Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 10th July 19
Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season - 10th July 19
Can Gold Recover from Friday’s Strong Payrolls Hit? - 10th July 19
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Has Come True - 10th July 19
LIMITLESS - Improving Cognitive Function and Fighting Brain Ageing Right Now! - 10th July 19
US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher - 10th July 19
Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis - 10th July 19
Stock Market SPX 3000 Dream is Pushed Away: Pullback of 5-10% is Coming - 10th July 19
July 2019 GBPUSD Market Update and Outlook - 10th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold and Silver Prices — Mapping Short Term Volatility

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Sep 20, 2013 - 05:35 PM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Commodities

After years of paying attention to the price action and not the mainstream market commentary. — Thanks in large part to Ted Butler and GATA — here are some of the dominate forces that currently seem to be determining price movements in the precious metals:


Downside Probability

Jobs data comes out every few weeks. This almost always puts downside pressure on the market, with about a 90% probability. Also, presidential press conferences tend to have a 70% downside probability.  The powers that suppress the precious metals prices cannot have metals surging while the president speaks.

The Fed’s FOMC meetings and the following minutes have greater than a 90 percent downside probability, unless a surprise QE announcement is made. The surprise has been effectively quelled by taper signaling and the summers versus Yellen issue.

The beat of war drums is another factor. Interestingly, the closer that the country gets toward war or crisis, the more likely precious metals are to head counter-intuitively lower.

Options expiration dates are also notable, as well as the times immediately before or after they occur. Rarely do precious metals options expire for the benefit of the buyers.

Whenever the price of gold is strong, but the price of silver is weak the day before, this is another pending downside signal.

The performance of the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index or HUI Index (an index of the stocks of companies engaged in gold mining) also seems to be influential. Gold shares may lead the way up or down. If PM shares are weak on an up day for the precious metals, the next day’s follow through is rare, and the subsequent price action is often downward.

Daily Gold Price Movements

The downside for assets like silver and gold may be unlimited, but true upside potential of these assets is rarely demonstrated. The upside is rarely more than 2%, and often reverses lower on the nose or just below that percentage gain. (The gain and intraday moves on Wednesday, September 18th, 2013 were of the largest ever).

In sideways rather than trending markets, the upside it typically limited to only 1%. Also, intraday upside reversals seem extremely rare.

Furthermore, the phenomenon of “overnight dumping” is almost always synonymous with New York selling pressure. This can occur in a bull market unless recent support levels were already cleared out in a technically oversold period.

The Technical are Secondary

Resistance levels seem to be the most reliable technical factors, and everything else seems not to matter so much.

The most closely watched medium term moving averages include the 20 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 day. Also technical traders watch the RSI indicator for overbought versus oversold indicators and divergence in extreme territory. This is not necessarily a strong signal for the precious metals due to the underlying price manipulation.

With respect to how chart formations impact the precious metals market, the longer term price patterns seem to be the most useful in terms of their predictive value.

Market Sentiment

The worse the media controlled current sentiment seems to be in the precious metals market, the better the medium term outcome for prices tends to become.

The COT is the main sentiment indicator and seems to help determine market direction, although it does not seem to be a predictor in and of itself.

When all swaps are removed, if the big bullion banks still control at least 5-10 percent of the short side, then the PM market is always about to have an economically significant sell off.

Furthermore, when hedge funds start to enter the PM market on the long side as they begin following an upwards trend, the fruit is ripe for the picking and a sharp sell off soon commences.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line about all this is that by definition these are not actual markets where prices are fairly discovered by supply and demand factors. Instead, they are profit centers which the bullion banks regularly milk for their own benefit and profit.

The futures markets also act as displays or window dressing for a much larger underlying fiat currency crisis that remains hidden just beneath the surface.

How long this manipulative charade can go on is up to the thinnest sentiment in existence — confidence underpinned by human emotion.

For more articles like this, and/or for a breath of fresh silver market reality amidst the stench of denial and technically meaningless short term price obsessed madness, check out http://www.silver-coin-investor.com

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com

    Copyright © 2013 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dr. Jeff Lewis Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules