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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

U.S. House Prices to Soar AFTER the Fed Raises Rates

Housing-Market / US Housing Aug 31, 2014 - 06:38 PM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Housing-Market

Dr Steve Sjuggerud writes:"Steve, you know the housing boom will end when the Fed raises interest rates, right?"

Oh really? What makes you so sure about that?

"Steve, you know that mortgage rates are going up, right? And you know that when mortgage rates rise, house prices will fall – or at least stop going up – right?"


I just learned that people really don't think that house prices can go a lot higher...

I just gave a few speeches to investors in California. And it seems people are unanimously worried about higher interest rates.

Yes, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates next year. But no, that does not mean that the housing market is doomed.

In fact, the opposite is true, based on history...

Contrary to popular opinion (and based on data going back 46 years), home prices tend to do better when the Fed is raising interest rates.

This is counter-intuitive. But it's absolutely true.

Housing rises faster than normal when the Fed raises rates. And it rises slower than normal when the fed cuts rates. Take a look...

Since 1968, the average one-year gain on U.S. housing was 5.3%. If you'd bought when the Fed started raising interest rates, you'd dramatically improve on that number.

This relationship is consistent across time frames, as the table shows. And the numbers are similar during all periods of tightening and easing, as well.

Simply put, buying as tightening begins (and during tightening in general) beats the average gain on housing – even over the next two years.

Of course, these aren't "get rich"-type returns. But if you're buying a home with a mortgage, these numbers could make a big difference.

Say you put 10% down on a $100,000 home. If you see the typical 13.3% historical two-year gain after the Fed starts raising interest rates, then your property would now be worth $113,300.

You put up $10,000, and now you're sitting on a $13,300 profit... or a 133% return. (Of course, this doesn't include closing costs, etc. This was just to show that the gains can be significant.)

And I predict home prices could go much higher than these numbers suggest. I'm not just saying this – it's what I'm doing with my real dollars... I have much more money in Florida real estate (even outside of my own home) than I do in the stock market today. I believe in it that much.

Regardless of what the Fed does, all of the driving factors of the housing recovery are still in place. Mortgage rates are low. Houses are extremely affordable based on history. And there's not enough new supply coming on line yet. Prices could continue higher for at least a few more years.

You may agree with "the crowd." You may think that once the Fed raises rates, it's over...

You may think that... but I'm telling you, you are wrong...

History shows that house prices perform their best when the Fed starts raising interest rates. Use that knowledge of history to your advantage... and make sure you stay in real estate even after the Fed raises rates...

Good investing,

Steve

Editor's note: If you'd like more insight and actionable advice from Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, consider a free subscription to DailyWealth. Sign up for DailyWealth here and receive a report on the top ways to protect your money, your family, your health, and your privacy. This report will show you the best "common sense" solutions to help you protect yourself from some of the worst elements in America today. Click here to learn more.

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The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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