Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to Death - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Germany Pivoting East, Exit US Dollar, Enter Gold Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Flight MH17 – Kiev Flash Mob's Last False Flag? - Andrew_McKillop
4.Stock Market Crash Nightmare! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold - The Million DOLLAR Question... - Rambus_Chartology
6.Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way - Michael_Noonan
7.The Jewish Selfish Gene, People Chosen by God, Everyone Else is Goyim to Kill - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Israeli Promised Land Dream - The Criminal Roadmap Towards “Greater Israel”? - Felicity Arbuthnot
9.Which Way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities - Gary_Dorsch
10.U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 - Lacy Hunt
Last 5 days
Gold’s Seasonal Sweet Spot - Strongest Months Are August, September, November And January - 1st Aug 14 - GoldCore
Flagrant Rush To War In The Ukraine Crisis - 1st Aug 14
What Russian Sanctions Mean for Your Money - 1st Aug 14
The West's Reckless Rush Towards War with Russia - 1st Aug 14
Gold Price Advance Capped by the Dead Cat Dollar’s Recovery - 1st Aug 14
Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear Banking Operations - 1st Aug 14
Africa: New Land of Investor Opportunity? Pointing to the Positives - 1st Aug 14
Turning a Clinical Eye on Biotech Stocks with High Potential Investor Reward - 1st Aug 14
Gaza Death Cloud Hangs Over Sheffield Eid Festival 2014 at Millhouses Park - 1st Aug 14
Israels Final Solution of Turning Gaza Concentration Camp into a Grave Yard - 31st July 14
US Failure: Unintended Consequence - 31st July 14
Stock Market Breakdown! - 31st July 14
Echoes Of The Great War – Only An Echo In The Elite Mind - 31st July 14
This is Bad News for U.S. Economy and Stock Markets - 31st July 14
The Important Impact of This “Secret” Gold Agreement - 31st July 14
The Something For Nothing Society Death Spiral - 31st July 14
The Social Memory Dump, Shredding Society - 31st July 14
How Safe Are Unallocated Gold Bullion Accounts? - 31st July 14
USDJPY Big Bear Market - 31st July 14
No More School in Gaza Because All the Children are Dead Chant Israel's Jewish Fundementalists - 31st July 14
The Iron Dome Inside The Heads of Israel’s Leaders - 31st July 14
You Know a Politician or Talking Head is Clueless When….. - 31st July 14
Don't Get Married to Your Gold Stocks—It's a Performance-Based Relationship - 31st July 14
Stock Market Parabolic Collapse - Sowing the Seeds of the Next Depression - 30th July 14
How to Profit from the Russia Ukraine Conflict - 30th July 14
Greenspan: U.S. Economy Running Out of Buffer; Stock Market to See Significant Correction - 30th July 14
Rogue States And Loony Tunes - 30th July 14
Anne Elk’s Theory On Brontosauruses - 30th July 14
Our Totalitarian Future - Totalitarianism NOW! - 30th July 14
Stocks Bear Market Formation Revealed - 30th July 14
We Just Found “The Future” - 30th July 14
What the “Steak Bandit” Says About Asset Values - 30th July 14
Designer War By Default - Seven Types of Elite Madness - 30th July 14
Death of the U.S. Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really? - 29th July 14
We’re Ready to Profit in the Coming Gold Price Correction—Are You? - 29th July 14
Their Economy Will Collapse, Including Ours - 29th July 14
Silver Prices – Megaphone Patterns - 29th July 14
Real U.S. Interest Rates - Fed Exit a Blue Pill? - 29th July 14
Why Israel Should NOT Exist, Just Like Any Other Rogue State - 29th July 14
Gold Still Looking Good - 29th July 14
Silver Price Set To Star - 29th July 14
Our Population Growth Totalitarian Future - 29th July 14
World War 1 Cause and Consequences - The Planned Destruction of Christendom - 29th July 14
Will Crashing Commodities Crash the Stock Market? - 29th July 14
Ukraine MH17 - Washington Thinks Americans Are Fools - 29th July 14
Stock Market Bubble Warning - 29th July 14
Gold Price and U.S. Dollar’s July Rally - 28th July 14
Second Quarter Corporate Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Economic Recovery - 28th July 14
Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box - 28th July 14
Mossad in Gaza, Ukraine and the Cult Of The All-Powerful Elite - 28th July 14
Elliott Wave Gold Price Projection Since 1970 - 28th July 14
Investors Remain Uncertain As Stock Fluctuate Near Long-Term Highs - Will The Uptrend Extend? - 28th July 14
The Mass Psychology Of Decline - 28th July 14
Will the US Destroy the World? - Don’t Expect to Live Much Longer - 28th July 14
GDM and GDXJ Gold Stocks In-depth Look - 28th July 14
Stock Market One FINAL High? - 28th July 14
What It Means - Paradigm Collapse And Culture Crisis - 27th July 14
Wall Street Shadow Banking: You Can’t Taper a Ponzi Scheme: “Time to Reboot” - 27th July 14
6 Tips for Picking Winning Gold Mining Stocks - 27th July 14
Israel's War on Children, Exterminating the Palestinians Future - 27th July 14
Guilt By Insinuation - How American Propaganda Works - 26th July 14
Surprise Nuclear Attack On Russia To Liberate Ukraine - 26th July 14
Use "Magic" Of Gold/Silver Ratio To Greatly Increase Your Physical Holdings - 26th July 14
Derivatives Market Species Origins - Abuse, Props and Risks - 26th July 14
Stock Market Manipulation and Technical Analysis - 26th July 14
China’s Stock Market Finally Looks Like A Buy - 26th July 14
Ed Milliband Fears Israel Jewish Fundamentalist Gaza War Massacres Backlash - 26th July 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

U.S. Dollar Rally Reason for Falling Gold Price

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Feb 18, 2013 - 12:06 PM GMT

By: Donald_W_Dony

Commodities

Gold's recent decline has brought into question, with many investors, why the price of the metal is falling and where it will find support.

Over the last few days, gold has dropped through a key support level at $1650 and descended quickly down to the next lower level at $1600-$1595 (Chart 1).


The main reason appears to be because of the advance in the US dollar. The US$ has risen from $0.789 to its present $0.805 in just two weeks. Commodities, which are priced in US dollars, lose some of their value when the American currency goes up.

But why is the dollar going up?

A lot of the explanation appears to be in global equity markets. When world markets consolidate or correct, even for a short time, money flows to the safe haven US$ pulling it higher (Chart 2). Currently global equity indexes are consolidating. This is the second pullback since the new up leg began in November. The first brief correction (December 2012) in the Dow Jones World Stock Index had a similar effect on the dollar moving it up from $0.790 to $0.808.

The longer term view of gold is still bullish. It remains in 12-year climb with no technical signs of weakness. The trading pattern of the metal does suggest that gold goes through periods of consolidation before advancing to the next level (Chart 3). A move above $1800 would indicate that the current consolidation is finished.

Bottom line: The trigger for gold's recent drop appears to be the rise in the US dollar. This was brought about by the current consolidation/correct in world markets. However, these upticks in the dollar are generally short lived and usually only last a few weeks. The dollar remains in a long term downward trend.

Models suggest that the current correction in world stock markets is expected to extend into the second half of February. The dollar should decline once the bull market in world indexes begins again.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
www.technicalspeculator.com

COPYRIGHT © 2013 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014