Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Lindsay Stocks Bull Market Top Forecast 2013

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Jan 29, 2013 - 11:54 AM GMT

By: Ed_Carlson

Stock-Markets

When forecasting a market high with the methods of George Lindsay, the first step is always the 15-year interval. A period of time which should contain the high we seek is identified by counting from an important low to a time period 15 years to 15 years and 11 months later. Counting from the low of October 1997 identifies such a time period between October 2012 and September 2013.


After the bull market high in October 2007 the Dow declined for 13 months, until November 2008 when it marked a temporary low. The Principle of Continuity directs us to count the next advance from this “secondary low” rather than the ultimate low in March 2009 as 13-14 months is the time span of a long basic decline. A complete listing of Lindsay’s standard time spans can be found at Seattle Technical Advisors.com. We always begin counting the next basic advance from where the previous basic decline ended.

Counting from a descending middle section in January 2005 to the bull market high in October 2007 is 1002 days. The July 2, 2010 low follows the 2007 high 995 days later making this the bottom of a basic cycle. We would expect to count a basic advance from this low which means the advance from the November 2008 low must have ended at the April 2010 high.

The advance between the November 2008 low and the April 2010 high was 498 days. 498 days fits into the time span of a subnormal basic advance. The Principle of Alternation guides us to expect the next advance (off the July 2010 low) to be either long or extended.

A long basic advance (742 – 830 days) targets the time period between July 13 and October 9, 2012 for an end to the bull market. An extended basic advance (929 – 968 days) targets the time period between January 16 and February 24 for the high. Both fit into the time span of the 15-year interval.

Lindsay’s best-known model, Three Peaks and Domed House, plays a role in the forecast. The descending base in September told us to expect a long domed house and that taking the count from the base, as is commonly done, would have come up short of the market top. In such a case we must count from an inflection point in the First Floor Roof (the five-wave reversal). Counting from the top of the first reversal on February 28, 2012 gave us an almost perfect count of 220 days to the October top. As that date synched well with a long basic advance of 826 days from the July 2010 low I originally thought that date was the high of the bull market. But the possibility that the bull market could extend until the time period of an extended basic advance (929-968 days) was always with us.

After the October high, a descending middle section pointed to the low of November 16, 2012. Point E of a descending middle section on August 18, 2010 counts 412 days to the low of October 4, 2011. The November 2012 low lay 409 days later.  While it was safe to say this would be a “tradable” low, the question of whether to expect a new high in the Dow was still unanswered.

A middle section from early 2005 has two possible measuring points; point C on 4/14/05 counts 1,422 days to the major low on 3/6/09. Last Friday, 1/25/13 is 1,421 days after the 2009 low. Another possible point C on 3/16/05 counts 1,451 days to the March 2009 low. Counting an equidistance forward targets a possible high on 2/24/13. Both counts fit the period identified by an extended basic advance and the 15-year interval. 

Ed Carlson, C.M.T.

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing, is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson writes a weekly column for TraderPlanet.com, and manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2013 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules