Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
GDX Gold Stocks ETF - 25th June 19
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? - 25th June 19
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico - 25th June 19
The Next Great Depression in the Making - 25th June 19
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Good News for Euro Single Currency

Currencies / Euro Feb 17, 2015 - 01:06 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Currencies

Earlier today, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research showed that its index of German economic sentiment rose by 4.6 points to 53.0 this month from January’s reading of 48.4, which is the highest reading since February 2014. Thanks to these positive numbers, EUR/USD bounced off this week’s lows and climbed above 1.1400. Will we see the exchange rate above 1.1500 later this week?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:


EUR/USD: long (stop loss order at 1.1056)
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: short (stop loss order at 1.2876)
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none

EUR/USD

EUR/USD still remains above the support zone created by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (based on the entire 2000-2008 rally) and the 100% Fibonacci price projection, which means that an invalidation of the breakdown below these levels and its positive impact on the exchange rate are still in effect.

Having said that, let’s focus on the daily chart.

From this perspective, we see that EUR/USD moved lower and reached the lower border of the consolidation (marked with green) yesterday. Despite this small deterioration, the pair rebounded and climbed above 1.1400 once again. With this upswing, the exchange rate reached the blue declining resistance line, which is a neck line of the potential reverse head and shoulders formation. Therefore, in our opinion, if the pair moves higher and breaks above this line, it would be a bullish signal, which will trigger further improvement and an increase to around 1.1617, where the size of an upward move will correspond to the height of the formation and where the previously-broken 50-day moving average is. Nevertheless, before we see a realization of the above-mentioned scenario currency bulls will have to push the pair above 1.1533, where the upper border of the consolidation is.

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): Long positions with a stop loss order at 1.1056 are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

USD/CAD

The situation in the medium-term has deteriorated slightly as USD/CAD extended decline below the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and the long-term red declining resistance line. This is a bearish sign which suggests a drop to the 23.6% (around 1.2275) or even 38.2% (at 1.1973) Fibonacci retracement based on the entire Jun-Jan rally in the coming week.

What can we infer from the daily chart? Let’s check.

Quoting our previous Forex Trading Alert:

(…) although USD/CAD rebounded slightly, the pair is still trading under the long-term blue support/resistance line, which suggests further deterioration and a drop to at least the lower border of the consolidation (marked with blue) around 1.2350-1.2376.

Looking at the daily char, we see that the situation developed in line with the above-mentioned scenario and currency bears pushed the pair to our downside target. What’s next? Although the exchange rate could rebound from here as the support level based on the Feb 3 still holds, the current position of the indicators and the medium-term picture suggests that lower values of USD/CAD are still ahead us. If this is the case, the above-mentioned downside targets would be in play.

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop loss order at 1.2876 are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

AUD/USD

As you see on the weekly chart, an invalidation of the breakdown below the Jul 2009 lows and its potential positive impact on future moves is still in effect.

Having said that, let’s take a closer look at the daily chart.

On the above chart, we see that the situation in the very short-term has improved since our last Forex Trading Alert was posted and AUD/USD extended gains, climbing above 0.7800. Taking this fact into account, and combining it with the medium-term picture and buy signals generated by the indicators, we think that the exchange rate will move higher in the coming days. If this is the case, the initial upside target would be the upper line of the formation around 0.7905.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. 

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold Investment & Silver Investment
Sunshine Profits: Forex Trading

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules