Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 10th July 19
Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season - 10th July 19
Can Gold Recover from Friday’s Strong Payrolls Hit? - 10th July 19
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Has Come True - 10th July 19
LIMITLESS - Improving Cognitive Function and Fighting Brain Ageing Right Now! - 10th July 19
US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher - 10th July 19
Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis - 10th July 19
Stock Market SPX 3000 Dream is Pushed Away: Pullback of 5-10% is Coming - 10th July 19
July 2019 GBPUSD Market Update and Outlook - 10th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Stocks Bull Market Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Nov 09, 2013 - 03:46 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

After a rally Monday, pullback Tuesday, the market rallied back to the SPX 1775 all time high Thursday morning. Then the market had its biggest one day reversal in quite a while hitting SPX 1746 just before the close. Friday, however, the market completely reversed recovering all of Thursday’s loss ending the week at SPX 1771. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%, and the DJ World index lost 0.4%. On the economic front nearly all the reports were positive. On the uptick: factory orders, leading indicators, ISM services, Q3 GDP, consumer credit, nonfarm payrolls, personal income/spending, PCE prices, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims declined. On the downtick: consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate rose. Next week we get reports Industrial production, the twin deficits and the NY FED.


LONG TERM: bull market continues

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] consisting of five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary I divided into five Major waves and so has Primary III. A couple of times over the past two months it appeared that Primary III had ended. The market is in Major wave 5, the last wave of Primary III, and fifth waves have been weak in this bull market. We have been erring on the side of caution. But this bull market has been resilient and ended the week only four points from its all time high.

We had been projecting all along a bull market high around SPX 1780 by early 2014. The market entered that range in late October, retested it Thursday, and now appears to be heading back into that range. This price activity, obviously, is months ahead of schedule. With the SPX and DOW counts out of sync, as they have been since August, making a new projection, at this time, would only be guess work. When these two indices re-sync, which should be during Primary IV, we will get a better idea of where this bull market should end in price.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We have been tracking this uptrend, Major wave 5 from the August low at SPX 1627, as five Intermediate waves. At first we thought they could form an ending diagonal triangle so we labeled the rallies/declines with both numbers and letters. This week Int. wave iv appears to have bottomed at SPX 1746, not overlapping Int. wave i at SPX 1730, and the diagonal triangle is now off the table. This uptrend appears to have completed four Int. waves SPX: 1730-1647-1775-1746, with the fifth wave underway.

Normally we would expect this fifth wave to have some Fibonacci relationship to either waves 1, 3 or both. However, the SPX has had a few fifth waves failures over the past year or so. So Friday’s close at SPX 1771 could have been it. If it isn’t, and the SPX clears the OEW 1779 pivot range, then the next resistance would be at SPX 1810 and SPX 1826-1828. The first two numbers are 0.618 relationships to Intermediate waves i and iii, with the last number a Fibonacci relationship for Major waves of the entire Primary III. Medium term support is at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at the 1779 and 1828 pivots.

SHORT TERM

We counted five Minor waves up from SPX 1627-1730 for Int. wave i. After a steep and complex pullback for Int. ii to SPX 1646. We then counted another five Minor waves up to SPX 1775 for Int. wave iii. Intermediate wave iv was much shorter in time and price, as has been the case for fourth waves during this bull market. But it did drop into the upper end of the price range we expected and then the market rallied strongly on Friday. Intermediate wave v appeared clearly underway on Friday.

Short term support is at SPX 1746 and 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1810. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive again with the reversal level at SPX 1762. Best to your trading the recent stop and go action!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week losing 0.8%. China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore and S. Korea are all in confirmed downtrends.

The European markets were mostly lower as well, but only lost 0.4%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week losing 1.9%. Brazil is in a confirmed downtrend.

The DJ World index is still uptrending but lost 0.4% on the week. Of the 20 world indices we track 35% are in confirmed downtrends.

COMMODITIES

Bonds have not confirmed a downtrend yet, losing 0.4% on the week, but 10YR rates have confirmed an uptrend.

Crude is still downtrending and lost 0.3% on the week.

Gold may be in an unconfirmed uptrend, but it lost 2.0% on the week.

The USD is uptrending again gaining 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: Export/Import prices and the Budget deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit. Friday: the NY FED, Industrial production and Wholesale inventories. Also on Thursday: FED vice chair Yellen testifies before the Senate in a confirmation hearing. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2013 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules