Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Crude Oil Price Still Remains Below Important Resistance

Commodities / Crude Oil Mar 25, 2014 - 02:06 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.

On Friday, crude oil gained 0.95% as concerns about economic sanctions against Russia weighted on the price. In this way, light crude climbed above $100 for the first time since March 11. Despite this increase, crude oil gave up the gains in the following hours and finished the day below this important barrier once again.


At the end of last week, geopolitical tensions over Russia's annexation of Crimea remained high as the European Union and the U.S. intensified sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies. Western nations expanded the list of people targeted by sanctions to include several people close to Mr. Putin (including a financial institution, Bank Rossiya, that is owned by a member of Mr. Putin's inner circle). These circumstances fueled concerns that sanctions against Russia could have economic implications and pushed the price of light crude above the psychological barrier of $100 on Friday. Nevertheless, later in the day, crude oil reversed as Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia should refrain from further retaliation against the U.S. in response to sanctions targeting members of his inner circle and other high-ranking government officials following the annexation of Crimea. This comment came shortly before Russia's upper house of parliament approved a treaty to formally annex Crimea which voted to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia during the previous weekend.

Having discussed the above, let's move on to the technical changes in crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Quoting our last Oil Trading Alert:

(...) oil bulls tried to push the price above the declining resistance line (...) after the market open, but they failed. (...) However, if this line is broken, we may see further improvement and an increase to the 200-day moving average, which still serves as the major resistance (currently at $100.27). At this point it's worth noting that this area is also reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent decline (around $100.33).

Looking at the above chart we see that the buyers realized this pro growth scenario on Friday. However, a strong resistance zone created by the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement successfully stopped further improvement and encouraged oil bears to act. In this way, light crude reversed and declined to the consolidation range (marked with a blue rectangle) once again. From this perspective, it seems that as long as crude oil remains below the resistance zone, a bigger upward move is not likely to be seen. Please note that, slightly above the resistance is also the declining resistance line (marked with red), which reinforces this area (currently around $100.60). Additionally, Friday's upswing materialized on relative small volume, which is not a bullish sign.

Having discussed the current situation in light crude, let's take a look at WTI Crude Oil (the CFD).

In our last Oil Trading Alert, we wrote the following:

(...) if WTI Crude Oil climbs above the 50-day moving average, we will likely see an increase above the upper line of a consolidation range (marked with a blue rectangle). In this case, the first upside target will be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $100.08 (...).

On Friday, oil bulls successfully realized this scenario and pushed the CFD to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, as you see on the above chart, this improvement was only temporarily. WTI Crude Oil reversed in the following hours and slipped to the consolidation range (similarly to what we saw in the case of light crude). Although the buyers tried to break above the upper line of the consolidation earlier today, the CFD still remains below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which serves as major resistance and keeps further gains in check.

Summing up, although we saw the first attempt to break above the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, oil bulls failed and the price declined to the consolidation range. Additionally, Friday's increase materialized on relative small volume, which doesn't confirm the strength of the buyers at the moment. The current situation in WTI Crude Oil suggests that we may see another attempt to move higher (in the case of light crude) after the market open. However, as mentioned earlier, as long as crude oil remains below the resistance zone, a bigger upward move is not likely to be seen.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias MT outlook: bullish LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short. Stop-loss orders for crude oil and WTI Crude Oil (CFD): $102.95.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits‘ Contributing Author

Nadia is a private investor and trader, dealing in currencies, commodities (mainly crude oil), and stocks. Using her background in technical analysis, she spends countless hours identifying market trends, major support and resistance zones, breakouts and failures. In her writing, she presents complex ideas with clarity that enables you to easily understand market changes, and profit on them. Nadia is the person behind Sunshine Profits' 3 premium trading services: Forex Trading Alerts, Oil Trading Alerts, and Oil Investment Updates.

* * * * *

 

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules