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Stock Market Decline May Come With Warning

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Aug 05, 2013 - 06:26 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

The SPX is in day 42 of its Trading Cycle beginning at the June 24
low. Instead of 45 days from low-to-low, it appears that this cycle may be more like 60 days in duration. That gives us an approximate 17 calendar day decline from today/tomorrow, should the high come in on the next two days. The alternate probability takes us to Thursday, Aug 8 as the high, with the subsequent decline following.


This week is a “no news” week, suggesting the decline may come without warning. ZeroHedge comments, “Compared to last week's macro-event juggernaut, this week will be an absolute bore, although with a bevy of Fed speakers on deck - both good and bad cops - there will be more than enough catalysts to preserve the "upward channel" scramble in the S&P and the zero volume levitation to new all time daily highs despite the lack of daily bad news. Speaking of Fed speakers, we have Fisher today, Evans’ tomorrow followed by both Plosser and Pianalto on Wednesday.”

Today is number 257 in the Current Master Cycle in the VIX. This suggests a low may be tomorrow, if it goes for the “ideal” time span, if it hasn’t already been made. There is a chance for a “throw-under” beneath the 3 ½ year trendline in the VIX. It suggests an alternate view that the March 15 low was Wave (A) of [5] in the Ending Diagonal. This is such a close call that I do not even want to place odds on it. It would also clear up the lack of clarity in the Elliott Wave.

Either way, the launch from the bottom may be pretty spectacular.

Regards,

Tony

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