Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Unwinding Sentiment - Lateral To Nowhere - Fed On Deck Next Week

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jun 14, 2015 - 03:37 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

If the market is going to move laterally, it's really nice to see the worst day of the week occurring on a Friday. Leaving a nasty taste in the mouth of those relentless bulls. This is important, because it's before a weekend, and, thus, there's too much time to think, or, in other words, get emotional. Traders thinking we just can't break out no matter how close we get, and now they have to go in to the weekend on a down note. Turns bulls in to bears, or at least agnostic. We're begging for this, and somehow the market knows how to make things happen when it needs it to. There's nothing worse than a bad feeling late in the week, and, if this played out as I think it did, we may get our first reading below 30% on the bull-bear spread since last October, and only the third reading below 30% in roughly seventy weeks. That's unreal. It's hard to make sense of that when you normally would equate this type of behavior in terms of too much bullishness with a major market correction, if not a bear market.


We haven't come close to even a decent correction. Some pullbacks, for sure, but nothing that one would feel has been overwhelmingly bearish for equities for any extended period of time. Just nothing in terms of consistent selling that would allow the bulls to shake in their pants for a while. With the prior week giving us a reading of over 30%, maybe we'll finally see a nine as the first number. I know I would like to finally see some real fear kicking in. And not just bulls to agnostic, but I would really like to see the bulls turn bearish. Spike that number over 20% with force. That said, I'll take any reading that equals below 30% quite happily. The process seems to be very quietly taking place and that's good if you're a bull.

So how does one get to be bearish? Or at least calm their bullishness? Stay in a lateral market that continues to let the bulls down every time it seems it's ready for the next leg higher. If you push the bulls too far, meaning failure after failure, for now, almost six months, eventually they'll get annoyed. They'll get emotional, and that all happens with a base that never ends, or at least never seemingly does. It's almost six months for crying out loud. It's almost unimaginable that this market hasn't been able to get out of its way without being bullish or bearish for so long. To head fake up and head fake down, over and over just when one direction seems guaranteed to play on everyone's emotions.

We are basically at the same level we were at the end of December when the S&P 500 printed 2093. That was on December 29, and here we are on June 12, and at the same level. For a long time the bulls simply said that it's fine that we're moving laterally. It's healthy. No problem. That way of thinking is going away now. The lateral action isn't bullish or bearish. One has to wonder just how long this nonsense can continue onward, but it is what it is and you need to adapt to the base, so as to not get overly involved at just the wrong time meaning buying when it looks real good. It's best to buy weakness, not strength. The base is still very much with us and shows no signs of imminent death.

Two relevant features for next week. It's getting closer and closer to doom for Greece as the days pass towards June 31, when they have promised to bundle all their weekly overdue payments in to one grand payment. There have been negotiations ongoing, but no progress has been made. Lots of walking away from the table, which isn't a good thing. The Euro Zone is playing big-time hard ball here, while Greece, I think, expects the usual white knight to ride on in and save the day. You know what, they're probably right, but the Euro Zone is playing a strong game of chicken here. Lots of anger by the rest of the Euro Zone.

They're tired of bailing out the weak and the sick. They may have no choice, but it's getting ugly. This is critical to watch as the days get closer to the thirty first of the month. On top of that, we also have to watch the words out of the Fed at their meeting next Tuesday. Will they or won't they raise rates now. It's highly doubtful, but the market is tuned in to every word out of Fed Yellen's mouth. Will she hint that one is inevitable in the near future, or simply leave things open based on economic reports to come in over the coming months? Every word will be scrutinized. So there's lots on deck next week that can be a huge market mover. Nothing is really safe. Buying weakness is best. Chasing strength is not.

In the meantime, we watch the base range from S&P 500 2040 to 2134 with keen interest as always.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in