Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18
More on that Gold and Silver Ratio 'Deviant Conundrum' - 13th Jun 18
Silver Shares? Nobody Cares - 13th Jun 18
What Happens to Stocks, Forex, Commodities, and Bonds When the Fed Hikes Rates - 13th Jun 18
Gold and Silver Price Setting Up for A Sleeper Breakout - 13th Jun 18
Tesla Stock Analysis - 12th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Russell Goes up 6 Weeks in a Row - 12th Jun 18
Gold vs. Stocks: Ratios Do Not Imply Correlation - 12th Jun 18
Silver’s Not-so-subtle Outperformance - 12th Jun 18
Why You Should Brace Yourself for Big Financial Changes - 11th Jun 18
Inflation to Skyrocket When Fed Reverts to New QE & Interest Rate Cuts - 11th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Consolidation? - 11th Jun 18
Study: What Happens Next to Stocks When the Put/Call Ratio is Very Low - 11th Jun 18
G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - 11th Jun 18
SPX Unshackled - 11th Jun 18
When Trump Met Fibonacci And Won - 11th Jun 18
FREE Theme Park Entry with Cadbury's Choc's! Legoland, Alton Towers, Chessington.... - 11th Jun 18
Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - 10th Jun 18
End of the World Stock Market Chart! - 10th Jun 18
All US Homes Are Overvalued - 10th Jun 18
Thorpe Theme Park London Car Park Exit Nightmare - Drivers Beware! - 10th Jun 18
Gold Price Summer Doldrums - 9th Jun 18
How to Prepare for Economic Uncertainty with Gold and Silver - 9th Jun 18
5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse - 9th Jun 18
Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - 9th Jun 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport ECO Mode Real World Driving MPG Fuel Economy - 9th Jun 18
Crude Oil Bullish Weekly Reversal vs. Bearish Monthly Reversal - 8th Jun 18
Fed’s Interest Rate Hike is Short term Bearish for Stocks - 8th Jun 18
The Deviant Conundrum Called Silver - 8th Jun 18
Pleasure Island Theme Park Cleethorpes, Last Day Trip Before it Closed Down - 8th Jun 18
America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - 8th Jun 18
Debt Consolidation Advice: When and Why to Consolidate - 8th Jun 18
Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - 8th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

State of The Union - Where is U.S. Unemployment Headed?

Politics / Unemployment Feb 12, 2013 - 07:09 PM GMT

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Politics

This evening Eastern Time U.S. President Obama is scheduled to give his annual 'State of the Union' address. Favoured topics are said to be U.S. unemployment and jobs creation, and gun control. I expect Mr. Obama also to address the issue of defense spending, where he recently has been reported as saying 'Deep cuts' threat to security, Obama says in reference to pending defense budget cuts.


With respect to unemployment, i will be listening carefully tonight to see if, and if he does 'how', Mr. Obama addresses:

specific government programs aimed at creating meaningful, lasting manufacturing and service jobs - with emphasis on manufacturing - or speaks in general terms about job creation. Simply put, the less specific and more general he is when he speaks about job creation tonight, the more 'smoke' will be in the room. As the old saying goes 'where there is smoke there is fire'. Generalities will not help Main Street Americans searching for jobs;

whether he and his government believe a strong manufacturing base is essential to U.S. near and long-term economic growth, and hence meaningful economic recovery;

the issue of whether his government does or does not believe the U.S. suffers from 'structural unemployment'. Structural unemployment in simple terms means that either worker skills and required job skills are mis-matched, or workers are not in geographic proximity to available jobs. I believe structural unemployment does exist in the U.S. If Mr. Obama discusses it tonight, he may claim it either doesn't exist, or is not an important U.S. employment impediment;

what U.S. defense spending cuts are going to mean to American manufacturing jobs. This is an issue I have not seen addressed very often, but I think it could be an issue of significant importance - not only from the perspective of America's military strength going forward, but may prove to be negative to near term American employment. Cuts in U.S. defense spending may also negatively influence employment in countries whose manufacturers sub-contract to the U.S. defense sector;

employing unemployed skilled and semi-skilled workers in government sponsored infrastructure projects and, if he does speak to that, whether he specifically addresses where the money is going to come from for such a program;

possible repatriation of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. pursuant to enhanced protectionist trading policies or special taxes on imported manufactured goods - the latter being a different way of getting at the same thing. If he does speak to that, I will be curious to see if he speaks to the likely inflationary effect of such a program on Main Street America;

technology and automation advances, and how he and his government see those things play out going forward, where technology and automation advances generally increase productivity outputs - but at the expense of manufacturing job losses; and,

what I think to be the 'survival of the fittest' nature of American capitalism at its best (or worst, depending on one's point of view). Recently by a libertarian friend of mine who resides in North Carolina told me (paraphrased): "America is driven by opportunity, and at a base level it is every man for himself". I seriously doubt my friend and Mr. Obama would see 'eye to eye' on that, and I will be interested to see if Mr. Obama addresses what I refer to as the 'democratization of America'.

I suggest you listen carefully tonight to what Mr. Obama has to say, as he has four years to govern with no possibility of re-election - in an environment where the Republican Party will have less sway over Main Street Americans than it now has, and where Republican Party 'currency' given a broad 'we are on the side of capitalism, and don't believe in taxing the rich' stance is not likely to help it much in the 2016 or subsequent Presidential elections.

The foregoing should mean that President Obama, beginning tonight, ought to take strong positions based on a carefully conceived and practical economic strategy. Look for that. If it doesn't happen, watch as the American economic boat lists ever more to the left, at ever increasing risk of capsizing.

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Ian can be contacted at icampbell@srddi.com

© 2013 Copyright Ian R. Campbell - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules