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Catching a Falling Financial Knife

EUR-USD Could Be Forming A Major Turning Point For The Year

Currencies / Euro Sep 03, 2013 - 06:30 AM GMT

By: Gregor_Horvat

Currencies EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds.


Ideally market is now in the middle of an impulsive wave 3, and broken support channel line (blue circled zone on 4h chart) is important evidence for this count, because this breakout usually causes an acceleration that makes wave three the longest and sharpest wave. Downside projections for wave 3 are at 1.3130 and 1.3040.

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

On a daily chart we can see that EURUSD has been in uptrend mode almost all summer from 1.2750, but recovery has a corrective look. With that said, we think that move is complex correction, probably a flat and that larger trend will continue lower, especially if we consider a five wave decline from 1.3700 at the start of the year. Keep in mind that impulses show direction of a larger trend, which in our case it means down. If we are correct then latest bullish leg represents wave C) of a three wave pull-back that is already showing some evidences of a top at 1.3450. We however still need a larger impulsive weakness towards 1.3000 to confirm the end point of wave (2). If pair can do that, then EURUSD will be ready for a sharp fall in the rest of the year, probably to 1.2500 if not lower.

EURUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

On a weekly chart we are also tracking a huge head and shoulder pattern where right shoulder could already be finished, so weakness is expected towards the neckline.

EURUSD Weekly Head & Shoulder Pattern

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try our 7 Days Free Trial Here

Ew-forecast.com is providing advanced technical analysis for the financial markets (Forex, Gold, Oil & S&P) with method called Elliott Wave Principle. We help traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our view and bias as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power.

Gregor is based in Slovenia and has been in Forex market since 2003. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets; from candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful to traders.

He was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His featured articles have been published in: Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu. He mostly focuses on currencies, gold, oil, and some major US indices.

© 2013 Copyright Gregor Horvat - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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Catching a Falling Financial Knife