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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Pop-n-Drop Day

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Dec 06, 2013 - 03:09 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

The action this morning may be clarifying the Elliott Wave structure. It also sets up the SPX for a Minute Wave [c] pop to 1797.64 – 1800.00.

The Monthly Employment Situation Report is bringing Tape talk back…big time.


ZeroHedge reports, “Last month, the expected NFP print was 120K, instead we got 204K. Today, the expectations was 185K, while the print, was almost an identical 203K, even as last month's was revised modestly lower to 200K. The unemployment rate dropped from 7.3%, which was also below the 7.2% expected, to only 7.0%. The unemployment rate was derived from a drop in the number of unemployed from 11.3K to 10.9K, while the labor force rose from 153.8K to 155.3K, which also led to a modest bounce in the labor force participation rate which rose from a 35 year low of 62.8% to 63.0%.”

You can see how hollow these statistics are by looking at the CES Birth/Death Model, which add 421,000 “hypothetical “ jobs to the overall number. Real employment numbers may have declined in November, which suggests a disastrous Holiday season for retailers.

Meanwhile, TNX is challenging its August high at 29.84. It appears to have hit its upper trendline and completed a new impulsive wave, so it may come back to find support at its Head & Shoulders neckline at 27.80.

VIX was clobbered this morning, but it appears that it is now finished with its correction and may recover most or all of its losses by day’s end.

The US Dollar futures are basing at 80.23 in a double zig zag correction and may also go higher today.

Gold had some wild swings this morning and the futures are currently at 1243.00. That is still well below the 50-day moving average at 1252.29, which it may challenge one more time before a very large decline.

All in all, the decline in stocks and commodities (with the possible exception of crude) may resume today. The odds of an outright breakdown down today are slim, but this weekend is a double pivot weekend, so the surprise on Monday may be very big.

Regards,

Tony

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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

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