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Stock Market SPX Final Thrust Higher

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Apr 10, 2013 - 05:27 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Several EW analysts have taken a stab at labeling the wave structure on the SPX. Every one has completely missed the Broadening Top structure. As a result, they are mis-labeling the waves, IMO. Broadening Tops are known to be completely populated with corrective, a-b-c waves. That is still so, especially in the final thrust, which I have labeled.


This allows for a final thrust in Wave (v) of [c] before a breakdown. This also corresponds with today’s FOMC meeting and announcement at 2:00pm. In case you haven’t noticed, the market ALWAYS goes up into a FOMC announcement. Whether it is “buy the rumor and sell the news” or just simply the Fed liquidity pump in overdrive is hard for me to ascertain.

This is now the fourth Broadening Top formation since November 16. The problem is that none of the formations have been triggered. This one has the highest probability of being triggered, simply because the current Master Cycle is not yet finished at an appropriate low and this happens to be the longest Master Cycle I have seen. I would call it buyer fatigue. All of the ramps to new highs have been made on incredibly low (and successively lower) volumes. The declines are where we see the volume spikes, including the last hour of the day yesterday. Once the sellers become more eager, they will overwhelm the buyers. If this wave structure is correct as labeled, the top should come in between 1577.32 and 1580.90.

VIX is nearly at its Wace (C) bottom. It must make a marginal new low in the vicinity of 12.30 before punching higher. That has a high probability of happening this morning.

Regards,

Tony

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