Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF - 26th Oct 21
Food Prices & Farm Inputs Getting Hard to Stomach - 26th Oct 21
Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? - 26th Oct 21
Dave Antrobus Welcomes Caribou to Award-Winning Group Inc & Co - 26th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend - 26th Oct 21
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! - 25th Oct 21
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? - 25th Oct 21
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot - 25th Oct 21
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds - 25th Oct 21
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Hits Fresh Monthly High

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 14, 2014 - 08:54 AM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Wednesday, crude oil rose on better than expected economic data from China and climbed to its highest level since late October. Despite an increase to a fresh monthly high, light crude reversed after the EIA data showed that crude inventories rose more than expected. In this way, crude oil lost 0.11%, but closed the day above $100 per barrel.


Yesterday's data showed that China's trade surplus widened to $31.86 billion last month from $25.6 billion in December, beating expectations for a $23.65 billion surplus. Additionally, Chinese exports climbed 10.6% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 2% increase and following a 4.3% gain in December. Imports rose 10%, compared to forecasts for a 3% increase. Please note that according to preliminary customs data, Chinese imports of crude oil hit an all-time monthly high in January (China imported 28.16 million metric tons of crude oil, equivalent to 6.66 million barrels a day, which is 12% above the year-ago level.).

Despite this positive data, which encouraged the buyers to push the price higher, crude oil reversed and gave up earlier gains after the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 7 compared to expectations for an increase of 2.7 million barrels (it was the fourth weekly gain for domestic crude supplies).

Having discussed the above, let's move on to the technical changes in crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).


On the above chart, we see that crude oil broke above the December peak and hit a fresh monthly high of $101.38. Although this was a strong bullish signal, we didn't see further improvement and light crude reversed before reaching its upside target (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level). An invalidation of the breakout was a bearish signal, which encouraged sellers to act and resulted in a drop to the lower border of a small rising wedge (marked in red on the above chart). With this downswing, light crude also approached the upper border of the rising trend channel (marked with blue).

From this perspective, we should consider two scenarios once again. On one hand, if this support zone encourages oil bulls to act, we may see another attempt to move higher. However, taking into account the fact that yesterday's drop materialized on relative large volume (which confirms the strength of the sellers) and combining it with an invalidation of the breakout above the December high and the current position of the indicators, it seems that we will likely see further deterioration in the coming day (or days). Additionally, if the price drops below the lower border of a small rising wedge, we will see an invalidation of the breakout above the upper border of the rising trend channel, which will be a bearish signal. If this is the case, the downside target will be the lower border of the rising trend channel (currently around $97.50). Please note that the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought, which suggests that a correction is just around the corner.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let's take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).


Quoting our last Oil Trading Alert:

(...) WTI Crude Oil almost touched the December high (which is still reinforced by a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern)(...) if the CFD breaks above this important resistance level, we will likely see further increases and the first upside target will be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $101.70.

As you see on the above chart, WTI Crude Oil broke above the December high, but the buyers didn't manage to push the CFD to its upside target, which was a first bearish sign. In the following hours, the price also dropped below the previously-broken resistance level and declined to the upper border of the rising trend channel (which actually looks like a rising wedge from this perspective). Earlier today, we saw further deterioration as the CFD declined below this important support line. If oil bulls manage to invalidate this breakdown, we may see an upswing to yesterday's high. However, if they fail and WTI Crude Oil closes the day below the upper border of the rising trend channel (rising wedge), it will be a strong bearish signal that will likely trigger further deterioration. At this point it's worth noting that the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI generated sell signals, which is a bearish signal that may encourages sellers to act.

Summing up, although crude oil hit a fresh monthly high, it quickly reversed and erased earlier gains. As mentioned earlier, an invalidation of the breakout is a bearish signal (especially when we take into account the fact that yesterday's drop materialized on relative large volume and the current position of the indicators), which will likely trigger further deterioration in the coming day (or days). On top of that, the current situation in the CFD (sell signals generated by the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator) supports oil bears. So, if light crude drops below the lower border of a small rising wedge, we will see an invalidation of the breakout above the upper border of the rising trend channel and probably a bigger pullback (if this is the case, the downside target will be the lower border of the rising trend channel, currently slightly above $97). Connecting the dots, all the above suggests that a correction is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: bullish
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, as long as there is no an invalidation of the breakout above the upper line of the rising trend channel, the situation will not be bearish enough to justify opening short positions. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in