Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Gallery of Crowd Behavior: Goodbye Stock Market All Time Highs - Doug_Wakefieldth
2.Tesco Meltdown Debt Default Risk Could Trigger a Financial Crisis in Early 2015 - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Trend Every Nation on Earth Is Pouring Money Into - Keith Fitz-Gerald
4.Do Tumbling Buybacks Signal Another Stock Market Crash? - 26Mike_Whitney
5.Could Tesco Go Bust? How to Save Tesco from Debt Bankruptcy Risk - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold And Silver Price - Respect The Trend But Prepare For A Reversal - Michael_Noonan
7.U.S. Economy Faltering Momentum, Debt and Asset Bubbles - Lacy Hunt
8.Bullish Silver Stealth Buying - Zeal_LLC
9.Euro, USD, Gold and Stocks According to Chartology - Rambus_Chartology
10.Evidence of Another Even More Sweeping U.S. Housing Market Bust Already Starting to Appear - EWI
Last 5 days
Stocks Bear Market Crash Towards New All Time Highs as QE3 End Awaits QE4 Start - 31st Oct 14
US Mortgages, Risky Bisiness "Easy Money" - 30th Oct 14
Gold, Silver and Currency Wars - 30th Oct 14
How to Recognize a Stock Market “Bear Raid” on Wall Street - 30th Oct 14
U.S. Midterm Elections: Would a Republican Win Be Bullish for the Stock Market? - 30th Oct 14
Stock Market S&P Index MAP Wave Analysis Forecast - 30th Oct 14
Gold Price Declines Once Again As Expected - 30th Oct 14
Depression and the Economy of a Country - 30th Oct 14
Fed Ends QE? Greenspan Says Gold “Measurably” “Higher” In 5 Years - 30th Oct 14
Apocalypse Now Or Nirvana Next Week? - 30th Oct 14
Understanding Gold's Massive Impact on Fed Maneuvering - 30th Oct 14
Europe: Building a Banking Union - 30th Oct 14
The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped From America's Grasp - 30th Oct 14
Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part VIII) - 29th Oct 14
Flock of Black Swans Points to Imminent Stock Market Crash - 29th Oct 14
Bank of America's Mortgage Headaches - 29th Oct 14
Risk Management - Why I Run “Ultimate Trailing Stops” on All My Investments - 29th Oct 14
As the Eurozone Economy Stalls, China Cuts the Red Tape - 29th Oct 14
Stock Market Bubble Goes Pop - 29th Oct 14
Gold's Obituary - 29th Oct 14
A Medical Breakthrough Creating Stock Profits - 29th Oct 14
Greenspan: Gold Price Will Rise - 29th Oct 14
The Most Important Stock Market Chart on the Planet - 29th Oct 14
Mysterious Death od CEO Who Went Against the Petrodollar - 29th Oct 14
Hillary Clinton Could Be One of the Best U.S. Presidents Ever - 29th Oct 14
The Worst Advice Wall Street Ever Gave - 29th Oct 14
Bitcoin Price Narrow Range, Might Not Be for Long - 29th Oct 14
UKIP South Yorkshire PCC Election Win is Just Not Going to Happen - 29th Oct 14
Evidence of New U.S. Housing Market Real Estate Bust Starting to Appear - 28th Oct 14
Principle, Rigor and Execution Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy - 28th Oct 14
This Little Piggy Bent The Market - 28th Oct 14
Global Housing Markets - Don’t Buy A Home, You’ll Get Burned! - 28th Oct 14
U.S. Economic Snapshot - Strong Dollar Eating into corporate Profits - 28th Oct 14
Oliver Gross Says Peak Gold Is Here to Stay - 28th Oct 14
The Hedge Fund Rich List Infographic - 28th Oct 14
Does Gold Price Always Respond to Real Interest Rates? - 28th Oct 14
When Will Central Bank Morons Ever Learn? asks Albert Edwards at Societe General - 28th Oct 14
Functional Economics - Getting Your House in Order - 28th Oct 14
Humanity Accelerating to What Exactly? - 27th Oct 14
A Scary Story for Emerging Markets - 27th Oct 14
Could Tesco Go Bust? How to Save Tesco from Debt Bankruptcy Risk - 27th Oct 14
Europe Redefines Bank Stress Tests - 27th Oct 14
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway - 27th Oct 14
Why Do Banks Want Our Deposits? Hint: It’s Not to Make Loans - 26th Oct 14
Obamacare Is Not a Revolution, It Is Mere Evolution - 26th Oct 14
Do Tumbling Buybacks Signal Another Stock Market Crash? - 26th Oct 14
Has the FTSE Stock Market Index Put in a Major Top? - 26th Oct 14
Christmas In October – Desperate Measures - 26th Oct 14
Stock Market Primary IV Continues - 26th Oct 14
Gold And Silver Price - Respect The Trend But Prepare For A Reversal - 25th Oct 14
Ebola Has Nothing To Do With The Stock Market - 25th Oct 14
The Gallery of Crowd Behavior: Goodbye Stock Market All Time Highs - 25th Oct 14
Japanese Style Deflation Coming? Where? Fed Falling Behind the Curve? Which Way? - 25th Oct 14
Gold Price Rebounds but Gold Miners Struggle - 25th Oct 14
Stock Market Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally - 25th Oct 14
Get Ready for “Stupid Cheap” Stock Prices - 25th Oct 14
The Trend Every Nation on Earth Is Pouring Money Into - 25th Oct 14 - Keith Fitz-Gerald
Bitcoin Price Decline Stopped, Possibly Temporarily - 25th Oct 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stocks Epic Bear Market

Don't Expect the News to Tell You Where EUR/USD Is Going Next

Currencies / Forex Trading Dec 28, 2012 - 11:46 AM GMT

By: EWI

Currencies

Retrospective explanations of market moves don't keep you ahead of the trend
On December 27, EUR/USD shot up as high as $1.3283. Forex news headlines were quick to comment:

"Dec 27 - The euro slightly extended gains against the dollar after strong U.S. new home sales data last month further lifted the market's appetite for riskier currencies."


But after EUR/USD hit that high, it promptly reversed and fell back down to the $1.3200 level, where it had been stuck all week.

You may ask: What happened to that "appetite for riskier currencies"?

Good question, and here's the answer: That explanation came after the EUR/USD rally, not before.

See, it's easy to fit the news to market action after the fact: Just grab the news story that best "explains" the move. But retrospective explanations don't keep you ahead of the trend. To win in forex, you need forward-looking analysis, and you need it before the market moves.

On December 26, the editor EWI's forex-focused Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, posted this comment on his Twitter feed:

EWI Forex Insider: @FX_ElliottWave
Now that we got the EUR rise we expected, the double zigzag rise from 1.3158 to 1.3256 leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to a decline.

Then, on the morning of December 27, Jim updated his Currency Specialty Service subscribers via this intraday forecast (excerpt):

EURUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Dec 27
2012 10:01AM ET / Dec 27 2012 3:01PM GMT
Last Price: 1.3269

The overlapping rise and possible double top near 1.3309 could lead to a larger correction. A flat or triangle would lead to weakness...

And here's the decline EUR/USD saw shortly after:

Note that neither of these two forecasts mentioned the news. And for good reason: The December 27 euro-bullish news would have had you buying EUR/USD all the way into the top.

Instead of the news, we at EWI look at objective Elliott wave chart patterns. That, and not the news, is what helps us to forecast the markets before they move.

We don't always succeed. However, as you can tell from this example, our Currency Specialty Service delivers true forward-looking analysis. Get our forecast for the U.S. dollar plus 5 hidden market opportunities for 2013 in a brand-new FREE report >>

Free Report: 5 Hidden Market Opportunities for 2013

In this special 21-minute video report, EWI Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens looks past the obvious -- the "fiscal cliff," the Fed, etc. -- to give you a U.S. dollar forecast for 2013 that would astonish the mainstream experts. Jim then walks you through 5 precise Elliott wave "roadmaps" for 5 key FX market opportunities in the year ahead.

BONUS: You also get Jim's new 5-minute video update featuring 2 major currency pairs.

All you need to access this video report is a FREE Club EWI profile.

Complete your free Club EWI profile now and get instant access to these special videos >>

Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave community with more than 325,000 members. Membership is 100% free and includes free reports, tutorials, videos, special events, promotional offers and access to the valuable EWI Q&A Message Board.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Don't Expect the News to Tell You Where EUR/USD Is Going Next. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014