Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

The Outlook for Gold Minder Mergers and Acquisitions

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013 Oct 31, 2013 - 03:19 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

It's no secret that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the mining sector is in the dumps. According to PWC, deal volume in the first half of 2013 declined 31% as compared to the same period last year. Deal value declined 74%. Excluding Glencore's $54 billion acquisition of Xstrata in 2012, deal value is still down 21%. A recent Bloomberg article noted that the volume of acquisitions valued at less than $1 billion is at an eight-year low while the volume of deals in Q3 was the lowest since Q4 of 2004. However, some deals are taking place and in order for speculators and investors to capitalize, they will need to keep a discerning eye, just like potential suitors.


The cause of the current malaise in M&A activity is fairly simple and two fold. First, the major companies who drive M&A activity made some bad decisions and costly acquisitions in previous years. Second, the deep and extended cyclical bear market has essentially forced the majors, in terms of acquisitions, to the sidelines. The majors are looking to get leaner and meaner and until that and a recovery in the market occur, they will remain on the sidelines.

Despite difficult conditions, some companies have remained active.

Days ago B2Gold (BTG, BTO.to) announced the friendly acquisition of Volta Resources (VTR.v) for $63 million. This will be B2's second acquisition in the last 12 months. In the first quarter of this year the company closed its acquisition of CGA Mining, which cost the company $1.1B.

Alamos Gold (AGI, AGI.to), like B2Gold has been quite active. Alamos recently closed its acquisition of Esperanza Resources for $69.4 million which was announced in the summer. Alamos also closed a smaller acquisition of Orsa Ventures for $3.5 million.

Also, New Gold (NGD, NGD.to) on May 31 agreed to acquire Rainy River Resources for $355 million.

These recent deals highlight one observation I've heard from several exploration companies. At present, its the mid-tier type companies that will lead the M&A charge. These are companies that are generating healthy cash flow and earnings at these prices and have the working capital to push forward. Their share prices are not in the toilet like those of the majors and many juniors. Meanwhile, majors will be on the sideline at least until industry sentiment improves. That is what one exploration company told me.

So when will sentiment improve?

GDX and GDXJ continue to be trapped in a long bottoming process. This process began in the spring and is in its seventh month. While a bottom in terms of price is likely in, both GDX and GDXJ can stay trapped in this process for several more months and perhaps longer. My view is sentiment will not improve until after GDX and GDXJ breakout above the red lines.

GDX versus GDXJ Weekly Chart

M&A activity will remain quite low well into 2014 for several reasons. The majors for the most part are in no position to take on more risk. Even if we get a rip-roaring recovery in 2014, the majors will need more time to get themselves in a better position to make acquisitions. In addition, a handful of mid-tiers have already been fairly active. Thus, don't expect a huge increase in acquisitions for at least several quarters.

Nevertheless, more than a handful of exploration and development companies appear to have bottomed and are showing relative strength against the sector. These are companies that have value and potential even amid a struggling market.

To find such companies, start your research by looking for junior companies which are strong enough to stand their own. Look for companies with cash, experienced management teams and projects in favorable jurisdictions. In addition, ownership of the stock by a major or larger company is the type of sponsorship we love to see. Then you have to do due diligence on the projects which is obviously more difficult. Acquirers are essentially looking for projects that are not too costly to startup and will have good margins at current prices.

If you'd be interested in professional guidance in this endeavor, then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2013 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules