Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

U.S. Dollar Gains - Forex Trading Alerts

Currencies / Forex Trading Feb 26, 2014 - 10:17 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons


The U.S. dollar extended gains after stronger-than-expected U.S. home sales data. Earlier today, the Commerce Department showed that new home sales rose 9.6% to 468,000 units in January, while analysts had expected a 1% drop to 400,000. What impact did this largest increase in five-and-a-half years has on major currency pairs? If you want to know our take on this question, we invite you to read our today's Forex Trading Alert.

In our opinion the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

  • EUR/USD: short (stop-loss order: 1.3773, a downside price target: 1.3600)
  • GBP/USD: none
  • USD/JPY: none
  • USD/CAD: short (stop-loss order: 1.1223, an initial price target: 1.0953)
  • USD/CHF: none
  • AUD/USD: none


As you see on the above chart, earlier today, EUR/USD broke below the lower border of the rising trend channel and declined below the Feb.20 low. Therefore, our bearish scenario from the last Forex Trading Alert is up-to-date:

(…)  we may see a decline even to around 1.3613 where the price target for the pattern is (please note that it corresponds to a height of the trend channel). More importantly, if the pair drops below the Feb. 20 low, we will likely see a post double top decline. In this case, the price target for the sellers will be around 1.3600 (marked with a light blue rectangle). From this perspective, in both cases we will likely see a decline below the upper border of the declining trend channel (marked with blue), which will be a strong negative signal that could trigger further deterioration.

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short. A stop-loss order: 1.3773 and a downside price target: 1.3600.


In our last Forex Trading Alert, we wrote the following:

(…) a corrective upswing (…) took the pair to the previously-broken lower border of the rising wedge (…) if this strong resistance line encourages sellers to act, we will likely see another attempt to move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Please note that this scenario is reinforced by the fact that GBP/USD confirmed a breakdown below this medium-term resistance line in recent days (we saw four consecutive closes).

Yesterday, GBP/USD gave up the gains and reversed, finishing the day for the fifth time in a row below the lower border of the rising wedge. From this perspective, it seems that the recent upswing was nothing more than a verification of the breakdown, which is a bearish signal. If this is the case, we will likely see a drop to (at least) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in the coming day (or days).

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment as the current situation is unclear.


From this perspective, we see that the situation hasn’t changed much as USD/JPY remains in the rising wedge (marked with light blue) between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the recent decline). So, what we wrote in yesterday’s Forex Trading Alert is still up-to-date.

(…) as long as there is no breakout above the upper line (or a breakdown below the lower border) a bigger upswing (or downswing) is not likely to be seen. (…) the upper line is currently reinforced by a resistance zone created by the Jan.13 low and Jan.31 high (marked with orange). If this resistance is broken, we will likely see an upward move to at least the declining resistance line based on the Jan.10 and Jan.23 highs (marked with red). However, if this strong resistance encourages sellers to act, we will see a drop to the lower border of the rising wedge in the near future. If the pair drops below this important support line, we will probably see a re-test of the strength of the February low. At this point it’s worth noting that the price target after a breakdown is a bit lower than the monthly low and we marked it with a yellow rectangle. Looking at the position of the indicators, we see that the CCI generated a sell signal and Stochastic Oscillator is close to doing it. So, a bearish scenario is more likely at the moment.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, the situation is too unclear to go short or long at the moment. So, no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.


As you see on the daily chart, the situation has improved as USD/CAD moved higher earlier today. Despite this increase, the pair remains in a consolidation range (marked with light blue) between Monday high and low. From this perspective, if the exchange rate climbs above the upper border of this formation, we may see further improvement and the first upside target would be the Feb.21 high (slightly below the upper line of the rising trend channel). However, we should keep in mind that all indicators support sellers at the moment as sell signals remain in place.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bullish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term; out opinion): Short. Stop-loss order: 1.1223, and an initial price target: 1.0953.


Quoting our last Forex Trading Alert:

(…) the pair dropped below a support zone (marked with green), which suggests that we will likely see a re-test of the strength of the February low in the nearest future. If this support level holds, we may see another attempt to invalidate the breakdown below the major resistance line.

Yesterday, we saw such price action as USD/CHF almost touched the monthly low. Earlier today, this support level encouraged buyers to act, which resulted in a sharp corrective upswing that took the pair above the short-term resistance line (marked with blue). Although this is a positive signal, we saw similar increases in recent days. So far, none of them brought buyers a victory and the exchange rate reversed. From this perspective, as long as the pair does not close the day above this major resistance line, another attempt to move lower can’t be ruled out. Nevertheless, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that all indicators support buyers at the moment (the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator generated buy signals). Taking this fact into account, if USD/CHF climbs above yesterday’s high, we may see a post double bottom rally. In this case, the price target for the pattern would be around 0.8968. However, we should keep in mind that before buyers realize this scenario, they will have to break above the very short-term declining line (marked with red), which may not be so easy, because this resistance line successfully stopped (even several times) further improvement earlier this month.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term):  In our opinion, the situation is too unclear to go long or short at the moment.


Earlier today, AUD/USD extended losses and almost dropped to the very short-term rising support line (marked with green), which remains the nearest major support. If this important line holds and encourages buyers to act, we may see a corrective upswing (similarly to what we saw on Monday) and a comeback to around this week high. However, if it is broken, we will likely see further deterioration and a drop to a support zone created by the Feb.13 and Feb.20 lows. Please note that slightly below this area is also the Feb.10 low (currently reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the recent rally), which may pause or even stop further declines.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion, opening any positions at the moment is not a good idea as AUD/USD remains between an important support line and a strong resistance zone created by the February high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts

* * * * *



All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules