Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue - Clive_Maund
4.Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - Austin_Galt
5.New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - GoldCore
6.Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? - Rambus_Chartology
7.“Forgive Us Our Debts” – Only Way To Prevent Economic Meltdown - GoldCore
8.UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - GoldCore
10.Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - Mike_Shedlock
Last 5 days
Cameron Fears Debates Would Cost Tories the Election - Potential 12 Seat Swing to Labour - 6th Mar 15
Apple Major New Gold Buyer - Propel Gold Price Higher? - 6th Mar 15
Stock Market Dow Theory Divergence - 6th Mar 15
Ukraine, Neocons and Neonazis - 6th Mar 15
UK Election 2015 - Cameron Housing Bribe - 200,000 Discounted Homes for 400,000 Voters - 6th Mar 15
The Anthropology of Finance - 6th Mar 15
Portfolios, Insurance, and Gold - 6th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Justice For Some - Currency Wars - ECB Deposit Rates To -3% - 5th Mar 15
How to Play the Big Broker Stocks When Interest Rates Rise - 5th Mar 15
Here's What Stock Market Bulls Might Be Overlooking - 5th Mar 15
U.S. Soaring Crude Oil Stocks - Cushing and Gulf Coast Storage Filling Up Fast - 5th Mar 15
Japan's Intelligence Reform Inches Forward - 5th Mar 15
Gold Miner Index Breadth Oscillator, Forward Reckoning® - 5th Mar 15
Gold Price Set To Plunge Below $600 - 5th Mar 15
UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom - 5th Mar 15
Spock, Debt and the Kingdom of Denmark - 5th Mar 15
The Psychology of a Sideways Stock Market Trend - 5th Mar 15
Freedom from America - Getting Out Of Dodge - 5th Mar 15
What Top Hedge Fund Managers Really Think About Gold - 4th Mar 15
U.S. Dollar Strategic Backfire On U.S. Government Policy - 4th Mar 15
Canada’s Central Banks Orders End to ‘Spocking’ Of Canadian Dollar - Defacing Debasing Currencies - 4th Mar 15
Chicago's Only Possible Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy - 4th Mar 15
Gold Price and Mining Stocks Decline Together - 3rd Mar 15
Financial Slaughter - The Silence of the Lambs - 3rd Mar 15
Bondholders “Bailed In” In Austria – New Banking Crisis? - 3rd Mar 15
How to Profit from the Coming Oil Price Crunch - 3rd Mar 15
Is Japan Zimbabwe? Could Japan go Hyperinflation? - 3rd Mar 15
Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June - 3rd Mar 15
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market - 3rd Mar 15
BLS CPI Lie - How's That Dsflation Working Out for You? - 3rd Mar 15
Tesla Bonfire of the Money Printers’ Vanities - 3rd Mar 15
Gold Demand in UK, Europe and U.S. – Reuters Interview GoldCore - 2nd Mar 15
Watch the Skies... for Investor Profits - 2nd Mar 15
How Investors Can Identify the Best Small-Cap Stocks - 2nd Mar 15
Gold and Silver - What If the Precious Metal Stocks Bulls are Back - 2nd Mar 15
Students Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 3 - 2nd Mar 15
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! - 2nd Mar 15
Stock Market Weakening Trend - 2nd Mar 15
Gold Price Glimmer of Hope - 1st Mar 15
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air - 1st Mar 15
Varoufakis vs. the Troika - Showdown in Athens - 1st Mar 15
Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 - 1st Mar 15
Gold CoT Improving, But ... - 1st Mar 15
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - 28th Feb 15
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - 28th Feb 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 28th Feb 15
U.S. Debt Breaking Bad - 28th Feb 15
NATO Frankenstein - When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control - 28th Feb 15
Gold And Silver Insanity Prevails; Precious Metals Without Direction - 28th Feb 15
Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide - 28th Feb 15
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains - 28th Feb 15
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - 28th Feb 15
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge - 28th Feb 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The State of the Global Markets 2015

State of The Union - Where is U.S. Unemployment Headed?

Politics / Unemployment Feb 12, 2013 - 07:09 PM GMT

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Politics

This evening Eastern Time U.S. President Obama is scheduled to give his annual 'State of the Union' address. Favoured topics are said to be U.S. unemployment and jobs creation, and gun control. I expect Mr. Obama also to address the issue of defense spending, where he recently has been reported as saying 'Deep cuts' threat to security, Obama says in reference to pending defense budget cuts.


With respect to unemployment, i will be listening carefully tonight to see if, and if he does 'how', Mr. Obama addresses:

specific government programs aimed at creating meaningful, lasting manufacturing and service jobs - with emphasis on manufacturing - or speaks in general terms about job creation. Simply put, the less specific and more general he is when he speaks about job creation tonight, the more 'smoke' will be in the room. As the old saying goes 'where there is smoke there is fire'. Generalities will not help Main Street Americans searching for jobs;

whether he and his government believe a strong manufacturing base is essential to U.S. near and long-term economic growth, and hence meaningful economic recovery;

the issue of whether his government does or does not believe the U.S. suffers from 'structural unemployment'. Structural unemployment in simple terms means that either worker skills and required job skills are mis-matched, or workers are not in geographic proximity to available jobs. I believe structural unemployment does exist in the U.S. If Mr. Obama discusses it tonight, he may claim it either doesn't exist, or is not an important U.S. employment impediment;

what U.S. defense spending cuts are going to mean to American manufacturing jobs. This is an issue I have not seen addressed very often, but I think it could be an issue of significant importance - not only from the perspective of America's military strength going forward, but may prove to be negative to near term American employment. Cuts in U.S. defense spending may also negatively influence employment in countries whose manufacturers sub-contract to the U.S. defense sector;

employing unemployed skilled and semi-skilled workers in government sponsored infrastructure projects and, if he does speak to that, whether he specifically addresses where the money is going to come from for such a program;

possible repatriation of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. pursuant to enhanced protectionist trading policies or special taxes on imported manufactured goods - the latter being a different way of getting at the same thing. If he does speak to that, I will be curious to see if he speaks to the likely inflationary effect of such a program on Main Street America;

technology and automation advances, and how he and his government see those things play out going forward, where technology and automation advances generally increase productivity outputs - but at the expense of manufacturing job losses; and,

what I think to be the 'survival of the fittest' nature of American capitalism at its best (or worst, depending on one's point of view). Recently by a libertarian friend of mine who resides in North Carolina told me (paraphrased): "America is driven by opportunity, and at a base level it is every man for himself". I seriously doubt my friend and Mr. Obama would see 'eye to eye' on that, and I will be interested to see if Mr. Obama addresses what I refer to as the 'democratization of America'.

I suggest you listen carefully tonight to what Mr. Obama has to say, as he has four years to govern with no possibility of re-election - in an environment where the Republican Party will have less sway over Main Street Americans than it now has, and where Republican Party 'currency' given a broad 'we are on the side of capitalism, and don't believe in taxing the rich' stance is not likely to help it much in the 2016 or subsequent Presidential elections.

The foregoing should mean that President Obama, beginning tonight, ought to take strong positions based on a carefully conceived and practical economic strategy. Look for that. If it doesn't happen, watch as the American economic boat lists ever more to the left, at ever increasing risk of capsizing.

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Ian can be contacted at icampbell@srddi.com

© 2013 Copyright Ian R. Campbell - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014