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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

SPX Stock Market Sell Signal Confirmed

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jan 24, 2014 - 03:05 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

My best reading on the decline so far is the Minute Wave [i] may be complete and Minute Wave [ii] of Minor Wave C] may now be underway.  Wave (c) of Minute Wave [ii] has a potential target between 1829.00 and 1833.00.  The Minute Wave [iii] target may be near 1775.00, with a minimum of 1800.00. 

SPX may spend the rest of today bouncing to its 1833.00 target.  Tomorrow we may see the larger Wave [iii] decline. 


VIX broke out to a high of 14.66, confirming its own buy signal and a sell signal for SPX.  It may spend the rest of the afternoon in a pullback, but we may anticipate a run to the daily Cycle Top at 18.08 in the next move.  This is the “buy on the pullback” signal for the VIX.

The NYSE Hi-Lo index is now on a confirmed sell, despite a pullback at the close.  This rounds out the Triumvirate of signals that accompany my Cycle Model.

Subscriber Jack has asked if I would comment on the US Dollar.  The dollar just made a Primary Cycle High on Tuesday, January 21.  It is now in a short-term pullback mode prior to re-launching its rally. 

The first and simplest explanation is that the dollar completed a Minor Wave 1 impulse to the January 21 high and must complete a Minor Wave 2 over the next few days.  The futures show a low of 81.58, which seems excessive, but that is not unusual.  We could see a revisit back to the Triangle trendline one final time before the Wave [iii] of Wave 3 launch. 

One other explanation is that June 13, 2013 Master Cycle is on day 224 and counting.  Sould we see the USD go to or below the Triangle Trendline, I will be sorely tempted to call it a Master Cycle low.  This may happen as early as this weekend. 

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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