership 3 times over.

But don’t take my word for it; come check us out if you think we are not the real deal. With a 4 week free trial, what are you waiting for?

I will leave it there for now and want wish all my members as well as readers of my articles a merry Christmas and happy New Year and see you in for 2013 for some fireworks.

Until next time

Have a profitable week ahead.

Click here to become a member

You can also follow us on twitter

What do we offer?

Short and long term analysis on US and European markets, various major FX pairs, commodities from Gold and silver to markets like natural gas.

Daily analysis on where I think the market is going with key support and resistance areas, we move and adjust as the market adjusts.

A chat room where members can discuss ideas with me or other members.

Members get to know who is moving the markets in the S&P pits*

*I have permission to post comments from the audio I hear from the S&P pits.

If you looking for quality analysis from someone that actually looks at multiple charts and works hard at providing members information to stay on the right side of the trends and making $$$, why not give the site a trial.

If any of the readers want to see this article in a PDF format.

Please send an e-mail to Enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

Please put in the header PDF, or make it known that you want to be added to the mailing list for any future articles.

Or if you have any questions about becoming a member, please use the email address above.

If you like what you see, or want to see more of my work, then please sign up for the 4 week trial.

This article is just a small portion of the markets I follow.

I cover many markets, from FX to US equities, right the way through to commodities.

If I have the data I am more than willing to offer requests to members.

Currently new members can sign up for a 4 week free trial to test drive the site, and see if my work can help in your trading and if it meets your requirements.

If you don't like what you see, then drop me an email within the 1st 4 weeks from when you join, and ask for a no questions refund.

You simply have nothing to lose.

By Jason Soni AKA Nouf

© 2012 Copyright Jason Soni AKA Nouf - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

WavePatternTraders Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014