Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Rally Refuses to Die

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jun 21, 2014 - 07:39 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

I'll keep this brief this weekend as there really is very little, if anything, to add to what I have been talking about for weeks, if not months. The market is somehow finding a way to hang in there against all the odds. The froth and greed are ramping higher by the day as the market hangs tough. Yet, through all this greed and froth the market doesn't fall. It should get crushed, yet it doesn't. We have had exceptions to the rule historically. In the bear market of 2007 we had a bull-bear spread of -22%. Maybe we need +50 this time to get a top in. No one knows, but in the end, it's always about one thing in the short-term and that one thing, of course, is price. Nothing else. PRICE! What is price doing and how are those oscillators responding is all we care about. Nothing else.


Sure, we're on guard for all other possibilities. We watch for that big gap down. We watch for the gap and, run lower all day, but until we see it on higher volume, and until we get the follow through gap down over time, we can't get bearish. Getting bearish ahead of the move has caused nothing but massive pain to the folks, and there's lots of them, for a long time now. Front running rarely works because trends are hard to break. Being the one to call the trend change ahead of time is a fun thought, but it doesn't usually work out very well. I can tell you there are lots of people who wish they didn't play with reality as part of their mantra. Reality is only what takes place. Since the market is mostly a big lie in terms of truth, why bother playing it any other way. In the end, the market is hanging tougher than it probably should, but there's still no reversal stick to tell us to move away from what we've been doing for a many months now.

Just a quick over view of key support in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The index of reality and the index of froth. Froth leads bull markets. Reality leads bears. Let's focus on the bull. The Nasdaq 100 has a strong gap between 4186 (bottom) and 4204 (top). Only when 4186 goes on a closing basis do we need to pay special attention to a realistic trend change. And only when the S&P 500 loses the key level of 1897 do we have trouble there. Anything above 1897 and 4186 is useless in terms of understanding whether we're about to break down or not. We can sell decently, and it can feel like a trend change ahead of those levels, so be careful not to judge what's happening until those levels are gone for good. A strong close below 4186 and 1897 on high volume will do the trick.

With all the warnings out there just be smart and keep things appropriate. Don't get overly involved with froth or high P/E situations. Keep stops very tight so as to not let things get out of hand. Take gains quicker than normal. Day by day until the market shows its hand that things are now reversing.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2014 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in