Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Buy the Dip, Bail Out, Or Just Worry?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Aug 02, 2014 - 04:25 AM GMT

By: Sy_Harding


Here we are in August and the debate still continues as to whether the promised bounce-back from the winter slowdown took place, or if the economy is in an ongoing slump.

Why should there be any question?

The Fed assured us again at its FOMC meeting on Wednesday that “Growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved. . . . . Household spending appears to be rising moderately, and business fixed investment is advancing.” It did acknowledge that “the recovery in the housing sector remains slow.”

What could be more reassuring than that, the proverbial ‘Goldilocks economy’, improving but neither too hot nor too cold?

Realizing it is the Fed’s job to always be optimistic and assuring, analysts and investors hoped the major economic reports of the last ten days would provide similar assurances.

However, the reports raised more questions than they answered.

Reports from the important housing industry remained dismal, indicating not just that its recovery “remains slow”, but that its recovery reversed to the downside months ago.

New home starts fell 6.5% in May, and permits for future starts fell 6.4%. That carried through to an 8.1% plunge in new home sales in June, missing the consensus forecast by a wide margin. New home sales are now 11.5% lower than a year ago.

It was reported this week that Pending Home Sales fell 1.1% in June, moving the index to 7.3% below its level of a year ago. There was also the report that Construction Spending plunged 1.8% in June. Those reports do not bode well for the housing industry’s next reports for July.

On the positive side, auto sales, the other major driving force for the economy, continued to surge higher. General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan all reported sizable sales increases in July.

So, take your choice. Is the housing industry issuing a warning that we need to heed, or do auto sales trump housing and signal all is well?

Meanwhile, like the housing sector reports, the employment reports also disappointed.

The ADP employment report showed the economy created only 218,000 new jobs in the private sector in July, down from 281,000 in June. The Labor Department jobs report on Friday showed the economy created only 209,000 jobs in July, missing the consensus forecast of 235,000. In addition, the unemployment rate ticked up from 6.1% to 6.2%.

Even the biggest surprise of the week, that GDP growth bounced back to an annualized rate of 4.0% in the second quarter, better than the consensus forecast for 3.0%, failed to be assuring.

Analysts pointed out that 1.6% of that 4.0% growth was due to inventory building. Periods of unusual inventory building are usually followed by a decline in activity in subsequent periods as that inventory is worked off.

Manufacturing reports also provided an inconsistent picture.

The important Chicago PMI Mfg Index plunged to 52.6 in July from 62.6 in June, much worse than the consensus forecast of an improvement to 63.6. It was the biggest decline in the Chicago Index since October 2008. The Market PMI Mfg Index declined from 57.3 in June to 55.8 in July. However, the ISM Mfg Index improved from 55.3 in June to 57.1 in July.

Overall, the reports did not provide the hoped for assurances.

In addition, they certainly did nothing to alleviate the high market risk indicated by stock valuations, investor bullishness and complacency, insider and institutional selling, the Fed tapering back stimulus, toppy European markets, unfavorable seasonality, and the unusually long time without a normal 10% to 15% correction.

So apparently tired of ‘doing nothing complacency’ while waiting for confirmation that the ‘all is well’ assurances are factual, markets took matters in their own hands. They sold off sharply this week.

There were even some signs of panic in the big decline on Thursday, when there was no escaping the carnage. They were throwing the baby out with the dishwater so to speak. Even safe haven bonds closed down, and there were ten times as many stocks down as up on the NYSE. It also showed up in the volume, with almost a billion shares traded on the NYSE and 2.1 billion shares on the Nasdaq, roughly 50% about recent average daily volume.

Yet, as of Thursday’s close, the Dow was only 3.4% beneath its mid-month peak, the S&P 500 only 2.0% beneath its record high, and the Nasdaq down only 2.6%.

However, with the market having made so little progress in 2014, the Dow has given back all its 2014 year-to-date gains. So you could wonder if it was worth the risk. The Sell in May and Go Away saying is not looking as silly as it did a month ago.

The market is down 3% from its peak. Buying 3% dips has worked all year. Or is it a last opportunity to sell near a market top?

All I can say is that nothing I saw in the Fed’s assurances, or in the week’s big ration of economic reports, has changed my expectations of a significant 15% to 20% correction during the market’s unfavorable season, to a low in the October/November time-frame.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post.

© 2014 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Sy Harding Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules