Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

GBP: Battle of the Central Banks

Currencies / British Pound Jun 29, 2015 - 06:32 PM GMT

By: Richard_Cox

Currencies

Since the beginning of April, we have seen some relatively strong upside moves in the British Pound (GBP).  For many, these moves were surprising, given the massive declines that were posted by the currency in 2014.  But all of us with experience in the financial markets know that no single trend can last forever, no matter how strong the technical or fundamental basis for the initial reasoning.  This turned out to be the case for the GBP over the last few weeks and we have now seen the GBP/USD overcome important psychological levels just above the 1.5750 mark.


So if we are looking to make long-term investments in the regional economy or its currency, it is first important to assess what is likely to happen at the Bank of England with regard to its interest rate policy.  This is important because, from a relatively perspective, the BoE could be slowing down in its commentary to potentially normalize interest rate policy and this presents some stark contrasts with what is being seen at the US Federal Reserve. 

For the GBP/USD, this is important because it could hinder gains.  But for stocks, this poses some interesting opportunities.  According to recent reports from MediaGroup London, we have started to see a rise in digital advertising revenues that tend to be associated with stock rallies on the larger indices.  If this turns out to be true, stocks could have this contribute to a dual positive of improved revenues and lower macro rate costs and this could be something that propels rallies into the second half of this year.

So when we are looking at the battle of the central banks, it now appears as though the GBP could suffer if we don't start to see a substantive rise in inflationary consumer pressures.  This is likely the only thing that could turn the BoE’s hand in the short term.  If the Federal Reserve does make good in its intentions to raise rates, we will more than likely see a surge in the greenback that will put added pressure on the GBP.  This does not mean that investments in the region should be avoided, but it does mean that investors will need to select their asset classes carefully if we see more of the same rhetoric from these two central banks.  Initial support in the GBP/USD rests at 1.5250 and a downside break here would likely trip many stop losses for longs that were looking for another test of the highs.

By Richard Cox

© 2015 Richard Cox - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in