Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
Blackstone, BlackRock or a Public Bank for California’s Money? - 27th May 18
Stock Market Study: How Long After a 10%+ “Small Correction” to Make New Highs? - 27th May 18
Gold, US Stocks and Bonds - 26th May 18
Climate Change Canaries and Our Changing Climate - 26th May 18
Gold Junior Stocks GDXJ ETF Fundamentals - 26th May 18
What to Expect at a Critical Stock Market Point: End of a Wave 2 Rally - 25th May 18
Merlin Passes Top Tips for Buying and Using Premium vs Standard, Theme Parks UK - 25th May 18
Trump “Victories” on Trade are Anything But - 25th May 18
Crude Oil: It’s Here! - 25th May 18
Stock Market Distribution Pattern Revealed - 25th May 18
Stock Market Topping - Everything Looks Rosy at the End of a Trend! - 25th May 18
Trump Puts North Korea Nuclear WAR Back on Track as Plans for Nobel Peace Prize Evaporate - 25th May 18
Insane EU GDPR SCAM Triggers Mass Email Spam Attacks! - 24th May 18
Stock Market Higher Again, but Still No Breakout - 24th May 18
Study: Slowing Global Economic Growth IS NOT Bearish for U.S. Stocks - 24th May 18
What if This Week’s Rally in Gold is Already Over? - 24th May 18
EUR/USD – Reward for Bears - 24th May 18
5 Terrible Trading Mistakes That Rookie Investors Keep Making - 24th May 18
More Clarity for the Short Term for Bitcoin Price - 22nd May 18
Study: A Rising and Strong U.S. Dollar Isn’t Consistently Bearish for the Stock Market - 22nd May 18
Gold, Silver & US Dollar Updates with Review of Latest COTS - 22nd May 18
Upside DOW Stock Market Breakout May Be Just the Beginning - 22nd May 18
5 Reasons Why Forex Trading Is Becoming Such A Big Deal In SA - 22nd May 18
Fibonacci And Elliot Wave Predict Stock Market Breakout Highs - 21st May 18
Stock Market Ideal Cycle Low Near - 21st May 18
5 Effects Of Currency Fluctuations On The Economy - 21st May 18
Financial Conditions are Still too Easy for the Stocks Bull Market to End - 21st May 18
US Stock Market Elliott Wave Predictions for 2018 and Beyond - 20th May 18
Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos? - 20th May 18
US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish - 20th May 18
Looking for a Turn in Gold Price - 20th May 18
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 - 19th May 18
Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? - 19th May 18
Three Drivers of Gold Price - 18th May 18
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 - 18th May 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

GOLD Price Forecast - Should be Completing a Cyclical Low

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Feb 22, 2013 - 06:21 PM GMT

By: David_Banister

Commodities

Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February.  My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month.  With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?


First let’s examine the last 5 years and you can see how I noted tops and bottoms in the chart below:

ATP1

That brings us forward to todays $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work centers on Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns of course.  In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much.  With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare pattern Elliott termed the “Double Three” pattern.  Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern.  For sure, if we add in traditional technical indicators along with sentiment, we can see very oversold levels coupled with the potential Double Three pattern and probably start getting long here for a trade back to the 1650’s as possible:

ATP2

Obviously this chart shows oversold readings in the lower right corner using the CCI indicator. That said we would like to see 1550 hold on a weekly closing basis to remain optimistic for a strong rebound.

Consider our free weekly reports or a 33% discount by going to www.markettrendforecast.com

Dave Banister

CIO-Founder
Active Trading Partners, LLC
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
TheMarketTrendForecast.com

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for ActiveTradingPartners.com.  David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (SafeHaven.Com, 321Gold.com, Gold-Eagle.com, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures.

© 2013 Copyright Dave Banister- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules