Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

USDJPY Set For New Highs

Currencies / Japanese Yen May 23, 2014 - 10:29 PM GMT

By: Submissions

Currencies

Austin Galt writes: Let’s begin by taking a look at the big picture, the yearly chart.

YEARLY CHART

Here we can see a powerful up move started in 2012, went full bore in 2013 and seems to have stagnated in 2014. It appears that a longterm bear market is in force consisting of lower lows and lower highs and so far the last few years of trading hasn’t damaged that technical picture.



So what can we expect going forward? Let’s take a look at the monthly chart to get a better idea.

MONTHLY CHART



It is clearly evident that after a spectacular 2013, the price now seems a bit exhausted. After the first high (1) at 103.73 in 2013 it then battled for a marginally higher high (2) at 105.73 at the beginning of 2014. To me eye it looks as if a common topping pattern may be occurring which consists of 3 consecutive marginally higher highs. I’ve nicknamed this the “three strikes and you’re out” topping formation as generally after the third high strike it’s all over red rover, well at least that part of the trend. A significant correction occurs and potentially even a new downtrend.

WEEKLY CHART



Looking at the weekly chart we can see that a period of consolidation appears to be the current play. I have put some bollinger bands on the chart. It can be seen that during the uplegs which started in 2012 the price clings to the upper band and when correcting it drops back to the lower band. Then a period of dillying and dallying takes place before price decides its next course of action.

I’ve also taken a stab at some Elliott Wave labelling. I don’t like to get too bogged down with EW analysis but the general picture can be helpful in determining where we are in the trend. What is very clear is that the impulsive Wave 3 occurred in 2013 and now price is struggling to find the final top in Wave 5.

I still think more evidence of where we are headed is needed so let’s bring it in tight and have a look at the daily chart.

DAILY CHART



What we have here is very interesting. In the last couple of days it appears as if a double bottom has formed around the 100.80 level. I love double bottoms as they give me great confidence in determining which direction is next. If the double bottom is against the trend then I’m fairly confident it won’t hold and price will come back down. If the double bottom is with the trend then price should head further upwards. And the latter is exactly what we have here - a double bottom with the trend. We can see how price has gone down to test the 100.80 level before reversing and making a positive candle. That is then followed up by another strong day. This double bottom should be the springboard to take price to another marginal new high for the third and possibly last time. A break of the 100.80 level now would be a bearish sign but until that happens it’s onwards and upwards...............

Bio
I have studied charts for over 20 years and currently am a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts, at least ones that had a reasonable idea of things. So my aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

I am available to be a paid contributor for a reputable outfit. Contact austingalt@hotmail.com

© 2014 Copyright  Austin Galt - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in