Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - Dan_Amerman
3.China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - Graham_Summers
4.Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18 - Plunger
5.Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - Chris_Vermeulen
6.U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - Jim_Curry
7.Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - Harry_Dent
9.Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
10.The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - F_F_Wiley
Last 7 days
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How - 14th Aug 18
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - 14th Aug 18
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - 14th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 13th Aug 18
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? - 13th Aug 18
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - 13th Aug 18
New Stock Market Correction Underway - 13th Aug 18
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis - 13th Aug 18
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World - 12th Aug 18
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks - 12th Aug 18
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class - 12th Aug 18
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback - 12th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle, Seasonal Analysis and Economy - Video - 12th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 1st Dealer Oil Change Service - What to Expect - 11th Aug 18
How to Setup Webinars and Use Them to Overcome the Barriers in E-Learning - 11th Aug 18
Big US Stocks’ Q2’18 Fundamentals - 11th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - 10th Aug 18
SPX Testing Its First Support Level - 10th Aug 18
Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension? - 10th Aug 18
The Forrest Gump of All Future Democrat Election Losses - 10th Aug 18
More Uncertainty as Stocks Got Closer to January Record High - 10th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Kill Zone - 9th Aug 18
Even More Cracks in the Gold Dam - 9th Aug 18
Ignore the Stock Market “midterm election year”, Which is “supposed” to be Weak - 9th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - Video - 9th Aug 18
Tips on Maximizing Small Serviced Offices Space - 9th Aug 18
VIX’s Collapse is Bullish for VIX and the Stock Market - 9th Aug 18
Vestles Platform Offers Several Key Trading Tools - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 2 - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 1 - 8th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis - 8th Aug 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 7th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - 7th Aug 18
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Video - 7th Aug 18
Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese - 7th Aug 18
Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' - 7th Aug 18
Alex Jones Banned! Will Unapproved Opinions Be Censored Off the Internet? - 7th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline - 7th Aug 18
First Time Buyers Need to ‘boost the affordability’ of Their Move Alone  - 7th Aug 18
Long Term Care Homes as an Investment are Heating Up! - 7th Aug 18
The Exponential Inflationary Stocks Bull Market - Video - 6th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Oil Change Service Dash Warning Message - 6th Aug 18
Restructuring of Western Economic Power - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market and Economy False Narratives That are Just Wrong - 6th Aug 18
VPN – Is It Worth It? - 6th Aug 18
All You Need to Know About Umbrella Companies - 6th Aug 18
Why China Lost the Trade War Before it Even Began - SSEC Stocks Index - Video - 5th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 5th Aug 18
Iran's Rial Currency Is In A Death Spiral, Again - 5th Aug 18
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast - 5th Aug 18
Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts - 5th Aug 18
Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources - 5th Aug 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

The Stock Market Holiday Bulge – Prepare for Selling

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Dec 26, 2013 - 06:10 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stock-Markets

I would like to start by wishing you a Happy Holidays & New Year!

So far this year (2013) has been a great year for trading and my 2014 forecast looks to be as good if not even better. I do have something exciting to share with you that is going to make 2014 really amazing, but first let me talk about the stock market and what is likely to unfold in the next week or two so you can protect your investments.


As many of you know, I follow and post frequently on StockTwits.com. I like to see what traders and investors are thinking/feeling about the broad market using extreme sentiment readings as a contrarian signal for trade ideas or to protect open positions more by tightening my protective stops and locking partial profits.

Below I have posted a two charts on sentiment courtesy of StockTwits to show these extreme readings of where the US stock market is trading at. The first chart is of the symbol $STUDY and this sentiment shows us that 98% of trading material is bullish on the stock market right now. My theory is, if everyone is moving in one direction, you better be ready for them to change direction any time. The masses move like a school of fish and one they get spooked they change direction and start selling everything they just bought.

The second sentiment chart is of the SPY exchange traded fund. This mimics the SP500 index and is also a gauge for broad market sentiment. If we think back to the 80/20 rule, we know that 20% of the crowd/clients are correct while 80% tend to be incorrect. With sentiment reaching the highest level in a couple months and with the index making new highs, coupled with the holiday price bulge (holiday rally) logic says a pullback in the near term is very likely an that it could be sharp and it almost like  automated trading.

Market Sentiment – Broad Market Contrarians Indicator

sentiment

The stock market has wave like patterns that form on a monthly basis that provide us with a steady stream of trading opportunities. One of the best swing trading tools for timing these waves is through the use of this chart below provided by Barchart.com.

The chart below is self explanatory, but let me quickly explain how it works. This chart rises as more and more stocks trade above the 20 day simple moving average. And when the majority of stocks are in a strong uptrend, it’s a lot like humans all trading in the same direction (a school of fish) and the odds favour a change in direction temporarily. These waves are great intermediate trends for swing trading and typically last multiple weeks at a time. This is one of my strategies which I trade with my members at TheGoldAndOilGuy.com alert newsletter. Keep in mind, its not as easy as it looks, because there are more moving parts to this equation but you can see these extreme waves clearly in this chart.

The Holiday Bulge & Amazing Information Conclusion

With the stock market still firmly in an uptrend and firing on all cylinders short term analysis is pointing to a pause or pullback in the next week or two.  I did forecast this exact price action several weeks ago and how it could lead to the start of a major market top. If a major top does form early in 2014 then we could make some big money once the down trend starts.

Remember, stocks fall 3-7 times faster than they rise, so once we get short massive gains can be made quickly and while the masses (school of fish) are losing money, we should be on the other side watching our trading account sky rocket!

NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS!

A few days ago my new book “Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps To Win With Logic” became available to my followers and readers with an offer you would cannot refuse. If you buy my book before Jan 1st you get a Lifetime Membership to my new Monthly INNER-Investor Newsletter so you can keep your long term investment capital on the right side of the market forever.

Get the Full Details at: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com...

JOIN MY FREE ETF TRADING NEWSLETTER!

Chris Vermeulen

Please visit my website for more information. http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method.  For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets.  Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules