Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold Price Peculiar 6 Month Cycles

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Jul 13, 2015 - 12:56 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

In this report I'm going to show you some more of the same precious metals stocks we've been following as more are joining the impulse move to the downside adding confirmation. Unlike the US stocks markets that have been trading sideways since the December high of last year, the precious metals stocks are in a confirmed impulse move down and that's where the real money is made.


Before we get into the individual precious metal stocks I know a lot of folks follow the six month time cycles for gold which has a good track record for finding a good low to buy. There is defiantly a six month cycle bottom but sometimes it inverts meaning it will be a top instead of a bottom. As it stands right now we are at the point where the six month time cycle is due. On the three year chart below is the six month time cycles that I have followed for many years which shows this time of the year is often a good place to take a position. Also on this six month time cycles chart you will see two inverted six month time cycles that show, instead of making a low, gold was making a high, red arrows. When that six month cycle bottom inverts gold generally will decline for close to six months, red circles. Our current situation is shown by the last red arrow on the right hand side of the chart with the question mark.

Daily Gold Chart

The next chart for gold shows the six month time cycles going back to the 2008 crash low. From the crash low in 2008 to the bull market top in 2011 you could bet the farm that the six month time cycle bottom was going to come into play. Along with the Chartology at the time, red consolidation pattern, that near parabolic rally was a whole lot easier to play than our four year bear market that is punctuated by just two consolidation patterns so far, the blue two year rectangle at the top of the chart and our current two year falling wedge pattern that still hasn't broken down yet. This six month time cycle is slightly different than the one above by a few weeks or so.

Weekly Gold Chart

Shortly after I became aware of the bull market in the precious metals stocks in the spring of 2002 everyone was taking about the six month time cycle for gold. As I was curious I built out my own chart for the HUI which also shows the six month time cycles. It quickly became apparent to me that there was something to the six month time cycles for the PM complex. When I began working on the six month cycle bottoms for the HUI I had an epiphany moment similar to the one I had on the US dollar when I first discovered the two huge fractal bottoms that long term members will remember. Keep in mind we are taking about the middle of 2003 when I discovered what I call, THE SEQUENTIAL 6 MONTH TIME CYCLES, for the lack of a better name.

When I looked at the bull market that begun in 2000 for the HUI the six month time cycle stuck out like a sore thumb. The chart below is a static chart that goes from 2000 to the 2008 H&S top. The thin black vertical lines are the six month time cycles and the heavy thick vertical lines are the sequential six month time cycles tops. What I discovered back then was each six month cycle top was growing further apart by six months. Note the first impulse move up in the HUI's brand new bull market, marked with the red A. That rally lasted six months before the first consolidation pattern was built. Now notice there are two six month time cycles between the tops at A and B with one thin black vertical line showing a six month cycle low within the red triangle. Next you have the rally to the sequential six month cycle top at C which is made up of three six month time cycles before the next consolidation pattern started to build out.

Now we're entering into the fourth sequential six month time cycle. Note the reversal points within the red triangle that shows each reversal point came during the smaller six month time cycle. This sequential six month time cycle was actually off by six months as shown by D? which should have been the next top. I clearly remember thinking at the time, what did this mean, as the HUI wasn't following the script as it had before. I still knew the smaller six month time cycles were dominate and the Chartology suggested that the HUI was breaking out of a two year triangle consolidation pattern so I held on. The blue arrows shows that impulse move that lasted one year and ended at the first reversal point in the red triangle within the 5th sequential six month cycle.The fifth sequential six month top ended during the formation of the 2008 H&S top. It didn't nail the top to a tee but again with Chartology on my side I could see the H&S top forming and mentioned it at a website I was posting on at the time. I'm not going to mention anyone's name Sir Fullgoldcrown, but at that time nobody and I mean nobody was looking for a serious correction back then. I believe I took more flack for calling that H&S top than any other top I've ever called.

Editor's Note: http://rambus1.com/?p=12205

One last note on the chart below. Notice where the 2008 crash low stopped, right on a six month time cycle that launched the sixth sequential cycle top which I will show you after this chart.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart

This next chart starts where the last chart above left off. The sixth sequential cycle top was now three years long with the sequential six month cycle top due in May of 2011 point F on the chart below. Again notice the smaller thin vertical lines which mark the smaller six month time cycles within the massive H&S top.

That brings us up to the seventh sequential six month time cycle top. This was the first major failure for the sequential cycle tops at G which also marks the smaller six month time cycle low that came last year in November. The smaller six month time cycle marked the beginning of our latest consolidation phase that I believed ended at the April high of this year. Earlier in the bull market the six month time cycles were usually in May and November but for the last several years October and April have marked the six month cycles.

One last very important note on the chart below. Notice where the next six month time cycle comes into play. Does October of 2015 ring a bell? If we see the HUI falling in to the October time frame I think there will be initially a strong bounce that may mark the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bottoming formation that will take some time to develop. How long is anyone's guess but the initial bounce off a bottom is usually very strong. Think of a super ball. The first bounce will be the highest and strongest.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart 2

This last chart for the HUI shows the complete sequential six month time cycles going all the way back to the beginning of the bull market in 2000 to the present. I've always said the precious complex creates some of the best chart patterns and symmetry of all different descriptions that you just don't find everywhere. That is one reason I've never believed in the manipulation theories. If the precious metals complex was being manipulated then I believe you would have very ugly Chartology along with cycles and symmetry. Nature strives for symmetry and we are just a part of nature creating these chart patterns.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart 3

Now I would like to update you on some of the PM stocks I've been showing you over the last month or so that are showing us what is actually happening under the surface. I have place some price objectives at the bottom of the charts so we can get a feel for when this next low, that I'm expecting in October, to occur.

Lets start with ABX which is now testing the bottom rail its blue rectangle consolidation pattern.

American Barrick Weekly Chart

Anyone who has bought ABX over the last 20 years is underwater.

American Barrick Monthly Chart

Is AEM building out a double top at reversal point #7?

Agnico Eagle Weekly Chart

AGQ is a silver etf that is in the process of backtesting its neckline.

AGQ Weekly Chart

ASA is following through to the downside after breaking out from its red triangle consolidation pattern just two weeks ago.

ASA Weekly Chart

The monthly chart for ASA shows just how critical this area is right here. Note all the previous lows going all the way back to 2003.

ASA Monthly Chart

ASM is still working its way lower after breaking out from a H&S top.

ASM Weekly Chart

AU is moving lower after backtesting the bottom rail of its blue triangle consolidation pattern.

Anglogold Weekly Chart

AUY is breaking below its 2008 crash low after breaking out from the red bearish falling wedge.

Yamana Gold Weekly Chart

These are only the PM Stocks starting with and "A" But one can get the idea .The rest of the Multitude of PM Miner's Charts that I follow will be posted in a separate post for Subscribers :

The reason I'm spending so much time and energy showing you all these precious metals stocks is to give you confidence that the impulse move is for real. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see all these consolidation patterns breaking down from the November low from last year. We are in an impulse move down in the precious metals stocks that has a very good chance to run until October / November of this year. That's still another three to four months away and will be right at a year which is normal for the pm stocks. Go back and look at the HUI time cycles charts I posted earlier. You will see several of the big impulse moves up and out of the red consolidation patterns that took to close a year to complete. These types moves don't come around everyday.

When you're looking at your minute charts and start to get nervous on a small pattern that might be forming see how it relates to the big picture that I just showed you on all these stocks above. The big picture trumps the minute charts in the long run. This impulse move still has much further to run before it runs out of gas per all the consolidation patterns that are just now breaking out to the downside. October / November is a reasonable time for this impulse move to finish. I hope we all end up at the finish line together...

All the best

Gary (for Rambus Chartology)

http://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2015 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules