Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Gold Cycle Bottom Coming Due

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 09, 2013 - 01:29 PM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Commodities

For the near-term action in the gold market, there are several key cycles that are coming due right now with the gold market, with both the daily weekly cycles due for a bottom of some degree. Whether that low will end up as anything meaningful remains to be seen, though at least a short-term bottom is expected to materialize, with the daily cycles looking for the same on or around the December 6th date. Take a look at the chart below:


Daily Gold Chart

The chart above shows the daily cycle turning point forecast (in aqua), which is a combination of the dominant cycles on the daily chart of the price of gold. The next 'turn' from this model is shown for the December 6-9 timeframe - which we are now obviously into. Having said that, daily low turns themselves are not that meaningful - if the larger trend is pointing to the downside!

However, in addition to a daily cycle bottom that is due anywhere in here (again, there is a plus or minus involved), the weekly chart of gold is shows a bottom for the week of December 6th, which is plus or minus a week in either direction. That chart is shown below:

Weekly Gold Chart

As shown above, the weekly (dominant) cycle is also coming due for a low anywhere in the current timeframe. On the bearish side to this, momentum is pointing to the downside for the weekly chart, though the same is starting to turn up on the daily. To me, the inference is a short-term rally, but one that is followed by lower lows on the next daily/weekly cycle downward phase.

Overall, the dominant cycles on the daily chart are in the 8-12 (trading) day range, 30-34 days, 70-78 days. The low that is due in the current timeframe (from the combination forecast models note above) should come as the result of the 30-34 day wave, which last bottomed back on 10/15/13 - and thus is 35-36 trading days along from the same (chart, below).

Gold Chart

With the above said and noted, I take a detailed look at how each of the up and downward phases have played out in the past history of the cycles that I track, in order to get some idea of what to expect in the near-future. With that, in taking a look at a normal statistical upward phase for this 30-34 day component, the average rally has been around 10% from trough-to-peak. However, due to the larger bearish trend, I am more interested in what the greater-majority have done. With that, a good chunk of these have seen rallies of at least 4.4% before topping, which gives us at least an initial indication of how the coming rally with this component will end up playing out.

So far, the lowest low for the current downward phase has been registered on 12/6/13, around the 1210 level for gold. Whether or not this figure will mark the bottom for this cycle is too early to say, though - should that end up as the case - a normal upward phase would be looking for a push up to the 1264-1332 area in the coming days/weeks.

In terms of time with the above, normal rallies with this 30-34 day wave have been around the 11-18 trading day mark, and thus a low anywhere in the current timeframe would suggest the next upward phase could push into the latter part of December.

Gold 72-Day Cycle Chart

As for the other cycles, the larger 70-78 day wave (chart, above) is still pointing south at the present time - where it also last bottomed back on 10/15/13. In other words, even though a firm trading rally is due, the overall trend is still deemed to be point lower, at least until proven otherwise.

Going further, there is an even-larger 154 day cycle (chart, below) that is dominating the action. This cycle last bottomed all the way back on 6/28/13 at the 1179.90 figure, and then topped again on 8/28/13 at a high of 1434.10. With that, this cycle is currently around 111 trading days along from that trough - and thus is also deemed to be pointing south at the present time, likely into January or February of next year.

If we take a stepped-back view, even a casual Elliottician will note that we are working on a five-wave pattern to the downside from the 1950 high (September, 2011) - with a 5th wave looking to be in progress at the present time. Take a look at the chart below for reference, where you can also see the 154 day cycle:

Gold 154-Day Cycle Chart

Interestingly, the rally off the 6/28/13 bottom to the 8/28/13 high retraced precisely 38% of the prior swing down (from the 10/5/12 high) - in other words, a near perfect Elliott wave 4. All said then, for the bigger picture we look to be in the process of completing a 5th wave to the downside, which ideally will bottom out with the next 72/154 day combination low. Once that decline is complete, we should see a hard retracement of the entire bear wave down from the 1950 peak to whatever low that ends up being registered for the move.

Summing it up, we are due for at least a short-term bottom with the 30-34 day wave; a low made here - if that plays out - would be favored to give way to strength and overall higher prices into around late-December, plus or minus. However, due to the position of the larger 72 and 154 day waves, the current assumption is that the upward phase of the 30-34 day wave will end up as a countertrend affair - meaning that it should hold at or well below the prior swing top of 1361.90 (from 10/28/13). If correct, the following 30-34 day downward phase (into January/February) should see new lows for the larger swing, then to set up a bottom with the larger 72 and 154 day cycle - with that bottom completing a perfect Elliott wave 5 pattern to the downside.

Jim Curry

Market Turns Advisory
Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
Website 1: http://cyclewave.homestead.com
Website 2: http://www.stockindextimer.com/

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of Market Turns advisory, which specializes in using cyclical analysis to time the markets. To be added to our mailing list click HERE

Copyright 2013, Jim Curry - Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions.

Jim Curry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules