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How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why You have to Be Invested in the Stock Market Right Now

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Aug 05, 2013 - 12:13 PM GMT

By: Money_Morning


Our friend and frequent Money Morningcontributor Frank Holmes put together a chart of S&P 500 gains that you have to see.

The index closed July with a monthly gain of 4.9%. This is the 14th month since 2009 that the S&P 500 has gained at least 4%.

Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, went back and reviewed the other 13 months with +4% gains.

He recorded the S&P's performance in the following one-month and three-month period after the month that it gained more than 4%.

His chart tells an interesting story...

Holmes found that what followed was an 84.6% probability of returns, with averages running 2.3% on the one-month and 5.4% on the three month.

Almost all of the three-month gains are north of 3%. In fact, only twice does the three-month performance show any reversal at all.

Take a look...

S&P 500 Positive in July. What Does History Show Us?

Dates: S&P 500 +4% Or More In 1 Month

1 Month Change

What Happened In Following Month

What Happened In Following 3 Months

July 2013




January 2013




February 2012




January 2012




October 2011




December 2010




September 2010




July 2010




March 2010




November 2009




July 2009




May 2009




April 2009




March 2009




Post-2008 Probability of Positive Returns



Post-2008 Average



1928-to-date Probability of Positive Returns



1928-to-date Average



Source: Bloomberg

Source: Frank Holmes' "Frank Talk"

Holmes' data suggests that there's no real end in sight for the S&P 500 rally.

This is why Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani - who has been called "The Reluctant Bull" - is all about riding this rally out.

"You have to be in it to win it," Gilani said Friday. "You can't afford to be on the sidelines. [The U.S.] is the place to be in terms of growth. We are the place to be in terms of a safe haven for money. We are also the place to be because our stock market is the most liquid in the world."

As Gilani pointed out, there's just no substitute for stocks right now as the Great Rotation continues more or less unabated, and it's continuing to make a lot of people a lot of money.

For investors, this means to make sure you are in the best possible position to capitalize on this rally - put your stops in place, and enjoy the ride.

Source :

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

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