Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

HUI Gold Stocks Analysis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Oct 03, 2014 - 07:48 AM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

In February of 2013 we noted the big fat HEAD on the HUI’s massive H&S pattern.  It was reviewed again in April of 2013 after it broke the neckline in a very bearish move.  Mr. Fat Head’s technical objective was and is 100.

Why is this being revisited?  Because I have gotten a couple emails noting that it is showing up again out there amidst the very bearish backdrop.  If anything, if every gold bug on the planet is planning for 100, the ingredient is in place for this final indignity that they are so well prepared for, to maybe not happen.


But a target is a target and it is there for a reason; namely that its source – Mr. Fat Head in this case – has not been eliminated from the picture.  Here he is updated…

There are other considerations…

  • MACD is crossed up
  • RSI is well below 50 and its EMA 50
  • AROON is and has been trend down
  • HUI is below thick resistance around 250
  • It has notable support at current levels
  • A higher low to 2008 is still in place
  • A trend is a trend until it is broken, and it is down on all time frames

A lot of people think TA sucks because a lot of TA’s try to baffle people with b/s, ascribing greater power to charting than it deserves.  Still, it is a handy tool as it irrefutably gave warning signals on the bear market.  Signals 1, 2 (which is when NFTRH went into full risk management mode as HUI lost 460 in November of 2012) and 3.

Dial ahead to today.  A final and terrible drop may indeed come about.  But here again I remind you not to take anyone with just a chart and an overly bullish or overly bearish thesis too seriously.  It stimulates the greed and fear response and right now everyone in the gold sector is well gripped in fear.  There is much more to any given narrative.

For reference on why charting in a vacuum in not good I trot out to you my one time 888 projection for HUI (I just love owning this one ;-) ) based on a pattern that was every bit as bullish as Mr. Fat Head is bearish.  Just as I ask you now to take 100 for what it’s worth, I noted the same thing for the 3 Snowmen (888) back then.  Targets are just targets/measurements, not directives.

For reference I offer my own screw up and the S&P 500’s target off a very similar pattern that has happily gotten most of the way to target.

TA is a guide (subject to ongoing revision), not a director.  HUI has a target of 100 and so many other potentials in play.  Only week to week management of not only the technicals, but especially the macro fundamentals will see us through.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart/trade ideas!

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2014 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in