Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Markets Headed Higher Into Summer

Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory Apr 17, 2008 - 08:38 AM GMT

By: David_Petch

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo far the HUI turn date of Monday April 13thish was a few days late, but appears to be on course. The XOI and USD index also are playing out according to their respective Elliott Wave patterns. Analysis below discusses what to expect in the S&P over the course of the next few months. One side note, we have implemented all charts on our site going forward to be HTML coded so that a much larger version is available at the click of a mouse.


The following article was presented for the benefit of subscribers on 08-04-15 .

Although the S&P may seem to be going to hell in a hand basket, that event is not likely to happen until around June/early July. Lower Bollinger bands are in closer proximity, suggestive a bottom has been put in place. Upper Bollinger bands are starting to curl over, suggestive further basing is required for another 5-10 trading days before the present consolidation pattern is complete. Fibonacci time extensions of various waves are shown near the lower portion of the chart, with a cluster of Fib dates occurring on May 6 th . Short-term stochastics have the %K beneath the %D, confirming another 5-10 days of market weakness potential before a bottom is put in.

Figure 1

Blue lines on the right hand side represent Fibonacci price retracements of various upward trending waves. Areas of line overlap form Fib clusters, which indicate important support/resistance levels. Moving averages are in bearish alignment (200 day MA above the 155 day MA above the 50 day MA), with the 50 day MA acting as resistance at 1351. Full stochastics have the %K above the %D with the potential for another 6-8 weeks in the present upward trend before topping out. A circle is drawn (I care not to mention how long it took me to get the positioning I wanted) to illustrate a basing pattern that has a definitive curved bottom. If the trend persists, then the %K topping out around early to mid June is highly probable.

Figure 2

The weekly semi-log chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with Fibonacci time extensions of wave a and [W].b shown at the top of the chart. There is a cluster of Fib dates occurring around the end of October 2009, which signifies the expected termination point of wave [X].b (the present corrective structure underway). Blue lines on the right hand side represent Fibonacci price retracements of the move from the 2000 top until mid 2002. Notice how the S&P has moved within Fib channels since mid 2003. Presently, the 1368 level has been serving as resistance…a move above will confirm a corrective grind higher to 1420-1440 before topping out. The upper 55 MA Bollinger band is starting to curl down, suggestive a short-term bottom is in place/still forming. Lower Bollinger bands are in close proximity, suggestive another 2-3 months are required to get enough separation between them to trigger the next decline (contraction in volatility). Full stochastics have the %K beneath the %D, with no indication that a bottom is in place on the longer-term trends. Expect the lower stochastics to have a positive divergence before the 2009 year end low occurs.

Figure 3

The mid-term Elliott Wave chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Expect the S&P to continue chopping sideways over the course of the next 2-4 weeks, before grinding above the 1368 level.

Figure 4

The long-term Elliott Wave chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with the though pattern denoted in green. The S&P is likely to form a top around 1420-1440 at some point between June and July, followed by a decline into October, a post-election US bounce, followed by a resumption to the downside that should bottom around late January 2009 between 1050-1150.

Figure 5

The volume put-call ratio of the S&P 500 Index (finally got this data back on-line). There was a recent spike high in the put call ratio, suggestive a bottom was put in place, which coincided with the %K crossing beneath the %D. The next stock market top should coincide with the %K crossing above the %D, which lies at least 6-8 weeks into the future.

Figure 6

A major portion of the work I do is technically oriented, but I am starting to write 2-3 editorials per week. For further viewing of prior work, simply click on the Archive section of this site. I update the AMEX Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10-Year US Treasury Index, S&P 500 Index as well as commentary on market-related issues and new technical analysis findings. We follow some 60 stocks, with a focus on core positions and stocks that actually make up our personal portfolio. As well, the keeper of the site, Captain Hook writes 3-4 articles per week discussing macro issues, ratio analysis of various markets and an in-depth study of put/call ratios and shorting candidates.

Have a good day.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these items.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2008 treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by treasurechests.info Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

David Petch Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules