Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning... - Clive_Maund
4.Stock Market Crash Apocalypse or Bull Market Severe Correction? - Nadeem_Walayat
5.TShipping Said to Have Ceased… Is the Worldwide Economy Grinding to a Halt? - Jeff_Berwick
6.Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Summers: Global Economy Can't Withstand Four 2016 Fed Hikes - Bloomberg
8.Gold And Silver: New World Order: Public Be Damned, Preferably Dead - Michael_Noonan
9.Rigged U.S. Ttreasury Bond Market Double Barreled Hidden Q.E. To Infinity - Jim_Willie_CB
10.Major Stocks Bear Market Awakening - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
Is This the Debt Bubbles Last Rattle? - 12th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Upside Targets - 12th Feb 16
Stock Market Observations - 12th Feb 16
Will Capital Controls Return? - 12th Feb 16
Gold, Gold Stocks, and the End Game - 12th Feb 16
Canadian Dollar Now Even Less of a Haven from US Dollar Collapse Than Before - 12th Feb 16
The Stock Market Dow Elevator; 18, 17, 16.... - 12th Feb 16
Will Harry Dent Eat Crow on His $700 Gold Price Prediction? - 12th Feb 16
Where to Hide Your Money From Reckless Governments - 12th Feb 16
The War on Cash is About to Go into Hyperdrive - 11th Feb 16
More Bankruptcy For Your Retirement Portfolio - 11th Feb 16
2016 - Gold & Silver Rising: A Gold And Silver Bottom May Be In - 11th Feb 16
Gain Trading Confidence by Improving Your Elliott Wave Analysis Skills - Video - 11th Feb 16
With A Gloomy Start To 2016, A Bust Seems Just Around The Corner - 11th Feb 16
UK Interest Rates, Economy Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - Video - 10th Feb 16
World Markets Are in Sync - 10th Feb 16
If You Miss Buying Gold – You Will Regret, it Later - 10th Feb 16
The Fed Doesn't have a Clue! - 10th Feb 16
How Far Can Gold Price Go? - 10th Feb 16
It's Stock Market Panic Time! - 9th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Picks for Patient Pickers - 9th Feb 16
Oil Price Collapse U.S. Recession Odds 2016 - 9th Feb 16
Preparing for Crisis - It's About Risk Mitigation and Capital Preservation - 9th Feb 16
Top Silver Mining CEO: Don't Laugh, We Could See Silver $100+ - 8th Feb 16
Gold, Investment Leadership Changes Permanent? - 8th Feb 16
Stock Market Panic Decline Begins... - 8th Feb 16
How to Save Money By Growing Your Own Homegrown Tomatoes Indoors From Seeds - 8th Feb 16
US Economy Slides One Step Further Towards A Recession - 8th Feb 16
Gold Bear Market Bottom : Mr. Bear has left the PM Sector for Greener Pastures - 8th Feb 16
Stock Market At Important Support - 8th Feb 16
David Cameron Humiliated in Poland Over Refusal to Stop Taking UK Benefits, BrExit or Super State? - 8th Feb 16
Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here - 7th Feb 16
Stock Market S&P, NAS Best, Most Reliable Answers Come From The Market And You - 7th Feb 16
Stocks Bear Market Continues - 7th Feb 16
Silver COT Paving Way for Sustained Upside Breakout Sharp Rally - 7th Feb 16
US Dollar Double Top, Gold Prospects Brightening Rapidly - 7th Feb 16
Gold And Silver - Is A Bottom In? Nothing Confirmed - 7th Feb 16
Gold Stocks Something has Changed - 6th Feb 16
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - 6th Feb 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Global Financial Crisis 2016

Don't Expect the News to Tell You Where EUR/USD Is Going Next

Currencies / Forex Trading Dec 28, 2012 - 11:46 AM GMT

By: EWI

Currencies

Retrospective explanations of market moves don't keep you ahead of the trend
On December 27, EUR/USD shot up as high as $1.3283. Forex news headlines were quick to comment:

"Dec 27 - The euro slightly extended gains against the dollar after strong U.S. new home sales data last month further lifted the market's appetite for riskier currencies."


But after EUR/USD hit that high, it promptly reversed and fell back down to the $1.3200 level, where it had been stuck all week.

You may ask: What happened to that "appetite for riskier currencies"?

Good question, and here's the answer: That explanation came after the EUR/USD rally, not before.

See, it's easy to fit the news to market action after the fact: Just grab the news story that best "explains" the move. But retrospective explanations don't keep you ahead of the trend. To win in forex, you need forward-looking analysis, and you need it before the market moves.

On December 26, the editor EWI's forex-focused Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, posted this comment on his Twitter feed:

EWI Forex Insider: @FX_ElliottWave
Now that we got the EUR rise we expected, the double zigzag rise from 1.3158 to 1.3256 leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to a decline.

Then, on the morning of December 27, Jim updated his Currency Specialty Service subscribers via this intraday forecast (excerpt):

EURUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Dec 27
2012 10:01AM ET / Dec 27 2012 3:01PM GMT
Last Price: 1.3269

The overlapping rise and possible double top near 1.3309 could lead to a larger correction. A flat or triangle would lead to weakness...

And here's the decline EUR/USD saw shortly after:

Note that neither of these two forecasts mentioned the news. And for good reason: The December 27 euro-bullish news would have had you buying EUR/USD all the way into the top.

Instead of the news, we at EWI look at objective Elliott wave chart patterns. That, and not the news, is what helps us to forecast the markets before they move.

We don't always succeed. However, as you can tell from this example, our Currency Specialty Service delivers true forward-looking analysis. Get our forecast for the U.S. dollar plus 5 hidden market opportunities for 2013 in a brand-new FREE report >>

Free Report: 5 Hidden Market Opportunities for 2013

In this special 21-minute video report, EWI Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens looks past the obvious -- the "fiscal cliff," the Fed, etc. -- to give you a U.S. dollar forecast for 2013 that would astonish the mainstream experts. Jim then walks you through 5 precise Elliott wave "roadmaps" for 5 key FX market opportunities in the year ahead.

BONUS: You also get Jim's new 5-minute video update featuring 2 major currency pairs.

All you need to access this video report is a FREE Club EWI profile.

Complete your free Club EWI profile now and get instant access to these special videos >>

Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave community with more than 325,000 members. Membership is 100% free and includes free reports, tutorials, videos, special events, promotional offers and access to the valuable EWI Q&A Message Board.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Don't Expect the News to Tell You Where EUR/USD Is Going Next. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History