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Catching a Falling Financial Knife

The U.S. Gasoline Market Twin Peaks of 2012

Commodities / Gas - Petrol Jan 02, 2013 - 02:25 AM GMT

By: PhilStockWorld

Commodities

Courtesy of Doug Short.Here is my weekly gasoline chart update from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Gasoline prices at the pump rose last week. Rounded to the penny, the average for Regular and Premium were up four cents.

According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest gasoline price, averaging $3.95. New York is second at $3.72. At the other end of the price range, four states have average prices under $3.00: Colorado is the cheapest at $2.96; the other three are Wyoming, Oklahoma and Utah.


How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.


The year 2012 was certainly a roller coaster ride for gasoline. The adjacent thumbnail shows the range for Regular and Premium. From the last week of 2011 we see near twin price peaks. Regular and Premium both peaked in early April, up 21.0% and 19.2% respectively. They hit interim lows in early July, only a few cents above the 2011 year end prices. They hit their second (slightly lower) high in mid-September and then fell to December 2012 lows two weeks ago, essentially at the anniversary of their December 2011 lows.

The next chart is a weekly chart overlay of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). WTIC is listed at 91.74, up 3.00 from last Monday. GASO hit its intraday high at 3.43 on April 3rd. It closed today at 2.76, up 0.04 from last Monday.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.


The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).


Here

- Phil

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www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2012 Copyright  PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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Catching a Falling Financial Knife