Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
How Investors Can Profit From The Coming Resource Wars - 29th May 17
Gold vs. Gold Mining Shares – Just The Facts, Ma’am - 29th May 17
Walkers Crisps Pay Packet £5 Cash Wins After Buying 64 Multi-packs - 29th May 17
SPX/NDX/NAZ Hit New All-time Highs - 27th May 17
GBPUSD Top in Place, GOLD Price Ready to Rocket? - 27th May 17
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 27th May 17
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell - 27th May 17
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 - 26th May 17
Stock Market & Crude Oil Forecast! - 26th May 17
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 - 26th May 17
Bitcoin and AltCoins Crypto Price Correction - 26th May 17
Bearish Head and Shoulders in EURUSD? - 26th May 17
SELL US Stocks - Massive Market CRASH WARNING! - 26th May 17
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision - 26th May 17
Credit Downgrades May Prompt Stock Market Capital Shift - 26th May 17
Rosenstein and Mueller: the Regime Change Tag-Team - 25th May 17
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

State of The Union - Where is U.S. Unemployment Headed?

Politics / Unemployment Feb 12, 2013 - 07:09 PM GMT

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Politics

This evening Eastern Time U.S. President Obama is scheduled to give his annual 'State of the Union' address. Favoured topics are said to be U.S. unemployment and jobs creation, and gun control. I expect Mr. Obama also to address the issue of defense spending, where he recently has been reported as saying 'Deep cuts' threat to security, Obama says in reference to pending defense budget cuts.


With respect to unemployment, i will be listening carefully tonight to see if, and if he does 'how', Mr. Obama addresses:

specific government programs aimed at creating meaningful, lasting manufacturing and service jobs - with emphasis on manufacturing - or speaks in general terms about job creation. Simply put, the less specific and more general he is when he speaks about job creation tonight, the more 'smoke' will be in the room. As the old saying goes 'where there is smoke there is fire'. Generalities will not help Main Street Americans searching for jobs;

whether he and his government believe a strong manufacturing base is essential to U.S. near and long-term economic growth, and hence meaningful economic recovery;

the issue of whether his government does or does not believe the U.S. suffers from 'structural unemployment'. Structural unemployment in simple terms means that either worker skills and required job skills are mis-matched, or workers are not in geographic proximity to available jobs. I believe structural unemployment does exist in the U.S. If Mr. Obama discusses it tonight, he may claim it either doesn't exist, or is not an important U.S. employment impediment;

what U.S. defense spending cuts are going to mean to American manufacturing jobs. This is an issue I have not seen addressed very often, but I think it could be an issue of significant importance - not only from the perspective of America's military strength going forward, but may prove to be negative to near term American employment. Cuts in U.S. defense spending may also negatively influence employment in countries whose manufacturers sub-contract to the U.S. defense sector;

employing unemployed skilled and semi-skilled workers in government sponsored infrastructure projects and, if he does speak to that, whether he specifically addresses where the money is going to come from for such a program;

possible repatriation of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. pursuant to enhanced protectionist trading policies or special taxes on imported manufactured goods - the latter being a different way of getting at the same thing. If he does speak to that, I will be curious to see if he speaks to the likely inflationary effect of such a program on Main Street America;

technology and automation advances, and how he and his government see those things play out going forward, where technology and automation advances generally increase productivity outputs - but at the expense of manufacturing job losses; and,

what I think to be the 'survival of the fittest' nature of American capitalism at its best (or worst, depending on one's point of view). Recently by a libertarian friend of mine who resides in North Carolina told me (paraphrased): "America is driven by opportunity, and at a base level it is every man for himself". I seriously doubt my friend and Mr. Obama would see 'eye to eye' on that, and I will be interested to see if Mr. Obama addresses what I refer to as the 'democratization of America'.

I suggest you listen carefully tonight to what Mr. Obama has to say, as he has four years to govern with no possibility of re-election - in an environment where the Republican Party will have less sway over Main Street Americans than it now has, and where Republican Party 'currency' given a broad 'we are on the side of capitalism, and don't believe in taxing the rich' stance is not likely to help it much in the 2016 or subsequent Presidential elections.

The foregoing should mean that President Obama, beginning tonight, ought to take strong positions based on a carefully conceived and practical economic strategy. Look for that. If it doesn't happen, watch as the American economic boat lists ever more to the left, at ever increasing risk of capsizing.

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Ian can be contacted at icampbell@srddi.com

© 2013 Copyright Ian R. Campbell - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife