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Stock Market Keeps It Up......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Mar 21, 2015 - 10:45 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Last week there was tremendous anticipation coming in to this week about what Fed Yellen would say regarding interest rates. Wednesday of this week couldn't come soon enough, so folks could finally, once and for all, fully understand the short-term, if not longer-term, intentions of the Ms. Yellen. What words would she remove? What words would she add, and so on? The market fell some ahead of the report on Wednesday, and it was not doing well on Wednesday, until two o'clock in the afternoon when she came out and told everyone exactly what I thought she'd say. That she's putting off raising interest rates short term. She said that too many of the economic reports coming in just weren't solid enough to allow for a rate hike cycle of any kind to begin, even if it was a super slow one.

She talked about needing more time to see if the jobs that come in are more on the higher paying side of the scale. She also talked disappointingly about the world of housing, not to mention disappointments elsewhere, such as in GDP and manufacturing. Just not enough positives out there. The market loved the news and off we went. After flying higher on Wednesday, the market pulled back on Thursday, which made most think things were more in doubt about whether the market had priced in all the good news. Today we saw those fears alleviated. It was a strong day for the bulls that allowed us to finish quite overbought heading in to next week. Bottom line is the market remained positive in both price and most daily oscillators.

The market is obviously still dealing with froth. That will only have worsened due to the actions of the Fed this week. It's not what the market needed, but it's exactly what the market got. No way to spin froth positively. We're at ridiculously bad levels of bullishness. Hardly a bear to be found. Some protection has been bought, even by the bulls these past many weeks, thinking things couldn't keep going up. That's why the put-call readings have been escalating.

That, however, is not the truth of froth these days. It's still massive as evidenced by the VIX, which has been collapsing. Complacency is still the name of the game. When frothing bulls are actually buying protection, well, you know things are out of control. When you add in those ever-increasing, nasty monthly charts, you still have to have respect for the downside possibilities. They're not showing their hand at the moment, but don't ever get complacent in this game and have to learn the type of lesson that's so unnecessary.

Where we go from here is unclear, but you always stick with the trend in place. The market is still in rotation mode. Semis and banks one day. This and that the next. You get the idea. No mass running out of stocks altogether. If we blow through 2119 on the S&P 500 there's no telling just how far this puppy will go. We are very overbought short term, thus, be careful.

That said, on any drop of selling, expect new buyers to come back in as usual. Try to find sector charts that have done some unwinding and you should be in good shape over time. The Fed is not due to speak any time soon, thus, if the Fed Governor's keep their mouths shut, the market has somewhat of a free pass to try higher overall. No guarantee of course, but that would be the thinking. The market will now turn its attention to the upcoming manufacturing and jobs report during the first week of April.

If the reports are too hot the market will once again worry about rate hikes. If you love being bullish, you have to root for a bad economy. Only in the world of the stock market.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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