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Urgent Stock Market Message

Tory Attack on Ed Milliband Backfires as Labour Takes Opinion Polls Lead

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 13, 2015 - 04:26 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Last weeks decision to go on the personal offensive against Ed Miliband may have seemed like a good idea at the time amongst Conservative party strategists but the personal attacks suggesting that Ed Miliband would stab the UK in the back just as he did to his own brother David by being prepared to scrap Trident in exchange for SNP post election support was initiated by Tory Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, a statement that senior Conservatives from the Prime Minister down refused to criticise.


“Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he is willing to stab the United Kingdom in the back to become prime minister.”

“We saw in that leadership election just what he would do to get into power. We saw what he did to his own brother. We need to know what he would do.

"We can't be sure what kind of backstairs deal he is likely to do with the SNP... that is the uncertainty."

Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus .co.uk ElectionForecast .co.uk The Guardian
 

28th Feb

12th Apr 12th Apr 13th Apr 13th Apr
Conservative 296 267 277 283 271
Labour 262 277 284 274 271
SNP 35 54 48 42 51
Lib Dem 30 26 17 27 28
UKIP 5 3 2 1 4
Others 22 22 22 22 22

Now some four days on the polls have swing in Labours favour as voters were clearly put off by the personal attacks against the Labour leader. Whilst today Labour published their manifesto (election bribes booklet) which I am sure the political pundits will go through with a fine tooth comb. Though the strong probability for a hung parliament makes manifestos redundant, not just because politicians lie and make promises that they just cannot keep with a long list of excuses ready as to why they could not fulfill their promises, but that post election parties will negotiate the actual programme for government as part of a coalition agreement. So today's Labour and tomorrows Conservative Manifestos are approximately 50% BS fantasy election bribes.

Hung Parliament Seats Calculations

The opinion polls currently forecast seat averages for Conservatives on 274.5 and Labour on 276.5. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a truly messy and disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24.5) = 299 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 307 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24.5) = 301 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (49) =325 - SUCCESS, with perhaps the Lib Dems deciding to tag along for the limousine rides.

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

 

MO 28th Feb

12th Apr 7th Apr 31st Mar 28th Mar 21st Mar 12th Mar 5th Mar 26th Feb 10th Feb
Conservative 296 267 271 278 271 274 281 255 270 270
Labour 262 277 273 265 273 271 263 283 271 272
SNP 35 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 56 56
Lib Dem 30 26 26 25 24 24 24   26 25
UKIP 5 3 3 4 3 3 4   4 4
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22        

Keeps flip flopping between Labour and Conservative in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

12th Apr 7th Apr 29th Mar 22nd Mar 14th Mar 9th Mar 27th Feb 30th Jan
Conservative 296 277 275 274 267 262 267 265 265
Labour 262 284 286 287 300 301 298 301 297
SNP 35 48 48 48 48 46 55 46 50
Lib Dem 30 17 17 17 17 17   15 17
UKIP 5 2 2 2 1 1   1 1
Others 22 22 22 22 22        

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time that suggest will converge with other forecasters over the next few weeks.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

13th Apr 8th Apr 30th Mar 22nd Mar 11th Mar 25th Feb 13th Feb
Conservative 296 283 287 282 286 295 284 280
Labour 262 274 270 281 276 267 279 283
SNP 35 42 43 36 39 42 39 37
Lib Dem 30 27 27 27 26 24 25 27
UKIP 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Others 22 22 22 23 22      

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

The Guardian

 

MO 28th Feb

13th Apr 8th Apr 31st Mar 29th Mar 18th Mar 11th Mar 27th Feb 28th Jan
Conservative 296 271 272 278 275 277 279 276 273
Labour 262 271 273 271 271 269 266 271 273
SNP 35 51 51 50 53 53 52 51 49
Lib Dem 30 28 28 25 25 25 27 27 28
UKIP 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22      

After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.

Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

Overall the opinion pollsters are currently trending in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will be the largest party on election day on about 290 seats that is contrary to my forecast expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-54, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

In my judgement the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win by a widening margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The opinion polls suggest that the UK is going to take a gamble on a Labour SNP government which my analysis has consistently warned will be a losing bet for Britain (SNP Labour Death Embrace). However, as is often the case that the opinion polls can be wrong, just as the Scottish referendum reality was never the 50/50 proposition that opinion polls suggested at the time (45/55), and so today's marginal advantage to a Labour SNP Alliance should at least resolve in a continuation of the Conservative / Lib Dem Coalition. Though the Conservatives may try to go it alone with the objective of a second better engineered election outcome within the next 12 months as the economy continues to grow above trend.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50238.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

zahlen2k
14 Apr 15, 01:00
Election turn out and UKIP coalition

Hi Nadeem

Thanks for your prompt response to my previous question, really appreciate it.

In your coalition calculations, where you showed conservative plus DUP, is that including UKIP? If not do you not think UKIP would form a coalition with the Tories?

Also I know you once suggested in polling alot of people wouldnt want to say they are going to vote Tory, and also I would think people who want to change the current government, i.e. labour voters in marginal consistuancies who may not have benefitted from current policies, I think they may be more likely to show a higher turn out? What do you think?

Thanks again

Zahir


Nadeem_Walayat
14 Apr 15, 16:58
UKIP

Hi

I think UKIP are toxic for the Tories and they know it, they will only ever think of entering into government with UKIP of they start to get more than about 15 seats.

The tories will lose seats to Labour but gain from Lib Dems. Labour lost this election in Scotland with the rise of the SNP freebies without any consquences party.


zahlen2k
14 Apr 15, 20:58
5-10 UKIP seats

If the 5-10 UKIP seats could tilt it in there favour surely they would take it.

What you said about right for tenants to buy private properties is an interesting one. Labour have mentioned 3 year tenancies I believe recently.

Cheers


Nadeem_Walayat
15 Apr 15, 05:06
UKIP Conservative

It could but UKIP to Conservative are what SNP are to Labour.

It would sow the seeds for the Tories to tear themselves apart.


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