Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Turning Japanese

Economics / Deflation Sep 04, 2014 - 07:55 AM GMT

By: Jonathan_Davis

Economics

A theme I have written of many times, during the last few years, is how we, in the West, may be #turningjapanese.  What this refers to is Japan’s lost TWO decades between 1989 and 2012 when Japan had Deflation and a slow growing or mostly falling economy – in other words a generational Depression.  During this period their stock market and their real estate valuations collapsed 80% each.


In the West we have had practically zero interest rates (Base Rates) for several years now, yet… contrary to consensus economists’ prognostications, not only is inflation not rising but actually we are positively in at least DISinflation (falling inflation) or, in some countries in the EU, in downright DEflation – falling PRICES.

We have long said this may happen and we have long said we are probably nowhere near the end of this particular road.

THIS is the INEVITABLE result of the debt mania we have had for many years.  Eventually, there is so much debt that whatever governments and central banks do they CANNOT avoid deflation.  Don’t listen to me, it’s what the Finance Minister (think UK Chancellor) Herr Schäuble of Germany said last week German Finance Minister on Bloomberg TV (5m 15s in).

I repeat, we have been saying similar for years.

So the new Bogeyman is Deflation.

Politicians and Central Banks tell us we MUST avoid it at all costs because, after all, look what happened to Japan during its deflationary Depression, they utter.

Except Japan did not have a Depression BECAUSE of Deflation, it was Deflation and Depression which AROSE FROM the fallout of a massive debt bubble which burst in the late 80s.

Also, what did Japan do to come out of Depression?  They borrowed more.  And more.  And more.  They are now the most heavily indebted country in the developed world.  And, though, they are now moving to INFlation, they remain in Depression.  Google Einstein to see his definition of insanity.

And, look at that, whatever mistakes Japan did for now 25 years, the West has been making exactly the same ones since 2009.  Solution to the huge Recession in 2008 from the initial bursting of the debt bubble…?  Borrow massively more.  Again and again and again.  It’s called Quantitative Easing.

You Couldn’t Make It Up.

So our economy will go the same way as Japan.  That is our prognosis based on the experience of Japan and we are doing as they did.

It seems the ‘smartest’ investors in the World agree with little us – the Bond market is deemed more canny than those in the stock market.  And when Bond prices are rising it suggests falling interest rates and falling inflation and slowing or falling economies.

When bond prices rise, their associated yields (or interest rates) fall (do ask if you wish a detailed explanation).  The table below, from Wednesday 27 August, shows the real time prices and yields from across the World.  The blue dot – to the left of the range – shows where yields are now, compared to the range over the last year.

Almost all of the blue dots ie almost all government bond yields are at year lows.

Don’t listen to me (the bulk don’t!), listen to the likes of The Finance Minister of a little country called Germany AKA The EU’s Sugar Daddy and the MultiHundred TRILLION $ market which is government bonds.

WE ARE IN AT LEAST DISINFLATION AND PROBABLY OUTRIGHT DEFLATION.

As I am often wont to say on Twitter we are #turningjapanese.

NB. There are those who believe that inflation is what Japan desperately needs.  Forget reform of the banking system, uncompetitive labour laws, immigration (or lack of it), demographics.

Yes, it’s all about inflation.  You Couldn’t Make It Up!

Remember GDP percentages are, normally, gross.  Take off the inflation and you’re left with reality.

Nothing in these articles can be taken as financial advice.  Neither Jonathan Davis nor Jonathan Davis Wealth Management will be held responsible for action taken or not taken from reading these articles.

We recommend investors seek bespoke advice before acting.

By Jonathan Davis

http://jonathandaviswm.wordpress.com/

25+ year veteran of the world of financial services, the last 10 doing the same thing under his own name.  We work with families all over the UK and in Switzerland and, indeed, on 2 other continents. If interested in our Wealth Management work, cast a glance at the firm’s website.

From time to time media folk call me and ask me to rant live or in the press.  JD in the media.

I don’t buy hype.  I don’t believe it’s the end of the world but I do believe, within a generation, the West will have no welfare state.  The maths don’t lie.  We’re toast.  It’s obvious if you think about it.

© 2014 Copyright Jonathan Davis - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules