Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Yellen Like Magellan

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Feb 11, 2014 - 03:20 PM GMT

By: PhilStockWorld

Stock-Markets

More free money?

That's the hope on which the markets are pinning this little rally as we bounce quickly off S&P support at 1,750 and already back to 1,800 – halfway back to 1,850 – making this little pullback the smallest of blips in the great bull rally of 2009 (now up 177% in 5 years).


What inflation? There's no inflation – unless you are buying stocks – then there has bee lots of inflation! The Fed has put $4 TRILLION into the markets through various operations and Global equities have gone up from about $30Tn to $80Tn. Don't worry though, if you add in what the BOJ, ECB and PBOC put into their ends of the markets, we're only about $40Tn shy – how could that possibly be a problem?

It's only a problem if people try to sell. Then, like 2008, they suddenly find out there's no actual buyers and prices plunge. As long as people keep believing that the market will always go up – everything will be fine – just like it was in 2007 (and 1999). So – NO SELLING PEOPLE!!!

Actually we did sell TSLA as they tested $200 and SCTY at $75 (see Member Chat for spread ideas) but we're also looking to add our bullish hedges (see yesterday's post) assuming the Futures rally holds up and we hit our tartget levels of Dow 15,900, S&P 1,806, Nasdaq 4,135, NYSE 10,100 and Russell 1,126. As I noted yesterday, we'll be happy to see just 2 of those levels and we're willing to go bullish but a rejection here today indicates we're simply forming that shoulder pattern ahead of the next leg down.

Look how quickly we flew from oversold back towards overbought on Dave Fry's McClellan Oscillator. Think about it, we "only" bounced back half but we're 2/3 of the way back to being very overbought – even though yesterday was generally flat we still bumped the oscillator up 38% – that's not really a good sign for the bulls.

Also a bad sign is Barclays (BCS) slashing 12,000 jobs as Q4 shows net losses of $844M, largely due to litigation expenses and penalties and, like JPM, they are raising bonuses 10% for the surviving staff – rewards to those who didn't get caught yet! The UK is beginning to believe in global warming as the island goes underwater from the worst floods in over 250 years. At least it will give them an excuse if Q1 numbers fail to meet expectations…

Speaking of expectations: It's 8:30 now and Yellen's prepared text to Congress is out and we shorted the Russell Futures (/TF) ahead of the notes as they crossed below 1,120 in our early morning Member Chat as we thought expectations were too high and we were brushing up against overhead resistance (see 5% Rule™).

Yellen says: "Our sense is that at this stage these developments (turmoil in Emerging Markets) do not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economic outlook" and "The recovery in the labor market is far from complete" and "These observations underscore the importance of considering more than the unemployment rate when evaluating U.S. labor market conditions."

We'll get a bit more color when she goes before Congress but there's not too much for bulls to sink their teeth into after a 3-day, 3% rally based on expectations of Yellen handing out MORE FREE MONEY. Usually, when more money is not promised, the market has a little temper-tantrum – we'll see if this time is going to be different or not.

- Phil

Click here for a free trial to Stock World Weekly.

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2014 Copyright  PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

PhilStockWorld Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules