Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold And Silver Voodoo Analysis Price Forecasts - Austin_Galt
2.UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Price At or Very Close to an Important Low - Clive_Maund
4.Gold And Silver - PetroDollar On Its Deathbed? PMs About To Rally? No - Michael_Noonan
5.Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead - Rambus_Chartology
6.Stock Market Major Selloff Looms - Zeal_LLC
7.Inflate or Die! When Leverage Fails and Market Hope Turns to Fear - Ty_Andros
8.Gold Price Very Close to an Important Low - Clive_Maund
9.Market Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Financials and Currencies - EWI
10.U.S. Aggression - Will Russia and China Hold Their Fire? - Paul_Craig_Roberts
Last 5 days
Stock Market Wil-e-Coyote Moment May Have Arrived - 1st Oct 14
Europe Teetering the Ddge of a "Japan-style" Deflation - 30th Sept 14
Economists Economic Atonement - 30th Sept 14
Everything You Need to Know About the Stock Market S&P Index Until Christmas - 30th Sept 14
Singapore Becoming Global Gold Hub - Launches Kilo Bar Contract And Gold ATMs - 30th Sept 14
Germany Fights on Two Fronts to Preserve the Eurozone - 30th Sept 14
Turn the Tables on the Gold and Silver Market Manipulators - 30th Sept 14
U.S. 2014 Election Business as Usual - 30th Sept 14
Gold - Time to Buy the Dip? - 30th Sept 14
Urging Investors to Stay Liquid for the Coming Gold Stocks Boom - 30th Sept 14
The Japanese Deflation Myth and the Yen’s Slump - 29th Sept 14
Epic Investor Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Stocks Bear Market - 29th Sept 14
Russia’s Gokhran Buying Gold Bullion In 2014 and Will Buy Palladium In 2015 - 29th Sept 14
The End of Monetary Policy - 29th Sept 14
Here's What Rising Interest Rates Really Do to Your Shares - 29th Sept 14
Is a Credible Stock Market Top Forming? - 29th Sept 14
Silver Price At or Very Close to an Important Low - 29th Sept 14
Gold Price Very Close to an Important Low - 29th Sept 14
Nihilism And The Unknown Future - 29th Sept 14
Stock Market S&P, NAS Change In Trend? None Apparent, But A Caveat - 29th Sept 14
UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over! - 29th Sept 14
U.S. Aggression - Will Russia and China Hold Their Fire? - 28th Sept 14
Currency Wars and the Death of the Euro - Audio - 28th Sept 14
Obscure Maritime Law Practically “Guarantees” Profits for These Energy Companies - 28th Sept 14
Stock Market Primary IV Underway? - 27th Sept 14
Darwin And The Climate Apocalypse - 27th Sept 14
The Global Middle Class and Copper Consumption, A Stop Spike Event - 27th Sept 14
Can Money Save The Climate? - 27th Sept 14
Gold And Silver - PetroDollar On Its Deathbed? PMs About To Rally? No - 27th Sept 14
Debt and Inflation Consquences of American Fear - 27th Sept 14
U.S. and Global Confidence are in Divergence - So Are Stock Markets - 27th Sept 14
Are U.S. Cars About to Crash? - 27th Sept 14
Why the U.S. Created and Armed ISIS From Libya to Syria - 27th Sept 14
Stock Market vs the Developing Bear Market for Liberal Democracy? - 26th Sept 14
Stock Market Major Selloff Looms - 26th Sept 14
How My Charts Uncovered Two Big Stocks That Are Soaring Like Small Caps - 26th Sept 14
What Cycles Reveal About Stock Market Crash - 26th Sept 14
Gold Not A Safe Haven On Terrorism, Middle East Bombing, Russia ... Yet - 26th Sept 14
Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming - 26th Sept 14
Gold $1200 Underpinned by Physical Demand - 26th Sept 14
Inflate or Die! When Leverage Fails and Market Hope Turns to Fear - 26th Sept 14
Market Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Financials and Currencies - 26th Sept 14
Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead - 26th Sept 14
The Home Depot Breach Boils Our Blood – and It Should - 26th Sept 14
Why the Pundits are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices - 26th Sept 14
Where’s the Economic Growth? - 26th Sept 14
Stock Market Future Bull - 25th Sept 14
The Specter of Global Debt Default is Once Again Rearing its Head - 25th Sept 14
All Major Market Analysis and Forecasts Investor Open House has Started! - 25th Sept 14
Federal Reserve Policies Cause Booms and Busts - 25th Sept 14
Currency Wars Deepen - Russia, Kazakhstan Buy Very Large 30 Tons Of Gold In August - 25th Sept 14
Strong U.S. Dollar Pressures Gold - 25th Sept 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Most Exciting Event in the History of Technical Analysis

State of The Union - Where is U.S. Unemployment Headed?

Politics / Unemployment Feb 12, 2013 - 07:09 PM GMT

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Politics

This evening Eastern Time U.S. President Obama is scheduled to give his annual 'State of the Union' address. Favoured topics are said to be U.S. unemployment and jobs creation, and gun control. I expect Mr. Obama also to address the issue of defense spending, where he recently has been reported as saying 'Deep cuts' threat to security, Obama says in reference to pending defense budget cuts.


With respect to unemployment, i will be listening carefully tonight to see if, and if he does 'how', Mr. Obama addresses:

specific government programs aimed at creating meaningful, lasting manufacturing and service jobs - with emphasis on manufacturing - or speaks in general terms about job creation. Simply put, the less specific and more general he is when he speaks about job creation tonight, the more 'smoke' will be in the room. As the old saying goes 'where there is smoke there is fire'. Generalities will not help Main Street Americans searching for jobs;

whether he and his government believe a strong manufacturing base is essential to U.S. near and long-term economic growth, and hence meaningful economic recovery;

the issue of whether his government does or does not believe the U.S. suffers from 'structural unemployment'. Structural unemployment in simple terms means that either worker skills and required job skills are mis-matched, or workers are not in geographic proximity to available jobs. I believe structural unemployment does exist in the U.S. If Mr. Obama discusses it tonight, he may claim it either doesn't exist, or is not an important U.S. employment impediment;

what U.S. defense spending cuts are going to mean to American manufacturing jobs. This is an issue I have not seen addressed very often, but I think it could be an issue of significant importance - not only from the perspective of America's military strength going forward, but may prove to be negative to near term American employment. Cuts in U.S. defense spending may also negatively influence employment in countries whose manufacturers sub-contract to the U.S. defense sector;

employing unemployed skilled and semi-skilled workers in government sponsored infrastructure projects and, if he does speak to that, whether he specifically addresses where the money is going to come from for such a program;

possible repatriation of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. pursuant to enhanced protectionist trading policies or special taxes on imported manufactured goods - the latter being a different way of getting at the same thing. If he does speak to that, I will be curious to see if he speaks to the likely inflationary effect of such a program on Main Street America;

technology and automation advances, and how he and his government see those things play out going forward, where technology and automation advances generally increase productivity outputs - but at the expense of manufacturing job losses; and,

what I think to be the 'survival of the fittest' nature of American capitalism at its best (or worst, depending on one's point of view). Recently by a libertarian friend of mine who resides in North Carolina told me (paraphrased): "America is driven by opportunity, and at a base level it is every man for himself". I seriously doubt my friend and Mr. Obama would see 'eye to eye' on that, and I will be interested to see if Mr. Obama addresses what I refer to as the 'democratization of America'.

I suggest you listen carefully tonight to what Mr. Obama has to say, as he has four years to govern with no possibility of re-election - in an environment where the Republican Party will have less sway over Main Street Americans than it now has, and where Republican Party 'currency' given a broad 'we are on the side of capitalism, and don't believe in taxing the rich' stance is not likely to help it much in the 2016 or subsequent Presidential elections.

The foregoing should mean that President Obama, beginning tonight, ought to take strong positions based on a carefully conceived and practical economic strategy. Look for that. If it doesn't happen, watch as the American economic boat lists ever more to the left, at ever increasing risk of capsizing.

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Ian can be contacted at icampbell@srddi.com

© 2013 Copyright Ian R. Campbell - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014