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Stock Market S&P 1470...1470....1470....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Jan 17, 2013 - 12:35 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


A number drilled in to our skulls, which gets tested every day, it seems, but never breaks through strongly. That's not bad, however. Think about the headaches facing the market this morning. The World Bank saying growth will slow globally in 2013. Exactly what a market normally doesn't need, if it intends to break out over key resistance. That news along with a few other smaller items hit the futures to the tune of 7 on the S&P 500. We did open lower, but, once again, the bulls came in and wouldn't allow for the S&P 500 to fall too far away from the magical level of 1470. We seem to get above it by a point or two but have yet to forcefully burst out.

Earnings were good from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and, although less so from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), not bad. That didn't hurt the bullish cause. It helped the futures from sinking too far down. The market, at times, will have its head down and accomplish what it intended to do for some time, and it won't allow anything to get in its way. That seems to be in play here. When all was said and done, it was a decent day for the bulls as they held the averages stable in the midst of some very, negative economic news this morning.

I have been of the belief that there is one more move left before we top out for some weeks to months. Probably months. One more move into the low 1500's. The chart patterns are set up to do so. However, once we get there, if we get there, RSI's on the daily index charts will be at 70, while the bull-bear spread, already at 31% more bulls, will be approaching the magical 35% level. This combination of factors will end the uptrend for some time. Not permanently, but certainly for some time.

I would expect the bull to resume after some time to unwind if the debt ceiling is properly resolved, etc. If not, no more bull, but in time, I think, it'll get resolved, just not on time initially. The market will get tougher and tougher as we move into February. Probably before that a bit, if we get this one last move higher. It means you can play long, but don't overdo it.

The financial stocks seem to be reporting some very good earnings thus far. Some misses, but overall, not bad at all. JPM was down early today on missed revenues, but that weakness was bought up quickly, allowing it to close in the green. The point is, not until they start hitting stocks hard that miss revenues is the market in any real trouble.
When a market starts to sell what it once bought up, you know the end is upon you with regards to a bullish run. That's still not happening. Good news is still being treated as good news, and not so good news is still not being slaughtered.

This tells me that even though the market only has one move left in it short-term, the future is still bright. As long as earnings are in line, or improving, it's going to be very hard for the bears to gain any real control of things on a sustainable basis.

It tells you that getting bearish right now isn't the best idea. That said, there will be opportunities short-term for the bears coming up. But I don't believe long-term as of yet.


Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2013

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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