Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Silver COT Report - The Day the Numbers Lied

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 May 17, 2013 - 08:33 PM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Commodities

Prices ended down slightly once again for both silver and gold last week. There was no great change noted in the COT reports for either precious metal, and the monthly Bank Participation Report was a non-event for silver. This is once again leaving many observers scratching their heads about the suddenly questionable reliability of these numbers.


They seem to provide especially important information because they represent the last window of insight into what the elephants are doing in these commodity markets. It is not exactly rocket science when it comes to interpreting the data in those reports.

Part of the belief that there must be more complexity to these numbers comes from some very loud voices entrenched in the "denial of suppression” camp.

Nevertheless, the greatest absurdity arises when one considers that the CFTC — the very regulatory agency that has spent years supposedly ‘investigating’ silver price manipulation — also happens to be the same agency that produces these very simple reports that demonstrate unquestionably that the trading structure in these markets could not be anything other than manipulative.

As has been noted here before, the concentrated long silver position accumulated by the Hunt Brothers for which they were persecuted was a fraction of what the bullion banks currently hold on the short side today. It also appears that not much has changed in their overall short position since the latest price smash seen last month.

Questions about the COT Emerge

Recent months have seen a resurgence of questions being asked regarding the reliability of the COT data.

Many people have been asking why they should trust these COT numbers when just about every other important economic indicator is tampered with, or distorted, and then trumpeted to the complacent masses via the mainstream media.

The ongoing dichotomy in the historical open interest numbers between gold and silver seems especially notable. Also significant is the apparent resilience of the speculative longs in silver, despite repeated violent washouts.

Another interesting observation is the relative stasis in the positions of the large commercial shorts, which "normally" tend to decline in the wake of these sell-offs.

The Last Bit of Integrity Left?

Observers have long questioned the integrity of the CFTC’s data. Also, Just about anyone who follows these metal markets closely understands the influence of the ‘To Big to Fail’ or TBTF mentality. Whether they admit it or not will mainly depend on their business model.

Admission by the most vocal of stock pickers would undermine much of their premise for buying equity in businesses. Yet, an intelligent minority actually still sees precious metals as more than just a curious historical relic or an annoying tradition. They tend to perceive the often inconvenient truths about the world’s financial and political systems.

Eventually, will these reported numbers disappear in the name of market safety or to protect the identity of the TBTF entities?  Removing the COT data to protect the positions of the bullion banks would seem fruitless and probably contradictory, but perhaps this is not unlike most other regulatory agency activity.

The Risk to Market Confidence

Unfortunately, it seems probable that confidence will have taken a significant hit if this occurs. The markets will have completely split, confidence will be lost in all derivatives, and the physical market will take over again to begin the ‘great revaluation’.

Of course, this scenario would completely backfire on the agencies because the exchanges depend economically on the huge trading volume now provided by the algorithmic trading hedge funds. Most likely, it would simply shed more light on what should now be obvious to every serious precious metals observer and investor.

Basically that the trading structure in the silver futures market gives rise to price discovery, and that this mechanism has long been divorced from the real fundamentals for physical silver. Instead, it is almost entirely driven by the vested interests of the for-profit exchanges and their largest clients.

For more articles like this, and to stay updated on the most important economic, financial, political and market events related to silver and precious metals, visit www.silver-coin-investor.com

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com and Hard-Money-Newsletter-Review.com

    Copyright © 2013 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dr. Jeff Lewis Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules