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How to Know if the Gold bull Market Has Ended

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 11, 2013 - 12:54 PM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf


  •  Central banks will have stopped their money printing madness.
  • The US Federal Government will have balanced its budget.
  • China will have invested 20% of its trading surplus in gold.
  • The US CPI will have peaked at a rate above 10%.
  • The public in the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe will have bought gold with their savings, including a goodly portion of their tax free savings.
  • The public in India and China will have turned from buyers to sellers.
  • Sellers of gold will have a currency available to them that offers stability.
  • Financial headlines will have featured stories of gold mining stocks that rose from pennies to a hundred dollars.  (In 1975 Lion Mines could be purchased at 0.07c a share – in 1980 the share price was $380!  Wharf Resources traded at 0.40c in 1975 – by 1980 the price had risen to $560).
  • TV screens will have featured lineups of buyers at coin shops.
  • Crude oil will have reached a record high price.
  • Silver will have outperformed gold on a percentage basis.

           “There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold.
Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots
bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and
universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence” ………….French President Charles Degaulle.

     *****Charts courtesy unless indicated.

          Featured is the daily bar chart for gold bullion expressed in US dollars.  Price is breaking out from beneath five weeks of resistance.  The pattern is a bullish falling wedge.  A closing price above the blue arrow will confirm a major bottom at the $1200 level.  A subsequent breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish.  The supporting indicators are turning positive.  Our proprietary Gold Direction Indicator bottomed at 19% on December 3rd and closed at 51% on December 10th.

“Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner, by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity.”  …..Nicolaus Copernicus (quoted in 1525).

                  Here is a longer-term look at the current gold bull market, with a log scale chart.  Notice the rising channel.  The supporting indicators have turned positive, including the important Accumulation/Distribution line.

“The History of the US FED: 

  •   Create a problem.
  •   Solve the problem.
  •   Get praise for solving the problem.
  •   Make sure the solution leads to the next problem
  •   Back to #1.”  …..Dr. Gary North.

           Featured is the index that compares gold bullion to the DOW Jones Industrials.  The index is trying to bottom, and a closing price above the blue arrow will be the first sign of confirmation.  A breakout at the green arrow will convince a lot of investors to move funds from the stock market into gold.  The supporting indicators are positive.

                  Featured is the daily bar chart for gold expressed in foreign currencies.  Price is breaking out here as well, and volume was very heavy (green arrow).  The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and now they are turning positive.  A breakout at the blue arrow turns the trend bullish. 

This chart courtesy shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial gold traders fell for the fifth consecutive week, to 21,000 compared to 28,000 the week before.  As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 6%.  This compares to 5.5% on July 2nd.  That was just before gold rose from $118t6 to $1435.

“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."  …….Frederic Bastiat.

                  Featured is GDX, the gold and silver producers ETF.  Price is breaking out from a falling wedge pattern (green box).  The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and are now turning positive.  The increase in volume is indicative of strong hands buying from weak hands.  A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm the bottom, while a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. 

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide…”              …..John Adams,  US President #2.

       This chart courtesy shows the massive amount of gold that is moving into China via Hong Kong. As long as this trend continues, the fundamentals for gold are positive, and the bull market lives on.

 A trillion dollars is a stack of thousand dollar bills 63 miles high.  If the stack was toppled, you could drive for an hour before you would reach the end of it.”  …..Warren Bevan. 

               Featured is the daily bar chart for silver.  Price broke out from a bullish falling wedge formation on December 9th, and confirmed the breakout the next day.  The supporting indicators are turning positive with lots of room to rise higher.  A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm a large ABC bottom, and a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. 

US Geological Society 2010 report:  “Silver will be the first element in the periodic table that would become extinct.”

This chart courtesy shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial silver traders slipped to 12,000, compared to 16,000 the week before.  As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 9%.

“You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold." ……….. George Bernard Shaw

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at , or visit his website at where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

© 2013 Copyright Peter Degraaf - All Rights Reserved

DISCLAIMER:Please do your own due diligence.  Investing involves taking risks.  I am not responsible for your investment decisions.

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