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Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Sep 10, 2013 - 12:40 PM GMT

By: Marc_Horn


On the 3rd December 2012 MWA confirmed the long term bull market. How the DAX on 3 December at 11:24 confirmed a long term bull market.

Is this bull set to continue? There is a lot of conflicting views currently about how the world is coming to an end - hyperinflation, sovereign debt crisis, unemployment, war, US government NSA spying scandals, G20 global tax hunt, oh and I must not forget Al Qaeda.

So starting with MAP Wave Analysis what clues do we have?

We are approaching strong resistance as we approach the QMLU as shown below;

Bull Q resistance.png

Quarterly support is QMFMLL as shown below;

Bull Q Support.png

To be able to see if we are going there now we need to look for completed wave structures on the smaller fractal wave scale. So going down one fractal wave scale to the monthly pivot scale we have the following resistance;

Bull M resistance.png

Support is the M012MLL;

Bull M Support.png

We can also see that despite all the QE by brain dead Western governments that will do anything to stay in power EXCEPT the right thing has not even been able to propel the markets above the M012ML!!! This equates to the law of diminishing returns - QE1 managed to get us to the QML, however everything since mid 2011 has been getting less effective - in simple English - you can bull@#$T most of the people most of the time, some of the people some of the time, but not all the people all of the time!

Capitalism and free markets are about letting non productive capital being replaced by productive capital - innovation driven by want of success - to generate productive wealth, rather than subsidizing old out of date crony capitalism!

But that is not how you get re-elected - you need to make empty promises to buy votes and be able to keep the elite ruling class in power by controlling the press and pricing the population out of quality education!

So how many of the people still believe the bull our Western governments put out through their  propaganda machines - oops I mean the investigative free press???? To answer that we need to go down further fractal wave scales so looking on the weekly pivot scale resistance is as previously shown by the Quarterly MLU and the Monthly ML above.

On the previous chart look at the M012 ML - prices bounced off it, then managed to go through twice and on the fourth attempt have failed to get through! A fourth failure has an extremely high probability that prices will not make it through and W3 will not be made at the MLU which is typically expected. The fact that prices have remained in the bottom half of the M012 fork is a further indication of low momentum!

Below we can see the current Weekly fractal wave scale channel with WMF012 in which pivot W3 should fall;

Bull WMF.png

Prices bounced off the ML and have bounced off the ML after making a new high - making this a valid possible top for W3 having met the MAP wave criteria. However confirmation is a weekly close below the MLL so combining the information we have so far - we have not yet tested the QMLU (often this would be with a pivot two fractal wave scales down, followed by one wave scale down - so that could be W3 followed by M3), the monthly  resistance has not been tested 4 times and WMF012 MLL was penetrated followed by supporting and now again supporting lows it is highly probable that we will get 2 more highs before we have failure on the 4th attempt.

First prices need to give us an indication by breaking out of no man’s land – shown by the orange triangle below with the four most likely wave intersections for W3 and the projections for W4 before the bull continues to make M3, and confirm what wave scale the recent high was. Either way it looks likely we should have new high by the end of October followed by  at least a drop off some 9% to 15% depending on the recent tops wave scale!Bull No Mans Land.png

So looks like the government propaganda still has a ways to go yet! Slowly people are waking up that socialism does not work! Our Marxist socialist Western governments are rapidly approaching a crisis point where no matter how much they lie - who still believes that we need to give up our freedoms in the name of terrorism - Assange's courage to stand up for the freedom of speech and Manning and Snowden's exposure of the illegal activities of the US government deserve Noble Peace prizes for having the courage and standing up for the rule of law, unlike the war mongering Obama where if the Noble Prize committee wants to get back some lost credibility would strip him of his peace prize! The ICC should prosecute him for knowingly targeting and killing innocent people with every drone strike he signs off on! "There are estimates as high as 98% of drone strike casualties being civilians (50 for every one "suspected terrorist"). The Bureau of Investigative Journalism issued a report detailing how the CIA is deliberately targeting those who show up after the sight of an attack, rescuers, and mourners at funerals as a part of a "double-tap" strategy eerily reminiscient of methods used by terrorist groups like Hamas."

What the US and its Western allies are doing puts the Stazi to shame - they were mere amateurs!

Looks like for now there will not be an immediate unilateral attack on Syria – that is more likely after the end of October- a quick look at the sides here – Qatar a potential competitor to Russia for European gas with Saudi want to put in a pipeline through Turkey backed by bum chums the US and on the other side Russia and its buddies! I am sure this has nothing to do with it – if we evaluate the credibility that in the West we act on humanitarian grounds…. as opposed to what a central banker told me years ago…. FOLLOW THE MONEY!!! say no more!

However as stagflation worsens peoples quality of life more and more governments will become war mongering as there is nothing like a bit of nationalism to get people behind you to distract them from their troubles and the inevitable collapse of the Western style Marxism, as happened in the East, when they too run out of other people's money!  It looks like war will wait for next year to end pivot M3 and take us down to the Q support shown previously for M4.

And if you think they don't know this why else do you think the NSA collects everything - not because of a few terrorists as their propaganda machines (oops - free investigative press) tells you, but so that they can trace down anyone with money - oh and now following the G20 meeting they are all going to share information in addition to all the back door crony schemes they use to protect outdated and non innovative companies like microsoft with windows 8 new gateway start screen so that they can download whatever they want form your computer to help them spy on everyone. Add to that the recent encryption revelations! All previous hardware you could put whatever version of windows on but buy a new computer with windows 8 and you need to find someone that can hack the bios to be able to use anything but windows 8 - funny how they don't tell you this when you buy a new computer????

Already many countries have banned cash sales of gold and put heavy restrictions on ownership, including reporting on the movement by miners as well as wholesalers and retailers to stop hiding cash in easily transportable forms. We have not seen the lows yet, but when the time is right gold will once again shine!

This is not what democracy or capitalism are about! Looking at history we will get forced loans - oops I mean war loans - where the government will take your money to retain power for as long as they can by giving you even more empty promises - ask the Cypriots! Then when the little man has nothing left either they will exterminate dissidents as they run out of space to lock them up or be overthrown through revolution!

MAP Wave Analysis, unlike Elliot Wave and Andrews Pitchforks are a systematic methodical rule based approach, details of which can be found either on my blog or here on The Market Oracle and data is archived and updated in a format that is traceable as shown in this SPX update, so that the system can be improved and used as a learning model. Additionally investors can evaluate its effectiveness when making investment decisions.

Click here to follow your duty of Use and copyright is described therein.:

Probabilities are derived from the MAP Analysis methodology described therein,

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For more information of how I do what I do . Comments and discussions very welcome! The statements, opinions and analyses presented in this site are provided as educational and general information only. Opinions, estimates, buy and sell signals, and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this site is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment.

© 2013 Copyright Marc Horn - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


02 Dec 13, 11:16
Christmas Rally?

There should again be a nice Christmas Rally this year, but it will be choppy with weekly pivot 3 highs into early next year by end of Q1.

This will be followed by a retest of current levels (W4)before the next leg of this bull market confirmed by MAP Wave Analysis on the 3rd December 2012!

Interim targets for W3;

DOW 16500

SPX 2000


12 Dec 13, 21:05
MWA Christmas Rally Targets

Todays low gives MAP Wave Analysis updated Christmas Rally

Targets for the 26 December, and for DOW and SPX see projections at;

Merry Christmas to you all!

20 Dec 13, 16:34
Happy Santa Rally - MWA

So hope you all enjoying Santa Rally ... but it aint over yet.

This wave from last / this weeks lows depending on the index could be over as soon as year end, but will be over by end of January completing M3.

CAUTION the next high when this is over is going to be followed by a 17 to 25% correction!

Corrections must either time or price parameter - If 2011 was complex this will be sharp short and sweet, So a pretty quick 20-25%, if the 2011 correction was simple a protracted and not so deep! ideal low Aug / Sep 2014 followed by bubble top into Q3 2015!

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate.


25 Jun 14, 18:32
Bull Market getting volatile - MWA

Well after nearly a year of following the channel shown in this report The US indices are topping with little upside left for pivot M3 – that is the end of the rise from the 2009 bottom. This is showing up for the high next quarter so just a heads up of what I am expecting between now and then on the SPX. The Russel hit its QMLU, and the DOW and SPX are nearly there!

After a harsh rapid June 2011 / October 2011 size correction I expect the markets to double as capital flows into US markets as confidence is eroded in Europe, Japan and UK setting off the mother of all bull markets before it all comes tumbling down as contagion of the sovereign debt crisis kicks in with rising global unrest when finally hopefully our current corrupt old boys crony marxist systems collapses and we can move into the 21st century and see new banks for starter - Just imagine 10 year from now - GBank, FBBank - they got the customer base!

For ST chart see


08 Jul 14, 19:24
Enjoying the volatility? MWA

A couple of weeks ago I pointed out to expect more volatility and are we getting it! This is typical in topping processes, but get ready for new highs over the next month!

22 Jul 14, 17:11
DOW and SPX Deliver Projected Highs

From my previous comments both the DOW and the SPX have delivered new all time high projected by MAP Wave Analysis on the 8th July comment above.

Expect increased volatility (not VIX!) as new highs are made over the next months where we should hit W3 by the end of Summer (top of 2012 lows) and new highs possible as early as Christmas!

25 Aug 14, 17:14
Expected SPX trading range

SPX is on its first test of QMLU.

It is going to take some energy before it breaks out.

So expect chop between 2030 and 1900 until it break to new highs later in the year. Welcome to Christmas Rally 2014!


18 Sep 14, 19:35
Get Ready for Break out - MWA

Markets are setting up for a breakout.

We should yet again have a rally into Christmas with a correction in the New Year.

A break out is when waves extend beyond the MLU and will produce at least a half amplitude extension.

To understand what is happening read

06 Dec 2012 - How German DAX on 3 Dec Confirmed a long term bull market– MAP WAVE Analysis

Until people understand that all the QE in the world has NOT produced inflation and dig their heads out of the sand, they will loose the shirts on their back - this is about capital flows, recently highlighted by the drop in sterling and the rise in the dollar as some 200bn pounds moved across the Atlantic in the lead up to to the Scottish Independence vote, and once you stop believing the inflation nonsense you will never understand what is going on in the markets!


21 Oct 14, 20:26
MWA Bull Market to continue

SPX updated.

Christmas rally has begun!

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