Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - GoldCore
2.Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Why British Muslims Are Leaving Elysium Paradise for Syrian Hell - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - Zeal_LLC
6.European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - Michael_Noonan
8.Gold and Silver Price Headed for Breakdown - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
9.Greece Crisis OXI - Raul_I_Meijer
10.Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - Doug_Wakefield
Last 5 days
The Most Pressing Reason Yet You Want to Avoid Investing in Retail Stocks - 4th July 15
Fed’s Full Normalization and the Stock Market - 3rd July 15
The U.S. Dollar's 2014-2015 Rally: Wave 3 in Action - 3rd July 15
Stock Market Where are we? And where are we Going? - 3rd July 15
Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Key to China’s Prospects - 3rd July 15
How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil - 3rd July 15
China's Stock Market Rollercoaster Ride Continues - 3rd July 15
Gold Stocks Cheap to Buy but Not for Long - 3rd July 15
Capital Controls and a Bank Holiday in Greece… Here’s How You Can Profit - 3rd July 15
Greece's Varoufakis: I will Resign if there's a 'Yes' Vote - 2nd July 15
The Student Loan Bubble: Gambling with America’s Future - 2nd July 15
Inflation Is Lurking, but This Asset Can Protect You - 2nd July 15
Three Total Wealth Stock Investor Tactics You’ll Need Because Greece Isn’t Over - 2nd July 15
Why This $5.6 Trillion Investor Profit Boom Is Set To Take Off - 2nd July 15
Greek Debt Crisis: "Too late to prepare now" - Video - 2nd July 15
Guaranteed US Dollar Death Dynamics - 2nd July 15
The Greek Stress Test & The Reality Of Incremental Changes - 2nd July 15
Forget Drachmas Greece Syriza Government Could Instruct Central Bank to Print Euros! - 2nd July 15
Greece Debt Crisis Trigger for Stock Market Crash or Bull Rally? Video - 1st July 15
Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low - 1st July 15
SPX Stock Market Retracement May be Over - 1st July 15
Silver Tunnel Vision 'Experts' - 1st July 15
Gold And Silver - Monthly, Quarterly Ending Analysis - 1st July 15
Europe’s Controlled Demolition - 1st July 15
The End of Dow 18,000; Bailouts No Longer Extended  - 1st July 15
Athens Mayor: Greek Government Should Resign - 1st July 15
China Stocks - This Is What a Bubble Looks Like - 30th June 15
Stocks Plunge on Greece Euro-Zone Financial Armageddon Blackmail - 30th June 15
Greece Crisis Shows Importance of Gold as Europeans Buy Coins and Bars - 30th June 15
Stock Investors Express Route to Profits in the Healthcare Sector - 30th June 15
Beyond the Greek Impasse - 30th June 15
Gold GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending - 30th June 15
Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold - 30th June 15
Marc Faber - Greece is Basically Bankrupt - 30th June 15
Greece - Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm - 29th June 15
Grexit?, BIS Warning, Chinese Market Crash & Systemic Risk Shake the Global Economy - 29th June 15
The New "Sharing Economy" May Not Be the Profit Bonanza Everyone's Expecting - 29th June 15
Gold and Silver Greece and Short Positions - 29th June 15
Volatility and Sleep-Walking Markets - 29th June 15
Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - 29th June 15
Stock Market More Decline Ahead? - 29th June 15
China Stock Market Crackup - The Final Trap Looms... - 29th June 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

China Stocks - Where are they going?

Iran Managing U.S. Military Action in Syria

Politics / Middle East Sep 05, 2013 - 04:00 PM GMT

By: STRATFOR

Politics

Conventional wisdom says that a weakened Syria would undermine Iran's regional influence, but a U.S. military intervention in the country could actually benefit Tehran. The government there has devised a sophisticated strategy for responding to a U.S. attack. Of course, Tehran would activate its militant proxies in the region, including Hezbollah, in the event that the United States launches an attack, but it would also exploit Washington's visceral opposition to Sunni jihadist and Islamist groups to gain concessions elsewhere.


Analysis

Iran already has engaged diplomatically with many of those involved in the Syrian conflict. Over the past weekend, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the foreign affairs and national security head for the Iranian parliament, led a delegation to Damascus, presumably to discuss the potential U.S. attack. Earlier on Aug. 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the phone. Their conversation followed U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman's visit to Tehran, where he and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif likewise discussed Syria. Even the Omani sultan paid a rare visit to Iran, reportedly carrying with him positive messages from the Obama administration for Iran's new government.

Notably, the rhetoric from Tehran -- particularly from its military leadership -- has been relatively tame. Typically the government antagonizes Washington when U.S.-Iranian tensions heat up, and indeed the Syria situation has aggravated tensions. Syria is a critical Iranian ally, and the survival of the al Assad regime is a national security interest for Tehran. Iran cannot afford to directly retaliate against the United States, but it is widely expected to retaliate indirectly through militant proxies.

Skillful Maneuvers

Iran's strategy involves more than just activating these proxy groups. It entails the kind of skillful maneuvering it displayed as the United States sought regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. Tehran cooperated with Washington, and it benefited greatly from the downfall of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein accordingly. The Iranian strategists who helped devise those approaches are once again in power. Zarif, for example, was Tehran's point of contact with the George W. Bush administration in the early days after 9/11.

However, the Syria situation differs from those of Afghanistan and Iraq. This time it is Washington's aversion to regime change that Tehran is trying to exploit. In fact, the only real reason the United States would want to replace al Assad is to curb Iran's regional influence, which grew considerably after Saddam's ouster. But Washington does not want to supplant al Assad only to see Damascus come under al Qaeda's control. This partly explains why Hossein Mousavian, a close associate of Rouhani, wrote an op-ed Aug. 29 that said regime change in Kabul is "a blueprint for new collaboration" between Washington and Tehran. Mousavian called for U.S.-Iranian cooperation to extend beyond Syria to better manage the crisis-ridden region.

Syria and Iran

While the potential exists for U.S.-Iranian cooperation on Syria, U.S. military action undoubtedly would weaken the country. This carries serious risks for Iranian interests. An unfriendly Syria could cut Tehran off from Hezbollah, its pre-eminent non-state Arab ally, and jeopardize the position of its Iraqi allies.

However, limited airstrikes on Syria that do not undermine the al Assad regime could actually work in Iran's favor. Such airstrikes could divide the rebellion between factions that oppose military intervention and those that favor it. Through their Syrian, Lebanese and Iraqi allies, the Iranians would then be able to better manage the rebellion, which includes radical Islamist elements.

Because these elements have been gaining more territory, the United States may need Iranian cooperation in forging a new Syrian polity. Washington is currently preparing to speak directly to Tehran over the controversial Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian government has already linked these two issues, and it believes it could use Syria to its advantage as it negotiates the nuclear problem.

Welcoming Disruption

Iran cannot rule out the possibility that even limited U.S. action will weaken the regime. Nor can it conclude that Washington does not intend to conduct a more extensive, less symbolic air campaign against al Assad. But it can, however, prepare for either outcome. Strategists in Tehran know that the Americans have air superiority, but they know Iran has the advantage on the ground in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

Iran is thus positioned to foment an insurgency. (And the U.S. invasion of Iraq enhanced Iran's experience in fomenting insurgencies.) Any insurgency would worsen sectarian tensions in Syria and throughout the region, in turn further radicalizing Sunni militias. Jihadists gaining ground would force the United States to work with Tehran to contain Sunni radicalism.

In the unlikely scenario that the United States becomes embroiled in another major war, extricating itself from that war would necessarily require Iran's cooperation. But what really gives Iran leverage is the fact that since 9/11, jihadists and Islamist groups have had the opportunity to gain power when Arab regimes collapse.

Unlike Syria's Arab neighbors, which want stability in the region, Iran welcomes disruption. It is reasonably secure internally, and it knows its spheres of influence may weaken but ultimately will not dissolve. Strategists also believe that having lived under sanctions for decades, Iran has grown accustomed to suffering. So while chaos in Syria would threaten inherently weak Arab states, it would not affect Iran quite as much. Tehran could then exploit Arab chaos to its advantage.

In light of these risks, it is unlikely that the United States would deliberately engage in a large-scale military intervention in Syria. But Iran can never be too sure about U.S. intentions, and it has to account for the unintended consequences of even minimal military action. It is for this reason that Tehran has planned for multiple contingencies.

A lot can go wrong when plans are executed, especially when the situation is as fluid as it is in Syria. For Iran, this fluidity offers some risks, but it also offers some opportunities. The commonly held belief that a post-al Assad Syria invariably would be bad for Iran is not a guarantee.

"Iran: Managing U.S. Military Action in Syria is republished with permission of Stratfor."

This analysis was just a fraction of what our Members enjoy, Click Here to start your Free Membership Trial Today! "This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR"

© Copyright 2013 Stratfor. All rights reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis.

STRATFOR Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History