Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February. My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month. With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?

First let’s examine the last 5 years and you can see how I noted tops and bottoms in the chart below:

That brings us forward to todays $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work centers on Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns of course. In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much. With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare pattern Elliott termed the “Double Three” pattern. Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern. For sure, if we add in traditional technical indicators along with sentiment, we can see very oversold levels coupled with the potential Double Three pattern and probably start getting long here for a trade back to the 1650’s as possible:

Obviously this chart shows oversold readings in the lower right corner using the CCI indicator. That said we would like to see 1550 hold on a weekly closing basis to remain optimistic for a strong rebound.

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Dave Banister

CIO-Founder
Active Trading Partners, LLC
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
TheMarketTrendForecast.com

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for ActiveTradingPartners.com. David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (SafeHaven.Com, 321Gold.com, Gold-Eagle.com, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.

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