Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Redefining Political Economy, Globalization & Business Models Consequent on Corona Virus Pandemics - 9th Apr 20
Plus500 Rreview - 9th Apr 20
Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio - 9th Apr 20
Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism - 9th Apr 20
Going to School in Lockdown Britain, Dobcroft Sheffield - 9th Apr 20
Amazon Face Masks to Protect Against Covid-19 Viral Particles N95, FPP2, PM2.5, for Kids and Adults - 9th Apr 20
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? - 8th Apr 20
Market Predictions And The Business Implications - 8th Apr 20
When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis - 8th Apr 20
BBC Newsnight Focuses on Tory Leadership Whilst Boris Johnson Fights for his Life! - 8th Apr 20
The Big Short Guides us to What is Next for the Stock Market - 8th Apr 20
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move - 8th Apr 20
The Post CoronaVirus New Normal - 8th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Cyprus Deposits Theft Bank Run Trigger for Stock Market Drop?

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Mar 17, 2013 - 07:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Financial SHOCK and AWE has sent the Greek cypriot population into a panic as the Government of Cyprus upped the anti in the game of systemic theft of wealth from savers / all depositors by virtue of the Governments announcement to steal an average of 10% of ALL bank deposits in Cypriot banks as part of a Euro 10 billion bailout plan, including declaring a bank holiday to prevent bank runs whilst the fine details are worked out as to exactly who will have what percentage stolen from their bank accounts.


Your Savings are NOT SAFE

Following the financial crisis of 2008, governments all over the world stepped forward to prevent bank runs Northern Rock style by guaranteeing deposits upto Euros 100,000. The news out of the Cyprus now means those guarantees are worthless. This is a warning to depositors of all nations as it implies that ANY future bank bailouts will also imply some direct loss (theft from) depositors. At the end of the day governments that are bankrupt cannot guarantee anything! That means ALL of the Euro-zone PIIGS.

The Cyprus Bank Run Contagion WILL SPREAD Because the likes of Spanish Banks are STILL BANKRUPT! The People of SPAIN Understand this, they also now understand that they are NEXT to have their savings stolen by a state that cannot guarantee anything! Refer to one of my earlier articles on what to do to protect your savings from being stolen - 03 Dec 2011 - How to Protect Your Bank Deposits, Savings From Euro-zone Collapse Financial Armageddon

This is a quick update as I will be writing at greater depth early next week with regards how to protect against the theft of wealth from savers to protect the bankster elite which I have been warning of for the periphery sovereigns for several years and repeatedly suggesting that all PIIGS depositors should move funds out of periphery banks and into either hard assets or the likes of German bonds (26 Nov 2010 - Euro Debt Crisis Bankruptcy Bailout Queue, Protect Savings & Deposits From Banks Going Bankrupt! ).

For countries such as UK the theft has been just as great as what the Cypriots are expected to experience as the theft has been STEALTH by means of high inflation that equates to approx 14% STOLEN from UK savers over the past 4 years i.e. the amount that savers have lost after REAL Inflation (CPI+1.5%) and Taxes (20%) as savings interest rates have been artificially depressed by the Bank of England so as to funnel wealth into the bankrupt banks and monetize the governments large budget deficit. All cyprus is doing is stealing 10% directly because as being in the euro-zone it CANNOT PRINT MONEY AND INFLATE as the UK and US have been doing.

The news out of Cyprus will clearly hit the financial markets hard, such as stocks and periphery bonds as it is expected to spark a flight to safety Monday on contagion fears of being replicated in the likes of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, which implies this could be THE trigger for the anticipated reversal in stock market trends towards a significant correction as forecast in the Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook 2013 and Beyond (FREE DOWNLOAD) as illustrated below :

Other manifestations of the flight to quality will likely see the Euro plunge and Sterling and the Dollar rise including their bonds.

Dow Trading

The Dow on Friday closed at 14,514, down some 25 points on the day and has run far beyond that which anyone could have imagined even a few weeks ago, my original expectations of March 2011, that's TWO YEARS AGO! was for the Dow to target a trend to a new all time high of 14,200 before encountering significant resistance, that target has been more than achieved with the market giving an extended opportunity to bank profits on what has turned out to be an exceptional 4 month bull run since the mid November low off of 12,471, up 16.5%.

Given the existing over-extended state of the stock market trend and the negative news out of Cyprus / euro-zone, I would be very surprised if the stock market rally resumes Monday, instead I am banking on a series of SELL Triggers being triggered where my initial SHORT trigger is at Dow 14,465, which I expect to be triggered in EARLY Trading. The next trigger is at Dow 14,415, which I expect will also be triggered tomorrow.

Ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE NEWSLETTER for how to protect your wealth from crooked governments engaged in money printing fraud and outright theft Cyprus style, also see in my latest ebook Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond (FREE DOWNLOAD).

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39527.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2013 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

despe906
19 Mar 13, 05:07
VIX alternative

After Sunday evening big gap down, DJIA futures retraced all the losses - the process started at European session open. The 5m charts gave some solid buy signals on DJIA, SnP, Nikkei and Ftse indices. Was it predictable? Well, the initial push at the Europe open was up, then the rest was a simple continuation after a pullback in a trend. The sentiment is still bullish and first signs of a correction are yet to come.

My vix alternative - 'market oracle' at google trends seems to be going a bit lower.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=market%20oracle&cmpt=q


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Mar 13, 08:20
Trading Extreme Risk

Hi

Yes, trading is extreme high risk, the best traders in the world are not going to be profitable more than 60% of the time, anyone that says otherwise is LIEING!

The Dow has triggered two clear sells off of the high, the sells hold as long as the prev high is not breached.

Yes, your MO graph closely reflects MO earnings :), I guess a lot of competition has emerged. If I did not enjoy operating this site, I would have ceased doing so several years ago, but... then how would I express my ANGER and OUTRAGE at the Politicians, banskster scum and the crooked financial sales industry that pretends anyone can trade, when in reality perhaps only 5% will be successful.

Best

NW


Nat
19 Mar 13, 16:37
sell triggers

Hi Nadeem,

Just curious. What timeframe are you basing your sell triggers above on? Is it the 5 minute timeframe? Why such a low timeframe? Doesn't this increase your risk of getting stopped out due to noise? May I ask where did you place your stop losses - how far above the previous high? I understand that time is a fractal so no need to explain that.

Are you basing your sell triggers on the immediate lows or the resistance of the previous highs? e.g. sell trigger 1.

(I personally had been waiting for 14300 to be triggered to indicate a top was in but hey I'm just a newbie)

Lastly, I wonder what degree of probability you think a similar situation to Cyprus arrives at our door? Is this likely? I understand the argument that we have already effectively been hit by probably a 25% tax to date due to QE and currency debasement.

Why has the US bought 1.5 million hollow bullets for Homeland Security and 2500 armoured tanks? Are they expecting something sinister in the future too?

Right from the very start of the sovereign debt crisis, I always expected the US would be the last to fall as USD is still the reserve currency and has the deepest debt markets. The pound will fall before the dollar does imho. This is why I imagine the US markets and USD are doing so well at the moment as world capital continues to flow into America right now. Capital always seeks safety first and then hides when Governments run out of other people's money.

Smart move Nadeem putting your cash into property. You got a significant amount of your hard earnt capital into a private asset. You are not the only person doing this currently.


despe906
20 Mar 13, 04:35
A pro-trader

Nadeem,

It’s not your fault that people search for oracle only when fear creeps up their minds. I don’t think there is a lot of valuable content out there on the web as accurate in terms of analysis and forecast as your articles. I post links to your articles on FB whenever I agree with you, which is most of the time. I am sure that Marketoracle is helping a lot of people all the time.

This little google tool shows what’s going on in the world quite well: ‘pope’ spiked in 2005 and now. ‘Jesus’ is stable with spikes every April and December. ‘Vaccine’ shows a spike in 2009 when media didn’t want people to concentrate on the economy too much. ‘Savings’, ‘travel’, ‘car’, trading’, investing’, ‘stock market’ are all drifting lower. ‘Unemployment peaked in mid 2010. ‘Myspace’ declined to a sleeping point. ‘Google’ is on the rise. ‘Vagina’ shows no sign of weakness.

Trading is the most difficult job in the world and I am sick whenever I see an ad ‘become a pro-trader in a week’ showing a smiling face of a good looking guy, ‘a pro trader’.

The best trader in the world, Jesse Livemore became the richest man in the world, then lost it all. Officially no one knows how, some blame the FED policies, some say he listened to a friend’s advice again. I know what happened, because I spoke to him in a dream:) He told me that ‘trading is not about the rules’. (At that time I worked hard to maintain discipline in application of my rules). What then is more important than disciplined application of trading rules? He said :’ State, mental state. To be able to see options and choices, to be able to make the best decisions, to read the market. Awareness and knowledge only amount to nothing! A loss, a win, a strong conviction, personals problems - all affect your mental state. Lack of patience limits your trading arsenal considerably. When you beat the market and become the richest man in the world, you’re a different man. You cannot imagine what this kind of success would do to you. Your arrogance cripples your trading abilities, your lack of flexibility takes away rules you should use, so that in the end only two options remain : all or nothing’.


Nadeem_Walayat
20 Mar 13, 21:14
Dow Trading

Time frames - 5 min, 15min, 1hr, 4hr, 8hr.

Stop 14565.

14,300 too far for trading, it's all risk vs reward - 100 points for 1000 points.

Cyprus - UK - The risk is always increasing - So I reduce my exposure to the risk by cutting what I have in banks and put into harder assets which I have been writing about for several years.

It all boils down to ones risk of ruin and controlling it which is something the politcians do not understand which is why we are still in crisis 5 years on!

PROPERTY - Yes, since the start of 2012 parking 50% of my wealth in property now enables me to sleep well at night :)

TRADING - Yes, trading is more a state of mind then technical tools, and you can only achieve that by under standing risk vs reward. My goal is not to expect to make a profit on every trade but to ensure that the potential reward is far greater than potential risk at least X3. I am more than happy to make money on 6 out of every 10 trades because the winners tend to be many times the losers in points banked the most extreme case example was the 1987 crash, where on one trade my risk was 40 dow points for 700 point reward.

The number of wins vs losses does not count, instead what counts is risk vs reward. The problem is many traders are psychological focused on trying to win every trade. Which is why I don't like to talk about FIGHT CLUB, I mean TRADING, because most people just do not understand becasue they are looking in the wrong direction.

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules