Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Rally Refuses to Die

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jun 21, 2014 - 07:39 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

I'll keep this brief this weekend as there really is very little, if anything, to add to what I have been talking about for weeks, if not months. The market is somehow finding a way to hang in there against all the odds. The froth and greed are ramping higher by the day as the market hangs tough. Yet, through all this greed and froth the market doesn't fall. It should get crushed, yet it doesn't. We have had exceptions to the rule historically. In the bear market of 2007 we had a bull-bear spread of -22%. Maybe we need +50 this time to get a top in. No one knows, but in the end, it's always about one thing in the short-term and that one thing, of course, is price. Nothing else. PRICE! What is price doing and how are those oscillators responding is all we care about. Nothing else.


Sure, we're on guard for all other possibilities. We watch for that big gap down. We watch for the gap and, run lower all day, but until we see it on higher volume, and until we get the follow through gap down over time, we can't get bearish. Getting bearish ahead of the move has caused nothing but massive pain to the folks, and there's lots of them, for a long time now. Front running rarely works because trends are hard to break. Being the one to call the trend change ahead of time is a fun thought, but it doesn't usually work out very well. I can tell you there are lots of people who wish they didn't play with reality as part of their mantra. Reality is only what takes place. Since the market is mostly a big lie in terms of truth, why bother playing it any other way. In the end, the market is hanging tougher than it probably should, but there's still no reversal stick to tell us to move away from what we've been doing for a many months now.

Just a quick over view of key support in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The index of reality and the index of froth. Froth leads bull markets. Reality leads bears. Let's focus on the bull. The Nasdaq 100 has a strong gap between 4186 (bottom) and 4204 (top). Only when 4186 goes on a closing basis do we need to pay special attention to a realistic trend change. And only when the S&P 500 loses the key level of 1897 do we have trouble there. Anything above 1897 and 4186 is useless in terms of understanding whether we're about to break down or not. We can sell decently, and it can feel like a trend change ahead of those levels, so be careful not to judge what's happening until those levels are gone for good. A strong close below 4186 and 1897 on high volume will do the trick.

With all the warnings out there just be smart and keep things appropriate. Don't get overly involved with froth or high P/E situations. Keep stops very tight so as to not let things get out of hand. Take gains quicker than normal. Day by day until the market shows its hand that things are now reversing.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2014 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in