Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

S&P Stock Index Trying To Hold On To 1576.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Jun 25, 2013 - 10:20 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

We closed at 1573, thus, that really is a hold for now. It doesn't look too promising in terms of holding too much longer but the bulls did fight back some today from the breakdown. The S&P 500 fell hard and lost 1576 with force but again, did manage to come back late and hold for the most part. The reason we most likely held wasn't anything bullish in nature. The reality is it was most likely caused by oversold short-term charts on the S&P 500. Dow and Nasdaq. In addition, some leading stocks, which have been crushed recently, hit 30 RSI on their daily charts and that hasn't happened in a very long time. This brought in some bottom fishers expecting a bounce off of oversold not seen in some time.


The move up off the breakdown and recovery wasn't special by any means. We got well above only to fall back below by a hair late. The buying wasn't across the board either. Few stocks led the way instead of it being everywhere. If a real bottom was being made we'd have likely seen the big boys and girls of the stock market blast higher. Stocks such as (PCLN), Google Inc. (GOOG), and a few others we normally see explode when things have turned very bullish. Goldman Sachs Inc. (GS) didn't do much nor did any of the financials, so I think we probably rally a bit first but ultimately lose 1576 with some force before setting the bottom. The bulls will try hard to get us back over 1576 but I don't think it'll hold very long. We shall see, but today wasn't a great day for the bulls, even though they did manage to barely hold the line at 1576. Yes, like I said, we did close three points below but that's not a breakdown.

The real trouble with today's candle sticks is that we saw a second very large gap down in the index daily charts across the board and those gaps remain open. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 in particular now have two huge open gaps and that puts a cap on the buying short-term as the bulls know the bears will run in and pound the market if we get back up to the first gap top. Two large open gap downs really hammer the bulls psychologically. The market has some real short tern technical damage that won't be easy for the bulls to overcome. The bulls had the advantage for a very long time but not the shoe is on the other foot. The bears know they're in control and aren't likely to allow 1600 resistance get taken out on a closing basis before knocking this market down to lower levels in the days ahead.

The bulls are going to need some very unexpected good news to hit to wipe out those gaps, but to be honest, that's not likely to happen any time soon. Short-term technicals say we're likely to head lower although I think a small rally may try to take place first. That's no guarantee but it seems with today's close being what it was, the bulls have a shot towards 1600 but another large gap down wouldn't shock me either although I don't honestly expect it. Just know the technical set-up is more bearish for now.

No matter where we look now there are leaders breaking below key 50-day exponential moving average support. When they back test they are failing badly and heading back south which is a sign that the big money is not ready to support these stocks. They get small moves back up from oversold, but they are not blasting back over those 50's with strong volume and oscillator movement to confirm the worst is behind us. When they can burst above and stay there for a few days then we know things are much better. For now gaps and moving averages are stopping any and all gains.

With this in mind we look for support. 1576 is still support on the S&P 500, but below that we have a confluence around the 1530/1540 area. Just below that is the 200 day exponential moving average near 1512. We could go all the way down there but that's unclear for now. The resistance comes in from 1600 to 1614. I don't think we'll be seeing 1614 any time soon to be blunt. If we can get down towards 1530/1540 we will actually be oversold on the key index daily charts for the first time in quite a long period. It would serve the market well longer term but for now, one moment at a time. Let's see if we can clear above 1600. If not, I expect another strong move lower soon.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2013 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in