Best Financial Markets Analysis Article This is an update to the gold price forecast posted on the 20th of March which illustrated a downtrend target for gold of $850. Subsequent price action now enables me to refine the forecast trend as illustrated by the below graph.

Gold has reached a short-term oversold state on hitting $875 which has led to a corrective rally back through $900. This rally is corrective and is unlikely to carry much higher in terms of price. The target for the current rally is at 50% of the current impulse decline i.e. $917, at most gold could extend the rally to $920, however the risks are for a sharp continuation of the downtrend towards the refined target range for gold of between $835 and $800. Therefore the current rally presents a low risk shorting opportunity to add to shorts or initiate new shorts with a tight stop over the target max high $920, with stop movement on a decline back through $900 which would imply a resumption of the downtrend. However positions should always be initiated on short-term triggers, the immediate trigger for which is $890, which is expected to rise on today's price action towards $896.

The only caution which signals short-term volatility is the oversold MACD state which requires gold to hang around $900 for a few days to reduce this oversold state. However powerfull impulse moves are more than capable of moving an oversold market to a much more oversold state.

By Nadeem Walayat

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 120 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.