Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Stocks Bull Market Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Feb 15, 2015 - 05:12 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

New all time highs. The week started at SPX 2055, gapped down to open the week, then hit 2042 late Monday afternoon. That was the low for the week. Tuesday the market gapped up, and then made higher highs for the rest of the week culminating with an all time high at SPX 2097. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.55%, the NDX/NAZ gained 3.00%, and the DJ World index gained 1.75%. On the economic front reports were not quite as rosy. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories. On the downtick: retail sales, export/import prices, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit increased. Next week, after the Monday holiday, we get reports on the NY/Philly FED, Housing and Industrial production.


LONG TERM: bull market

The 2009 Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold as labeled. This five Primary wave bull market has only completed Primary waves I and II. When this occurred in 2011 Primary wave III began, and it has been underway ever since. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1 and simple Major waves 3 and 5. Primary III appears to be alternating. It has had a simple Major wave 1, a quite extended and subdividing Major 3, and possibly a subdividing Major wave 5 is now underway.

During Primary I the market displayed somewhat of an oddity in its five Major wave pattern. Major wave 1 was longer than both Major waves 3 through 5 combined. Normally, the first wave of any five wave sequence just does enough to kickoff the sequence. Then after a second wave decline, the third wave is the longest and thrust of the advance. Once this occurs, and after a fourth wave decline, the fifth wave can be any length. Primary wave III is displaying exaggerated but more normal characteristics. Major wave 1 did just enough to kick off Primary III. Then after a Major wave 2 correction, Major wave 3 advanced a near perfect Fibonacci 4.236 relationship to Major 1: SPX 2082 v SPX 2079. Also during the five Intermediate waves, that created Major wave 3, Int. wave v was a near perfect match to Int. wave i: SPX 2084 v SPX 2079. And, to our surprise, we have alternation now between the zigzag of Major 2 and the irregular flat of Major 4. Despite these lofty levels, wave patterns are actually starting to normalize.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After making a new high in early-December the market entered a two month trading range which ended on the first trading day of February. We labeled the early-December SPX 2079 high as Major wave 3. Then the correction to SPX 1973 by mid-December Int. A, the uptrend to SPX 2094 in late-December Int. B, and the downtrend to SPX 1981 in early-February Int. C. This completed an irregular failed flat for Major wave 4. From that low the market has rallied 5.9% in less than two weeks to kick off Major wave 5.

As noted in the previous section: once the third wave is longer than the first, the fifth wave can then be any length. Normally, after an extended third wave, like we observed during Major wave 3. The fifth wave might be equal to the first wave. Should this be the case, the minimum we should expect for Major wave 5 is SPX 2199 (i.e. 1981 + 218). The market closed at its high on Friday: SPX 2097. However, this has not been just any normal market. It has been a market driven by central bank liquidity in an attempt to avoid the deflationary effects of a Saeculum crisis cycle. Or, as most like to call it a deflationary Secular cycle. As a result we are expecting Major wave 5 to advance well beyond the one to one relationship to Major wave 1. However, we are not quite ready to post a potential price/time target until the DOW makes all time new highs. Maybe next weekend. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.

SHORT TERM

After the downtrend low at SPX 1981 two weeks ago, we started seeing five wave patterns for the first time since December. We noted the first five wave advance: 2010-1991-2040-2028-2050, and called it a potential uptrend. The market rallied to SPX 2072 that same week, then pulled back to 2055 on Friday. During that advance the market generated a WROC buy signal, also suggesting an uptrend was underway. Then after Monday’s SPX 2041 low the market took off to the upside again in a five wave pattern: 2058-2049-2071-2058-2097. The uptrend was confirmed and new highs were hit on Friday.

Taking a conservative approach this uptrend may be all of Major wave 5, ending Primary III when it ends. Major wave 1 was only one uptrend too. Therefore, one could count the SPX 2072 high as the first wave, the SPX 2042 low as the second wave, and the current advance as part of wave 3. At SPX 2133 this third wave will equal the first wave, and this is close to our next OEW pivot at 2131. At SPX 2189 this third wave would have a 1.618 relationship to the first wave, which is close to our OEW 2198 pivot. Either way, the two pivots look like a good match for the internal structure of this uptrend.

A more aggressive approach would be to suggest this uptrend is only Intermediate wave i of Major 5. We actually tend to favor this approach for reasons we will explain when we present the price/time targets. Short term support is at SPX 2058 and SPX 2049, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a potential negative divergence.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.2%.

The European markets were all higher gaining 2.3% on the week.

The Commodity equity group soared to gain 5.5% on the week.

The DJ World index gained 1.75% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds have yet to confirm a downtrend but lost 0.3% on the week.

Crude is trying to confirm an uptrend and gained 0.6% on the week.

Gold remains in a weakening uptrend and lost 0.4% on the week.

The USD maybe rolling over after an eight month uptrend losing 0.6% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: holiday. Tuesday: the NY FED at 8:30, and the NAHB at 10am. Wednesday: Housing starts, Building permits, the PPI, Industrial production, the FOMC minutes, and a speech from FED governor Powell. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the Philly FED, and Leading indicators. Friday: Options expiration. Best to your extended weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules