Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.China Crash, Greece Collapse, Harbingers of Stock Market Apocalypse Forecast 2015? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Awaiting Outcome of Greece Crisis - Clive_Maund
3.Gold Price Peculiar 6 Month Cycles - Rambus_Chartology
4.Gold Price Just a Little Bit More - Bob_Loukas
5.8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble - EWI
6.Gold And Silver – Without Either, You Will Be Greeced - Michael_Noonan
7.Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - James_Quinn
8.China Crash, Greece Crisis Harbingers of Stocks Bear Market? Video - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold and Silver Record Shorting - Zeal_LLC
10.Markets Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide... - Clive_Maund
Last 5 days
Greece- What Happens When Economists Talk Politics - 29th July 15
The Gold - U.S. House Prices Ratio As A Valuation Indicator - 29th July 15
Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video - 28th July 15
Gold & Silver Money Has Devolved Into Debt and Plastic - 28th July 15
Buy and "Own Gold Krugerrands" Says Money Expert Jim Grant, Very Bullish on Gold - 28th July 15
How to Protect Yourself from China's Crashing Stock Market - 28th July 15
Quantum Geopolitics - 28th July 15
Gold Mining Stocks to Weather the Storm - 28th July 15
Stock Market Bulls Beware! - 28th July 15
Will Chinese Stock Market Crash Affect the US? - 27th July 15
Crude Oil Price Under $48! - 27th July 15
Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? - 27th July 15
How to Know When the Gold Bear Market is Over - 27th July 15
Gold Bear Market Phase III - 27th July 15
Silver Bull Hammer Buy Signal - 27th July 15
Gold Cracks Support and Plunges to New Lows - How Low Will Price Go? - 27th July 15
Commodity Markets Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact - 26th July 15
Gold Price at a Five-Year Low: Here’s What to Do - 26th July 15
Stock Market Primary III Inflection Point - 26th July 15
Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets - 25th July 15
Gold And Silver - The US Dollar Does Not Exist, Part II - 25th July 15
How Wall Street Put Apple Stock in Animal House - 25th July 15
How to Trade Markets Using the Stochastic Oscillator - Video - 24th July 15
A Bond Market Crisis Is Coming... Here's What to Do - 24th July 15
Why There's Resistance to the Iran Nuclear Deal - 24th July 15
Absurd Gold Stock Levels - 24th July 15
Gold Mining Stocks Nearing Rebound - 24th July 15
Misperceptions Create Significant Bond Market Value - 24th July 15
Commodities Distressed Investing - 24th July 15
OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Crude Oil Price - 24th July 15
USD Index Rebounds - 24th July 15
If You’re Worried About a Tech Bubble, You’re Focusing on the Wrong Thing - 24th July 15
Gold Stocks Bear Market Bottom Buying Opportunity? - Video
The Stealth War on the United States - 23rd July 15
Commodity Prices, Gold and Silver Stocks Next Leg Down - 23rd July 15
The ‘Real’ Reason the Fed Wants to Raise Interest Rates - 23rd July 15
Crude Oil Price Slump is a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Make Money, Guaranteed - 23rd July 15
Gold Price Hits a 5-Year Low: How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom - 22nd July 15
Silver and the Deflation Thesis - 22nd July 15
Gold Price Crash - Trend Forecast 2015, Gold Stocks Buying Opportunity? - 22nd July 15
The Three Reasons Behind Iran’s Resistance to the Nuclear Deal - 22nd July 15
Winning the Hunger Games - How to Choose Successful Agriculture Investments - 22nd July 15
Are Free Markets The Solution? - 22nd July 15
Gold Hammered “Unprecedented Attack” - 21st July 15
The Turkish Enigma - 21st July 15
Gold and Silver: The Final Capitulation Commences - 21st July 15
Greater Israel Setback from Iranian Nuclear Agreement - 21st July 15
U.S. Housing Market: Is the Roof About to Cave In (Again)? - 21st July 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

How to Know if the Gold bull Market Has Ended

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 11, 2013 - 12:54 PM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf

Commodities

  •  Central banks will have stopped their money printing madness.
  • The US Federal Government will have balanced its budget.
  • China will have invested 20% of its trading surplus in gold.
  • The US CPI will have peaked at a rate above 10%.
  • The public in the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe will have bought gold with their savings, including a goodly portion of their tax free savings.
  • The public in India and China will have turned from buyers to sellers.
  • Sellers of gold will have a currency available to them that offers stability.
  • Financial headlines will have featured stories of gold mining stocks that rose from pennies to a hundred dollars.  (In 1975 Lion Mines could be purchased at 0.07c a share – in 1980 the share price was $380!  Wharf Resources traded at 0.40c in 1975 – by 1980 the price had risen to $560).
  • TV screens will have featured lineups of buyers at coin shops.
  • Crude oil will have reached a record high price.
  • Silver will have outperformed gold on a percentage basis.

           “There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold.
Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots
bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and
universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence” ………….French President Charles Degaulle.

     *****Charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated.

                 
          Featured is the daily bar chart for gold bullion expressed in US dollars.  Price is breaking out from beneath five weeks of resistance.  The pattern is a bullish falling wedge.  A closing price above the blue arrow will confirm a major bottom at the $1200 level.  A subsequent breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish.  The supporting indicators are turning positive.  Our proprietary Gold Direction Indicator bottomed at 19% on December 3rd and closed at 51% on December 10th.

“Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner, by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity.”  …..Nicolaus Copernicus (quoted in 1525).

                  Here is a longer-term look at the current gold bull market, with a log scale chart.  Notice the rising channel.  The supporting indicators have turned positive, including the important Accumulation/Distribution line.

“The History of the US FED: 

  •   Create a problem.
  •   Solve the problem.
  •   Get praise for solving the problem.
  •   Make sure the solution leads to the next problem
  •   Back to #1.”  …..Dr. Gary North.

           Featured is the index that compares gold bullion to the DOW Jones Industrials.  The index is trying to bottom, and a closing price above the blue arrow will be the first sign of confirmation.  A breakout at the green arrow will convince a lot of investors to move funds from the stock market into gold.  The supporting indicators are positive.

                  Featured is the daily bar chart for gold expressed in foreign currencies.  Price is breaking out here as well, and volume was very heavy (green arrow).  The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and now they are turning positive.  A breakout at the blue arrow turns the trend bullish. 


This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial gold traders fell for the fifth consecutive week, to 21,000 compared to 28,000 the week before.  As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 6%.  This compares to 5.5% on July 2nd.  That was just before gold rose from $118t6 to $1435.

“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."  …….Frederic Bastiat.

                  Featured is GDX, the gold and silver producers ETF.  Price is breaking out from a falling wedge pattern (green box).  The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and are now turning positive.  The increase in volume is indicative of strong hands buying from weak hands.  A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm the bottom, while a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. 

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide…”              …..John Adams,  US President #2.

       This chart courtesy Goldchartsrus.com shows the massive amount of gold that is moving into China via Hong Kong. As long as this trend continues, the fundamentals for gold are positive, and the bull market lives on.

 A trillion dollars is a stack of thousand dollar bills 63 miles high.  If the stack was toppled, you could drive for an hour before you would reach the end of it.”  …..Warren Bevan. 

               Featured is the daily bar chart for silver.  Price broke out from a bullish falling wedge formation on December 9th, and confirmed the breakout the next day.  The supporting indicators are turning positive with lots of room to rise higher.  A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm a large ABC bottom, and a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. 

US Geological Society 2010 report:  “Silver will be the first element in the periodic table that would become extinct.”


This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial silver traders slipped to 12,000, compared to 16,000 the week before.  As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 9%.

“You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold." ……….. George Bernard Shaw

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at itiswell@cogeco.net , or visit his website at www.pdegraaf.com where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

© 2013 Copyright Peter Degraaf - All Rights Reserved

DISCLAIMER:Please do your own due diligence.  Investing involves taking risks.  I am not responsible for your investment decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History