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Stock Market Still Not Happy...Monthly Charts Troubling.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Mar 15, 2015 - 11:37 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Overheard in Jack's Trading Room: "I have only been a member for a few months, but have learned so much from you and all the other quality members on this site. The honesty, integrity and leadership you bring to this service is hard to find these days." -- "Cowgirl" - 3/13/15

And that doesn't mean we won't try much higher again. If a market is topping it is EXTREMELY unusual to not test the old highs, not only once, but potentially three or four times before trying to sell without coming back up. Like gold years ago, it took four or five attempts for the bubble to pop. The bulls would not give up the ship easily. They were trained to see higher prices. They were trained to buy pullbacks. It took many, many months for the market to top. Now it is true that we are dealing with unprecedented levels of froth, and it is true that the monthly charts are deathly, so it doesn't have to keep trying back up. But that is normal protocol, so we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that it won't be any different this time around.

Again, it could be different this time, but history is not on the side of the bulls, so even though things look bad from many different perspectives, try to keep your emotions somewhat in check before getting overly bearish. The market still has lots of proving to do before a sell-signal is set off, plus the market still has the words from Fed Yellen to deal with next Tuesday and Wednesday. You never know what she'll have to say. She can surprise, and tell folks no rate hikes are inevitable, which would likely create one, really nice rally, even if it's temporary. It's too early to get overly bearish, but it's not too early to be ready for more trouble. Adapt and adjust accordingly.

The market had become, for the first time in what seems like ages, extremely oversold on the short-term charts, and not only extremely oversold, but also for far longer than we've seen in forever. I told you that a short-term rally would likely occur from those conditions, and that's exactly what we saw Thursday. Friday, however, the trend lower continued without mercy for the bulls. The short-term charts unwound enough Thursday with the strong-price advance, and that was it for the moment. The bears came right back in on Friday, and down we went right from the start. The selling accelerated as Friday morning went on in to the early afternoon.

It was a bad day for the markets. No positive spin here. Nothing to take from it to give much hope, except, if you're hoping the Fed will do something special early on next week for the bulls. The trend is lower for now. No argument there. Respect that. It's my hope that the bull-bear-spread number, when we get it next Wednesday, will be 35% down from 46.4% three weeks back. By early April I'm hoping for sub 30%. Froth will be diminishing if you're looking for some good news from all this selling. The action we saw today only helps to get the froth out of the market in a big way. There's the real positive we're looking for bigger picture.

Today, you're getting a look at the monthly charts. You can see that it doesn't really matter where you look. One index after the other is flashing the type of look the bulls won't be happy to see. It's tough to look at them if you're bullish. If you're honest with yourself you'll recognize bearish charts. That doesn't mean they have to play out immediately. Like I mentioned above, the market can try to test the top many times.

Monthly charts can take longer to play out than the masses would think possible. That said, they're not pretty, and, thus, need to be respected for their potential damage to the bullish case. Look folks, things aren't too much fun if you're a locked and loaded bull right now. There's always hope where the Fed is concerned for early next week, if she paints a dovish-rates picture, but just be on guard for the potential these monthly charts are offering.

A not so friendly Fed, combined with these charts, would not be good for the short-term bulls. Next week will be more than exciting, regardless of your stance.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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