Whilst 2012 closed with a whimper, 2013 starts with a BANG! as the fiscal cliff collapse crash mantra goes the same way as the Mayan doom prophecies barely of a fortnight earlier. Though don't worry there will be plenty more cliff-hangers for the always imminent crash merchants to hang onto during 2013 that I will seek to debunk during 2013, unless that is the actual probability of such events is high.
But before looking ahead towards the prospects for the likes of the stocks stealth bull market for 2013 and other markets such as housing and commodities, this is a look back at a selection of the 10 most popular articles of 2012.
Top 10 Most Popular Articles of 2012
Oct 27, 2012 - Reads:59,496 By: Nadeem_Walayat
The final countdown to the U.S. presidential election has now begun with expectations that there is little that each candidate can now effect on the electorate during the remaining 10 days. Most opinion polls currently put Romney slightly ahead of Obama i.e. ABC 50/47, BBC Poll of Polls 49/47, Gallop 48/48. However the high margin of error of as much as +/ -5%, and typically +/ -3% compounded by the electoral college system makes all of these opinion polls unreliable in trying to determine the US election outcome, therefore this analysis is focused on key events that impact on determining a probable forecast for the US presidential election 2012.
The mainstream press were persistently painting a picture of the race between Mick Romney and Barack Obama being tight, however in terms of probabilities there was never really any doubt for several months that Barack Obama was by far the clear favourite.
May 12, 2012 - Reads:52,801 - By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues on from my last article in light of the recent French and Greek elections where voters rejected economic austerity in favour of money printing Inflation stealth debt default as politically an smoke and mirrors Inflationary depression is being seen as far more palatable for populations than a deflationary depression slow motion economic collapse. However to be able to print money inline with the true state of the respective competitiveness of euro-zone economies, then these countries governments have no choice but to exit the euro-zone, or be forced out as they one by one fail to follow through on agreed austerity measures.
I am surprised that Greece has managed to hang in their and by virtue of which so has Spain because fundamentally things are now even worse for the Euro-zone, what this suggests to me is rather than a few countries going down, the whole euro-zone is hell bent on self-destruction, which is something that I will seek to cover in-depth during 2013.
May 24, 2012 - Reads:44,106 - By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Biblical story is told of a tower built ever higher in order to achieve contact with the heavens, lest they be scattered upon the earth. They were scattered when the tower fell. Fast forward to today, where the earth has a multitude of tribes, languages, and several major alphabets. When the Lehman Brothers failure occurred, and the Fannie Mae and AIG activities were to be concealed under court orders, the land turned barren, and a financial plague befell the Western nations led by the United States. They were after all, the keepers of the ark (printing press for USDollars). But a plague of debt locusts was cast upon the US nation, with annual $1.5 trillion deficits. The Americans in their unending arrogance, chose to speak from the tower top and to proclaim 0% forever, suspending gravity. They have attempted to force free money to finance their USGovt debts, to preserve power, to ensure privilege, but in doing so they defy nature in testing gravity itself.
The consequences of central banks buying their own government bonds has yet to unravel for most non Euro-zone countries, the UK, US and not forgetting Japan are printing ever larger debt mountains the consequences of which IS inflation.
Jun 21, 2012 - Reads:42,624 - By: Rudy_Avizius
On June 12, a leaked copy of the investment chapter for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was made public. This copy was analyzed by Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch and has been verified as authentic. This agreement has been negotiated IN SECRET for 2-1/2 years and no information has ever been released until this leak. So why have the details of this negotiation been so secret? This agreement has been framed as a “free trade” agreement and yet out of 26 chapters only two have anything to do with trade. The other 24 chapters grant new corporate privileges and rights, while limiting governments and protective regulations.
Feb 19, 2012 - Reads:41,246 - By: Jason_Hamlin
Were you cursing at your computer screen when silver nearly tripled during the short 9 months from September 2010 to May 2011? Silver at $20 seemed like an insurmountable threshold for quite some time. This caused many silver investors to give up just prior to the ascent, completely missing the ride towards $50. I believe silver is about to offer a similar ride. While it is unlikely to match the 180% advance mentioned above, look for silver to make new highs in the coming months, with the potential to double to $65 by year end.
Silver started the year at $29 and ended at about $30, so...., 2013?
Jan 18, 2012 - Reads: 40,043 - By: Sam_Chee_Kong
PAGE which stands for Pan Asian Gold Exchange was set up in 2011 and has already begun operations with local Chinese buying and selling of gold through the internet. PAGE is located in Kunming, the capital city of Yunnan Province located in South Western China and is also the major gateway to South East Asia.
This gold exchange will enable ordinary Chinese buy/sell gold using a Renminbi account with a bank or broker. Currently there are two banks that are authorized to process the transactions or settlements and they are the Agriculture Bank of China and The Fudian Bank of Yunnan. The 10 ounce mini contracts will be known as T+D and the price is RMB 30,000 for 1 lot and it is fully backed by the Chinese government.
Jul 20, 2012 - Reads:37,526 - By: Nadeem_Walayat
The City of London is Imploding as a consequence of ever escalating shockwave's mostly emanating from across the Atlantic as the United States goes into overdrive in attempts to wipe-out competition from London in terms of profiting from global financial market transactions.
First we saw the US dig out and focus on 4 year old LIBOR manipulation stories centred around the cesspit that goes by the name of Barclays Bank that looks set to devastate all of UK's biggest banks, with the UK tax payer ultimately footing the bailout bill. I have covered this story at length that illustrate that everyone knew about LIBOR manipulation but now pretend that they only found out relatively recently - more here - RBS Chaos and Barclays Libor Cesspit Prompts Slow Motion Run on British Banks
Was a reiteration of the warning to ignore the deflation fools as UK Inflation was expected to take off again (which it did) as a consequence of the policy of QQE, which basically amounts to the effective cancellation of UK government debt as the Bank of England returns interest payments on the Government bonds it increasingly holds.
Dec 12, 2012 - Reads 36,962 - By Nadeem_Walayat
The world will end on 21st December! Or so the Mayan calendar supposedly predicts, though is vague on what the actual mechanism for our extinction will be, with the hot money betting on being hit by a rogue planet called Nibiru, whilst many academics argue that the Mayan calendar actually does not predict that the end of world but the end of one cycle and the beginning of another. However these theories have not filtered through to the masses many thousands of miles away in places such as China where some are going so far as building arks to ride out the end of the world, in Russia selling doomsday kits, in France closing access to mountain passes to avoid panic amongst people fleeing to the mountains.
Nobody really took the Mayan Prophecies seriously, after all they never saw their own demise a thousand years earlier. Still it did give a window into the construct of religions as a means of control that appears to be genetic and a trend which humanity is still marching towards i.e. the all seeing and all knowing all powerful state seeking to control every action of people.
Feb 21, 2012 - Reads:36,904 - By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market last closed at another new bull market high at Dow 12,950, and within easy imminent touching distance of breaking above 13,000, whilst the debt crisis news out of Europe and elsewhere keeps worsening despite desperate attempts by European politicians to paper over the cracks as Greece marches inexorably towards the Euro-zone exit as each month the amount of debt write off demanded continues to climb from originally 20% to 53.5% (nominal, actual is probably 70%) today towards an eventual 90% default because the focus so far has been wholly on privately funded debt that has yet to touch on the additional Euro 200 billion or so that the euro-fools have so far thrown into the Greek debt black hole during the past 2 years to buy time for their own bankrupt banks.
My expectations remained for a trading range for the whole of 2012, as I expected the maturing bull market to unwind accumulated speculative interest during the preceding 3 year bull run off of the March 2009 lows.
Jan 05, 2012 - Reads:30,251 - By: Casey_Research
(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator) : L: Doug, a lot of readers have been asking for guidance on how to know when it's time to exit center stage and hunker down in some safe place. Few people want to hide from the world in a cabin in the woods while life goes on in the mainstream, but nobody wants to get caught once the gates clang shut on the police state the US is becoming. How do you know when it's time to go?
Illustrates the fears at the back of many peoples minds.
The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend
The exponential inflation mega-trend remains as the underlying driver of all market and economic trends (as measured in fiat currencies) that is the consequence of all governments perpetual debt and money printing as the party of government always seeks to to buy votes to stay in power that the ever expanding levers of government aim to fulfill (public sector / central banks).
A reminder of the UK and US Exponential inflation mega-trends -
And official CPI Inflaiton is subject to government and central bank fraud as they seek to under report real inflation rates, furthered by delusional deflationists who focus on even more subverted inflation indices that they label as 'core' inflation that tends to exclude major costs such as food and fuel despite the fact that most families spend over 50% of their earnings on such expenditures, all so as to fit within their delusional academic non existant deflationary economic world views.
The bottom line remains which is to search out assets / commodities that have under-performed against the inflation mega-trend which will increasingly become prime for their own multi-year leveraged bull runs. An example of such markets as I have been suggesting for much of 2012 are the US and to a lesser extent the UK housing markets that readers of my articles have been given a near years head start upon and that I will seek to focus upon in-depth this month.
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Wishing you all a happy and prosperous new year.
Copyright © 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive
© 2005-2013 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.